RyanDe680 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 6z GFS is very different for us here in chicago with it dropping from 8-12 inches on areas that are forecasted to currently get 4-6. +1 LOT seems conservative on the snow amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What are my chances of getting into O'Hare at 9:45 tonight? meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 +1 LOT seems conservative on the snow amounts unless we see a major step back with the 12z guidance, we'll see upgrade this afternoon. Especially given the winds and cold to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ^ meh is right. I bet they start canceling flights this morning, if they haven't done so already. Good luck Mimillman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NAM predictions? I'll say 996mb over Lucas Oil...14" for Alek, 18" for Geos! It's a runaway freight train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Forecast discussion from CMC (Environment Canada). Looks like they favour a more SE/E track. For those in the Toronto area, let's hope they're correct. FXCN01 CWAO 040930MAIN WX DISCUSSIONATLANTIC STORM...MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY OF DEEPENING ATLANTICSTORM MOVG AWAY FROM NFLND EARLY IN PD. NAM SHOWING MORE QPF OVR THE AVALON ANDTHE BONAVISTA PENINSULAS EARLY IN PD AND NAM HIER AMTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NFLNDON THE 06H QPF VERIF VLD 06Z VERIFIED BETTER.COLD ARTIC AIR OVER QC MOVES IN OVER NEWFOUNDLAND BEHIND THAT SYSTEM WITHSTREAMERS EXPECTED OFF THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND HI WIND CHILL FOR NORTHERNNFLND. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A RIDGE OF HIPRESSURE.AB CLIPPER OVER UPR MS VLY TRACKING TO JMSBA THAN RETROGRADING TO HNSBA...MORE THAN ONE LOW IN THE ELONGATED TROF EARY IN PD AS SHOWN ON 06Z ANAL THENMDLS FAIRLY AGREE TO MOVE ONE SFC LO TO JSMBA BY 36H, GLB BEING ON THE WESTSIDE OF THE TRACK AND UKMET ON THE EAST SIDE WITH REG AND GEPS OFFERING A GOODCOMPROMISE HERE. EXCEPT FOR UKMET KEEPING TRACK TO THE EAST, MDLS AGREE TORETROGRADE THAT SYSTEM INTO HNSBA BY END OF PD. BY 48H THO REG IS LAGGINGBEHIND ALOFT WITH DEEPER FARTHER W UPR TROF OVER WRN ONT INTO MN AND ISLIKLEY TOO DEEP AND TOO FAR WEST WITH TRAILING SFC TROF ACRS THE GRTLKS BY MIDPD. SOME ENHANCED QPF EXPECTED OFF THE GRTLKS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EARLY IN PD.06H QPF VERIF VLD AT 06Z SHOWING THAT CAN MDLS UNDERFCST LCLLY AMTS NORTH OFLAKE SUP. AS SYSTEM RETROGRADES TO HNSBA PUSHING STG WINDS THE THE WRN HNSBACST, CMC OBJ SIG WX CHARTS SHOWING POT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOPALG THE WRN CST OF HSNBA.APPROACHING SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE GRTLKS...REG IS THE DEEPEST WITH UPR TROF OVER THE STATES ON DAY 2 AND MORE INTENSEWITH SHRTWV MOVG TO INDIANA BY 48H LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ITS FCST OF A DEEPERFASTER SYSTEM TRACKING TOO FAR WEST SOUTH OF THE GRTLKS ON DAY 2 AND LIKELY TOSPREAD TOO MUCH QPF TOO FAST INTO GRTLKS. EXCEPT FOR NAM BEING TOO FAR NORTH,REMAINING MDLS AGREE WITH THE MAX PCPN AXIS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONT.FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INTNL BORDERDURG PD.INCREASING GRADIENT OVR YK...REGIONAL ON THE STG SIDE MOVG AK UPR RDG INTO YK BY END OF PD. GLB OFFERS ABETTER CONSENSUS WITH FOREIGN MDLS WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER FEATURE. MDLS INFAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT MOVG EPAC SYSTEM NORTH OF ALUTN BY END OF DP AND FNTL WVINTO SRN YK INCREASING WINDS OVER THAT AREA AND GIVING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODEMPSTER AND NORTHERN YK CST.END OUELLET http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/fx/fxcn01.cwao..txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 That's the dilemma. When we cream you guys snowstorm wise (dec 26, 2012...dec 14, 2014...dec 31, 13 - jan 3, 14) you get pixie dust. When you cream us, its pick which evil is at play (dryslot, sleet, rain). Wow. You are an amazing forecaster. Josh whats your secret. How much are you getting? ... I know you meant 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NAM predictions? I'll say 996mb over Lucas Oil...14" for Alek, 18" for Geos! It's a runaway freight train... SE of 6z but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Overnight model summary for YYZ is below. Euro has stayed consistent on amounts but the GFS is slowly warming up temp profiles towards the consensus. The GFS has come down from the 9"+ amounts that it previously had to accums near 7" as ratios have lowered to near 10:1. Nice to know we've reached a consensus. 0z euro: 6-7" 6z GFS: 7-9" 6z NAM: Trace SREF mean: 4.8" RGEM: 2-4" Ec ENS: 5-6" GEFS/R: 4-5" Hopefully the 12z runs come to a consensus. The 6z NAM is concerning, but hopefully the 12z NAM makes a correction in the other direction. My first call is the same as SSC, 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The only time we ever seem to beat downriver during very cold events is where a lucky band sets up over central Oakland over to Shiawassee county. Usually we always get poor snowfall rates in storms like this past weekend when cold air isn't an issue for either of us. It's that band with high ratios. It occurs in several storms and sometime steals the show as it did a few years ago with a perfect track for our area yet areas well NW of here got the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think this is a rare time where I have about 75-100 miles if wiggle room on the NAM before my snow totals get changed much. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think this is a rare time where I have about 75-100 miles if wiggle room on the NAM before my snow totals get changed much. Sent from my HTC6435LVW I also like the fact this storm is not complete wrapped up before it starts. The storms already wrapped up as the head into MI seem to fail in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This is got your old fashioned north of 59 major totals written all over it. I have mentioned this to Freak before but me and Jonger for us to get a heavy accumulating storm we need his back yard to be near the Rain/Snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 NAM might be coming NW. Fronto snows also more impressive by 21z, right through chi metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The 06Z NAM surface wind fields would place the surface low closer to KIND than where the MSLP field would indicate. Am curious as to what 12Z shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Rain probs up to 34% for IND on the 9z SREF. Plume mean snowfall off the 9z run. Reductions for Indy and south. BMG: 5.9" (15.8" high, 0.8" low) HUF: 9.5" (17.0" high, 2.5" low) FWA: 9.5" (18.2 high, 2.9" low) IND: 8.7" (16.2" high, 2.0" low) LAF: 11.2" (16.7" high, 5.1" low) MIE: 7.8" (15.1" high, 1.7" low) SBN: 15.4" (23.9" high, 8.0" low) VPZ: 12.9" (17.6" high, 7.5" low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 NAM might be coming NW. Fronto snows also more impressive by 21z, right through chi metro looks p similar at surface/850/700...maybe a hair south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Frontal band snows are south of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Wow. You are an amazing forecaster. Josh whats your secret. How much are you getting? ... I know you meant 2013 its early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 looks p similar at surface/850/700...maybe a hair south 500's looks like it featured a little bit better phase-ish (but I could be wrong...still fighting the flu) fronto snows are moderate/heavy in the heart of the city at 4Z and 5Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Frontal band snows are south of the 0z run. As they were on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 NAM might be coming NW. It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 NAM is coming NW I think...big time possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I like my 7-14" call for SEMI i think its fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This is got your old fashioned north of 59 major totals written all over it. I have mentioned this to Freak before but me and Jonger for us to get a heavy accumulating storm we need his back yard to be near the Rain/Snow line. Totally fine with you beating me...totally NOT fine getting any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I am actually pulling for this system to go more northwest to leave us with a favorable wind direction at my location for 3 days of epic lake effect. I'll take the warmer temps and little bit of rain as a sacrifice for what might be one of the best lake effect events in awhile for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Totally fine with you beating me...totally NOT fine getting any rain. Your not getting Rain. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Sfc low is stronger and a touch west at 21hr. 1008mb over northeast TX vs 1010mb over TX/AR/LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 SLP looks a tad NW @ 16Z 05JAN ... maybe a millibar stronger or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 QPF shield now reaching DVN/Cycloneville/RFD at 24hr. Sfc low over Little Rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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