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January 3-6th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Latest Canadian is showing rain for Toronto.

I expect the GFS and Euro to cave with their runs today.

What a turnaround!

Most in the Toronto area are already sick of winter, so they'll likely be happy with this outcome.

I expect the incoming cold air to be greatly moderated in my region now that there will not be a fresh snow cover for it to move across.

If it rains Im moving to the Arctic...

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LOT update

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
956 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
956 AM CST

WORKING ON A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST NOW TO MOVE UP START
TIME AND SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH IN THE
CWA. HI-RES MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON INTENSIFYING A BAND OF
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH
FAIRLY STRONG ASCENT IN REGIONS OF WEAKLY NEGATIVE EPV INDICATING
A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE/MORE INTENSE BANDING TO DEVELOP. THIS
PROCESS SEEMS TO BE ALREADY QUICKLY EVOLVING WITH BAND OF 30 TO
NEARLY 40DBZ SNOW BREAKING OUT FROM LEE COUNTY NE INTO THE NW
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. IN ADDITION TO MODERATELY STRONG ASCENT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR LARGE AGGREGATE FLAKE GROWTH INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
SNOW WITHIN THE BAND. CURRENT THINKING THAT 6-10" COULD EASILY
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN THIS BAND AS IT SHIFTS VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AFFECTING THE I-88 CORRIDOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ENE INTO CHICAGO AND FAR NORTHERN SUBURBS.


UPDATED WSW WITH EXPANDING WARNING IS BEING WORKED ON NOW ALONG
WITH UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP.

IZZI/KJB

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Local Toronto T.V mets are saying 10-20  cm. maybe.

 

Have always watched Don Paul on WIVB in Buffalo for general regional overview.

He had a light mixed precip. on his maps. Nothing much for synoptic system in Golden Horseshoe...

what he seemed concerned about was wind chills and lake snows after.

 

There isn't an agreed general consensus for this storm in YYZ anywhere.

 

Posted this last night.

It really seems hard for any YYZ mets to still have a definite forecast (totals, precip. type, etc..)

 

Strange system still for YYZ less than 48 hrs. out.

Heres a closer look. Widespread 4-5" amounts in the GTA. Areas north of newmarket get into the 6"+ snows.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

 

Hmm its a sharp dividing line, but thanks for that! A general 4-6" is the common theme amongst most models since 12z today expect the 0z Nam. 

 

Yup, anywhere from 10-20 cm all snow was common call last night. 

My favourite met. Don Paul in Buffalo showed little accumulation up this way.

It's absolutely insane. The models just don't seem to know what to do with this system!!

This is what makes this the oddest synoptic system. Only sure thing is strong winds and bone chilling cold afterwards, for a bit.

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Come on, snowfreak, share the snow love! :hug:  :snowing:

:weight_lift:

I dont mind sharing...but this is as good a chance as it gets to get me some rarified snowdepth.'

 

Though I have been measuring snow since 1995 when I was 12, I didnt start doing snowdepth since the winter of 1999-00 (It finally occurred to me, back in my novice days, hey, since we had a 2 foot snowpack in Jan 1999...maybe I need to start doing snowdepth AND snowfall, not just snowfall...of course nothing has come close since).

 

So since 1999-00 my peak snow depths:

15" - Feb 2011 (peaked at 16" one evening but for consistency I do 8am obs time)

14" - Jan 2009

13" - Dec 2000

13" - Dec 2008

10-12" - numerous

 

Many times I have had 10-12" depths...as you can see though, its been rare to sneak over the hump of a foot. With a current depth of 9", this is a golden chance to start one hell of a base.

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