Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Ok, I found the zone forecast. I'll read it, too. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm just up 75, Campbell County is usually a short, good trip to see snow if it's not happening in Knoxville. Just need a 4x4 and good winter driving skills. Get off at 134 and turn left, turn left again at Shoney's and head up Caryville Mtn. 3000-3500 feet at the top, It makes a big difference in snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Well, I'd have been headed in the wrong direction to see your snow! I thought Campbell County was Crossville for some reason. I grew up in Southeast TN and obviously don't know my counties up this way very well. Especially going up 75, though I know 75 well going south. It can make a huge difference in snow amounts. My old boss used to live in Halls (I don't know how to get there either) on the other side of Knox and he'd taunt me with pictures when he came to work to show me how much more he got than we did here. We lived up near Erwin/Unicoi for a while and I loved the snow we'd get up there. For Farragut, the accumulations have gone from 1-3, to 1-2 to now saying less than one inch on what I was calling my NWS zip code page which was actually like the zone forecast with the seven day forecast at the top. So I may have stayed awake to sleep late for nothing. That was all since about 1 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 515 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT... .AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-VAZ002-052100- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0002.140106T0300Z-140107T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.140106T0300Z-140107T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WC.A.0001.140106T2000Z-140107T1700Z/ JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI- SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST MONROE-WISE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK... ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...COKER CREEK... WISE...NORTON 515 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * EVENT...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 BELOW ZERO AND LOWER AT TIMES. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. THE LOW WIND CHILLS CAN RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR EVEN DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. A WIND CHILL WATCH MEANS THE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THESE CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY RESULT IN FROST BITE...AND CAN LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE OUTDOORS SHOULD PLAN TO DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1014 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014...AN ARCTIC BLAST WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STRIKE MIDDLETENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....THE LEADING EDGE OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWESTMIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND 3 PM ...ACROSS THE I 65 CORRIDOR AROUND6 PM...AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AROUND 8 PM. AS THIS COLD FRONTPASSES...RAIN WILL SUDDENLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURESPLUMMET.FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU...BURSTS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR FROMLATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS.FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND PLATEAU...SNOW WILL BEGINAROUND 8 PM...AND THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. LOCALLY HEAVIERAMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES COULD OCCUR FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROMJAMESTOWN TO MONTEREY.THE MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL AND THE EVENING SNOWFALL WILLFREEZE RAPIDLY ON ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES. ROAD CONDITIONS WILLDETERIORATE VERY QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES FALLINTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE IN THE NIGHT...ROAD TREATMENT WILLBECOME LESS EFFECTIVE...SO ICY AND SNOWY PATCHES WILL LIKELYREMAIN...AND WILL KEEP TRAVEL CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS INTO MONDAYMORNING.AN ADDITIONAL DANGER WILL BE THE COLD CONDITIONS. ACTUALTEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND GUSTYNORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW ZEROLATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISALSO IN EFFECT.ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OFMIDDLE TN...WIND CHILL VALUES OF AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AREEXPECTED. FOR THIS REASON...A WINDCHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECTFOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MIDDLE TN...STEWART...MONTGOMERY...ROBERTSON...SUMNER...DAVISON...CHEATHAM...DICKSON...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS AND BENTON.WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS...FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIACOULD OCCUR IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORSSHOULD DRESS WARMLY WITH LAYERS OF CLOTHING...AND LIMIT THEIR TIMEOUTDOORS. PEOPLE WHO MUST TRAVEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE COLDCONDITIONS WITH EXTRA CLOTHING AND BLANKETS.WITH WIND CHILL WARNING CONDITIONS...THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR ANDSTRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THISWILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IFPRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Even though we're past the point of the GFS and Euro being useful, I'll note that at 12z they both show a potential for 2-3 inches across east TN. Also, the HRRR is starting to show a wide spread 2 inch burst from just east of Nashville to the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 forecasted high was 49, it is 54 hope this doesnt bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 forecasted high was 49, it is 54 hope this doesnt bust That arctic air line means business, even if we hit 75 degrees it would drop crazy quick. This might bust regardless, but I'm not worried about higher temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 That arctic air line means business, even if we hit 75 degrees it would drop crazy quick. This might bust regardless, but I'm not worried about higher temps. quicker changeover i think is needed to hit the 2 inch mark, hopefully it catches up soon enough...and hopefully we get some nice NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 HRRR through midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm pretty sure me, and anyone in north Georgia aren't getting anything from this. The cold just doesn't look like it will catch up in time for a changeover here. Flurries look possible but hey, FROPAS almost never work out anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I see this one as, get an inch, be happy, get lucky and get more than an inch, be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I did see a report of someplace that got 2 inches in the first hour past the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I see this one as, get an inch, be happy, get lucky and get more than an inch, be very happy. I agree 100% John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like MRX extended its WWAs until Noon instead of 7am, unless I am just imagining things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 They did reb, they said it was due to likely icy roads because of flash freezing. With west flow, there's not a lake connection. I look for non-accumulating snow showers tomorrow as the moisture is squeezed out. Probably 2 inches max outside of the Smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Last hours HHHR was encouraging for areas west of here toward middle TN for 1-2, locally three...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hard to believe the temps are going to crash as far as predicted as warm as it is this afternoon. I will be interested to see how cold it gets tomorrow night, and compare Robert's thoughts versus MRX...about 10-12 degrees difference on their predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 303 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY... ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MURRAY KY. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID STATE AND OUR EASTERN PLATEAU BY 8PM OR SO. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. NO LONGER EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL FOR MIDDLE TN. SOME AREAS MIGHT RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR SO. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT THE SFC LOW TRACKED TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHUTTING DOWN MUCH MORE RAPIDLY. NO SNOW AS OF YET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN WESTERN TN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. WILL REDUCE THE SNOW GIRDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCLUDE CHANCE AND LIKELY LEVELS BUT NO LONGER CATEGORICAL. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NARROW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. AS FOR THE COLD TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING SINGLE DIGIT LOW OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE UPWARD MOVEMENT IN TEMPS ON MONDAY. FACTORING IN THE WINDS AND WINDCHILL FACTORS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW. THE AIRMASS THAT IS BUILDING IN IS PRODUCING -50 TO -60 WINDCHILLS CURRENTLY IN NORTH DAKOTA. IT WONT BE THAT BRUTALLY COLD HERE. HOWEVER...EXPECTED WINDCHILLS AS LOW AS 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW LATE TONIGHT HAS PROMPTED A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR OUR NW COUNTIES AND SOME NC COUNTIES OF MIDDLE TN. THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL RUN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON ON MONDAY. OTW...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM ON TUESDAY. FURTHERMORE...A REGULAR WIND ADVISORY FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE EXT FCST...CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD MILDER AND WET. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX TO OCCUR DURING THE ONSET WED NT AND INTO THU MORNING. OTW...WILL INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SEQUENCE OF MOISTURE SURGES FROM THE GULF WORK NORTHEASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Typical weather here in Mid Tn,nothing ever goes right in the winter time.But what's even more trouble some is when the models can't even get it right two days or even one before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I guess the HHHR was, and still is.....on crack after hearing the Nashville discussion. 19z HHHR accumulation map Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I won't be surprised to see MRX also cancel the WWA. If they keep it, it will probably be due to ice freezing on roads from the rain. If there's not good snow cover, temps will probably also be a bit warmer than they otherwise would have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 ...and this is why I never get excited about snow for north AL unless there is an ULL...been burned too many times... Sent from my KFTT using Tapatalk HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 We really need a fairly strong -NAO, and its been like pulling teeth to get a shakeup of ANY kind in the Atlantic. Maybe as we get deeper into January we can crack that nut. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 We really need a fairly strong -NAO, and its been like pulling teeth to get a shakeup of ANY kind in the Atlantic. Maybe as we get deeper into January we can crack that nut. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Still believe you guys could at least get 2" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not seeing it Jax, but I guess anything is possible. Our temps are around 45, and we won't drop much till the front passes and unfortunately the cold doesn't look to be crashing into the precip for areas west if here as had been anticipated. I hate that you guys are going to get missed.......AGAIN! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It's 10 degrees colder in Farragut than it is at the airport. The huge drop in temps is much later tonight, right? Midnightish? That will be fun to watch even if we only get a few snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 58 in maryville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 37 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.