ILSNOW Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 skilling Good Saturday all! We have quite a weather situation ahead of us! Based on everything we can see at this point, the Chicago area is on the verge of a bit of weather history--and dangerous weather history at that. The onset of the area's second snowstorm in less than a week is just hours away--a snow to occur with wind and lake-enhancement--and a snow which is to be followed by a record cold blast, the likes of which we've not seen for 2 decades! Temps will sink sub-zero Sunday evening and won't break above 0 until sometime Tuesday night.It's a growing possibility that the city is to see it's second accumulation of a foot or more snow in just 5 days time! Our latest RPM model runs are headed in that direction; so's the Weather Service's high resolution 4km WRF, which performed to a tee on this past week's storm. I'm posting a set of accumulation forecasts, the first our 4km RPM model's 36 hr fcst through 6pm Sunday; the next the RPM 12km resolution snow fcst the next 72 hours and the 3rd the latest 4km NWS WRF model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 From Skilling on FB. Good Saturday all! We have quite a weather situation ahead of us! Based on everything we can see at this point, the Chicago area is on the verge of a bit of weather history--and dangerous weather history at that. The onset of the area's second snowstorm in less than a week is just hours away--a snow to occur with wind and lake-enhancement--and a snow which is to be followed by a record cold blast, the likes of which we've not seen for 2 decades! Temps will sink sub-zero Sunday evening and won't break above 0 until sometime Tuesday night.It's a growing possibility that the city is to see it's second accumulation of a foot or more snow in just 5 days time! Our latest RPM model runs are headed in that direction; so's the Weather Service's high resolution 4km WRF, which performed to a tee on this past week's storm. I'm posting a set of accumulation forecasts, the first our 4km RPM model's 36 hr fcst through 6pm Sunday; the next the RPM 12km resolution snow fcst the next 72 hours and the 3rd the latest 4km NWS WRF model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 There is going to be some MAJOR drifting with this. I'm really hoping so! May be my favorite winter storm by-product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Speaking of analogs.....I have seen 01JAN 1979 popping relatively frequently....not necessarily as number 1....but in the top 10....FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Uncle Ukie. Wide area of snow vs the NAM/GEM along the S/E side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z euro like lots area for 6-10 hr 18 .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Update 1/4/14 - Dangerous Bitter Cold Storm to Impact Southeast Lower Michigan Sunday Into Monday!1230PM; Latest model reviews and Storm Outlookhttp://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/01/dangerous-bitter-cold-storm-to-impact.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 this 4km NAM is probably a little on the high side. It goes from 6" at Bowling Green to 10" at Toledo. 10-12" for Oakland County MI, Michiana area, Chicago, 6-10" across Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 uptick in returns north of PIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 euro gets the .5 back to chicago….big hit for laf and indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z ECMWF with a bump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This been posted yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro much colder than NAM/GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 i'll take it^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro excellent for S/E Michigan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Oh pity me really. Euro was my last hope, guess that moved NW too, lol. Im done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z ECMWF with a bump NW.Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This been posted yet? Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro excellent for S/E Michigan.. For Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro SLP tracks from IN/IL/KY border to Wilmington OH to just south of YYZ. Definitely a tick NW at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For Toronto? Its still being generous for YYZ. Shows about 4-7", lol. Similar to the GFS. Maybe we can work some CAD? idk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Pretty much game over for Columbus. Nothing is worse than going from single digit temps, to rain, to the mother of all cold air masses. Awful, just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 NMM loop is awesome. Give or take an hour either way, it's 6 hours of wickedness here. Bonus that'll happen mostly during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Its still being generous for YYZ. Shows about 4-7", lol. Similar to the GFS. Maybe we can work some CAD? idk! Wow. Really unexpected. This storm is going to be a nail biter. Would you bet on the Canadian and NAM vs. the GFS and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 have to admit, i'm pretty jealous right now. have fun with this guys. cant wait for the pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 have to admit, i'm pretty jealous right now. have fun with this guys. cant wait for the pics! That's ok you will get another 50-70 inches before the year is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Wow. Really unexpected. This storm is going to be a nail biter. Would you bet on the Canadian and NAM vs. the GFS and Euro? It depends. The upper air temperatures remain below freezing on most of the models, its the SFC temperatures that are the issue. Maybe we can work in some low level cooling given our snow cover. Away from the Lake, 401 and north, has the best chance of staying all snow atm. It'll be wet snow btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Wow. Really unexpected. This storm is going to be a nail biter. Would you bet on the Canadian and NAM vs. the GFS and Euro? I'm still going with 6-7" for YYZ The inconsistency of the Canadian's track makes me not buy it. Way too NW. It's also way too cold for rain. Upper levels are not going to be above +2C for SURE. NAM and GEM are crazy. GFS has been pretty decent. I don't even know why anyone bothers listening to the NAM unless it's 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It depends. The upper air temperatures remain below freezing on most of the models, its the SFC temperatures that are the issue. Maybe we can work in some low level cooling given our snow cover. Away from the Lake, 401 and north, has the best chance of staying all snow atm. It'll be wet snow btw. The stage seems set for a Battle of the Model Titans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm still going with 7" for YYZ The inconsistency of the Canadian's track makes me not buy it. Way too NW. It's also way too cold for rain. Upper levels are not going to be above +2C for SURE. NAM is crazy. GFS has been pretty decent. I don't even know why anyone bothers listening to the NAM unless it's 12 hours out. I hope you're right. Wrong thread, I know, but do you still think YYZ can hit -15 F this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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