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January 3-6th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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IND noted the definite NW trend..

 

 

SOME CONCERN ABOUT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY AND HOW MUCH
WARMER AIR GETS INTO THE SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SHOW FZRA OR EVEN RAIN
FOR KBMG WITH PERHAPS A MIX AT KIND SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWERING ON PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT FOR NOW FEEL KIND WILL STAY
SNOW WHILE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT KBMG.

THUS WENT LIFR IN SNOW AT KLAF/KHUF BY 14Z AND KIND BY 15Z.
MENTIONED SNOW/RAIN AT KBMG IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT 15Z.

 

 

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I'm going to ride this one out in Allegan tomorrow. Looks like LES is in the cards there.

  

Yep! We will get LES in this area too, but Allegan does best with NW flow. You should probably get traveling today though, if you can.

Yes. Does it not show in my post location? Good luck to you too Harry!

 

 

Hoping this mornings model projections hold serve. If so you will be 100% on the money with that call. Good Luck Blackrock! We've been waiting for this one :sled:

Thanks, bud! You too! You have quite a bit of snow on the ground too, don't you? I have well over a foot right now.

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something's gotta give...

 

differences via the 15Z RAP vs 12Z GFS @ 00Z 05JAN...

12Z GFS...

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_012_500_vort_ht_l.gif

 

 

RAP will level out some.

 

Probably reach a compromise between the GFS and NAM.

 

Without a classic closed H5 low this can only amplify so much.

 

 

Secondly the last few adjustments on the RAP have been to dig more.

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Yep! We will get LES in this area too, but Allegan does best with NW flow. You should probably get traveling today though, if you can.

Thanks, bud! You too! You have quite a bit of snow on the ground too, don't you? I have well over a foot right now.

 

About 6" OTG. Not bad for my locale. Surely beats starting with bare ground for a nice event like this. Time will tell if it becomes truly epic around SWMI. Has the potential to though. Fun times, eh?

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