tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It looks no worse for parts of east TN IMO, but the areas that were suppose to get 4-5 from yesterday have been almost cut out completely today. I am hoping for a surprise or two...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 David Aldrich via Facebook: Here's ANOTHER SPECIAL Knoxville - East Tennessee edition of the "Behind the Weather Center Curtain"We still have a touch of RAIN changing to a BURST OF SNOW this Sunday into Monday.Here's a review of the models since late last night.7 PM (0 z) GFS (Global Forecast System) model2.85 to 4.3 inches of snow7 PM (0 z) NAM (North American Mesoscale) model1.55 to 2.0 inches of snowNow for the more recent runs...7 AM ( 12 z) NAM (North American Mesoscale) model is now slowing down from yesterday0.20" of rain, 9 PM to 12 AM Mondayfollowed by2.2 to 2.80 inches of snow, 1 AM Monday to 4 AM Mondayending as flurries, 5 AM Monday to 11 AM Monday7 AM GFS (Global Forecast System) modelDrizzle / Virga 4 AM to 10 AM Sunday0.05" of rain, 9 PM to 11 PM Sundayfollowed by1.3 to 2.0 inches of snow, 12 AM Monday to 7 AM Mondayending as flurries, 8 AM to 11 AM MondayThe 7 AM ( 12 z) ECMWF (Euro) also brings in around 3 inches plus of snow late Sunday night into very early Monday morning.Here's my thinking...Based on these model runs alone, we are moving closer to 2 to 3 inches of snow for Knoxville and the Valley.However, the real test will be tonight's 7 PM ( 0 z) and Sunday morning's 7 AM ( 12 z) model runs for the picture to be more clear. I will leave the 3 to 5 inches of snow I have on the board alone, but be ready to peel itdown a few inches Sunday morning, if needed. -----DavidP.S. Models tend to bounce up and down before an event.BTW... This is already out as of this posting.For Fentress & Cumberland Counties... NWS - Nashville"WINTER STORM WATCHFOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND PLATEAU...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 6 PM...AND THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES COULD OCCUR FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROM JAMESTOWN TO MONTEREY." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If the band is that thin and fast, and there's no NW flow, look for a heavy dusting to 1/2 inch at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Just stacked a rick and a half of wood, bracing for my arctic dusting which will go well the existing dusting that is still hanging around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 WSW in S.Central Ky being taken to WWA. They are downgrading snowfall totals for there already. I expect WWA for 1-2 inches for East Tennessee, probably still a WSW above 2500 feet in NW flow areas. More rain is now predicted and the start time for the snow was pushed back from afternoon til midnight for them. So look for our start time to probably be moved to midnight or later. I guess the push of cold isn't quite as fast as it was being modeled 24-48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 More rain could mean more of a black ice concern than a snowy road concern for Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.WWUS44 KMRX 042014WSWMRXURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN314 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTEDBEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT....A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BEGINNING SUNDAYEVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OFSOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE TOHEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BITTERLY COLD AIRCOMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOWWIND CHILLS...BEGINNING ON MONDAY.TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-VAZ002-050900-/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0002.140106T0300Z-140107T0000Z/JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WISE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...COKER CREEK...WISE...NORTON314 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING.* EVENT...BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WITH UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS. COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. THE LOW WIND CHILLS CAN RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR EVEN DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVINGCONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THELATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 As I figured, MRX with the WSW for the mountains and holding off on issuing anything for anyone else until the last possible minute. Not sure why they choose that path so often, that's why you end up with people hiking and needing rescued like the guys the other day. No one pays any attention to special weather statements because the news doesn't really report them or scroll them on the television screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For Knox, similar for Blount, from MRX Sunday Night: Breezy...colder. Rain until early morning. Snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Lows 15 to 18. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 18z NAM Hi-Res 24 hour snowfall Edit: And a few hours later after the lingering snow showers at hour 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Sunday NightRain and snow, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 9. Wind chill values between -5 and 5. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. MondayA chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance for flurries. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 9. Wind chill values between -8 and -15. Blustery, with a west wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around -5. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. I'll hope this is the case, but I think it's probably the best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I need you guys to tell me what's going on. Earlier this afternoon, the NWS, on the page I can put in my zip code, had accumulations of around one half inch for me in West Knoxville, the no snow side of Knox County. Now it has 1-3 inches. I assume something changed for the better or did the Morristown weather station just finally bite the bullet and be less conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzbyrd Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 MRX never stops being conservative....ever. There could be 12" of snow on the ground and they will be saying that it won't snow. That being said, the TN valley always gets screwed when it comes to snow. I often tell my hubby that the county where we live has a bubble over it because everywhere else gets more snow than we do. For some reason, in the last 13+ years, we only get a couple inches at a time. No major anything except extremes in temperature. The plateau robs the moisture I think....or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 0z NAM Hi-Res 24 hour snowfall That's showing 2 inches for most of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Here's Earl's 0z NAM snow map, using his "Kuchera" snow algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Stovepipe, we're right on the edge close to that one inch line? I'm on the south side of Lovell Rd (near Kingston Pike), so I'm not positive on that map how close to the edge I am. Suzbyrd, I agree. I love to read the forecast discussion, even though my knowledge is so limited, and Nashville and Memphis have really good ones, and then nothing for us. I guess the valley around Knox Co must be harder to forecast or they really are just super conservative. Their accumulation amount really did go up from earlier this afternoon, so that made me happy anyway. I just wish they'd write why/how they come to their conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Tabbycat, it may end up similar to last Thursday where some spots get a couple of inches and down the road a few miles only a dusting. As John says "feast or famine". All I can say from a modeling stand point is that, despite the downward shift in snow totals since yesterday, east TN still looks to be in better shape now than we did for the Thursday storm. For that one, I had a dusting at my house in the Bluegrass area but Kingston Pike at West Town had an inch plus on the road at one point. There was significant variation across the county with snow and it might be a similar situation come Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzbyrd Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Tabby...I agree, other surrounding offices (GSP, BNA) always give pretty detailed forecasts while MRX never does. Maybe MRX is not a prime spot to be employed so we get a low-level hire or someone not as experienced? Frustrating for sure when people want to read the details of their reasoning. I often go to GSP for better understanding of why weather is happening. I'm waiting for the big bomb to drop on us one day. I was in RDU in 2000 and that was a total blast with all the snow. Also, TNWeathernut, Stovepipe, 1122, 1985, Carver give pretty good analyses so I read whatever they write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Of course MRX is the last to issue any advisories as we are circled by products all around us. Same old song and dance. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yes, that's why I started reading here a few winters ago. The analysis is so much better, even if I don't understand a lot of it. But at least I have an idea a few days ahead of time of what might happen. Y'all are my weather guys. Stovepipe, I got a dusting only, too. It was pretty, though. I just want enough to cover the grass. Or what I really want is the winter of 1996 again where we had awesome snows about three Thursdays in a row. Remember the one around eight to ten inches that stayed a week? I slipped and broke my arm the following Monday night and Kingston Pike was still solid slick snow all the way to the campus area when we went to the ER. And on my trip on Wed. to an ortho, it was still on the ground. To me, that's the last really good winter we had with a snow that stayed more than a day. I'll go back to just reading for now, but I hope one of you has a nice surprise map for me tomorrow, even if it is coming from the west and not the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The chance for snow showers on Monday just went from 30% to 50%. Even a good snow shower can help when it's already cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Keep seeing signs of this wanting to pop a secondary and it's about 4mb stronger than what the models are showing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yes, that's why I started reading here a few winters ago. The analysis is so much better, even if I don't understand a lot of it. But at least I have an idea a few days ahead of time of what might happen. Y'all are my weather guys. Stovepipe, I got a dusting only, too. It was pretty, though. I just want enough to cover the grass. Or what I really want is the winter of 1996 again where we had awesome snows about three Thursdays in a row. Remember the one around eight to ten inches that stayed a week? I slipped and broke my arm the following Monday night and Kingston Pike was still solid slick snow all the way to the campus area when we went to the ER. And on my trip on Wed. to an ortho, it was still on the ground. To me, that's the last really good winter we had with a snow that stayed more than a day. I'll go back to just reading for now, but I hope one of you has a nice surprise map for me tomorrow, even if it is coming from the west and not the south. You should post more often! Don't feel shy or embarrassed to post anything that's on your mind and don't feel like any question is a stupid one. We are all here to learn as well and asking questions is good. Looks like you will get a little dose of 1996 as this will be the coldest it's been since then. We just might be lacking in the snow department. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Ah, thank you, 1234. I'm just so far away from understanding how you guys read those maps that I'm hopeless. I just don't have a brain for it and only understand accounting/business. I'm not even sure I understand all of that anymore, lol. But I'll be the biggest snow cheerleader here! I just don't want to get off topic and get in trouble. If I started asking questions, I'd be the poor old Brick pest of the TN Valley Forum (I like Brick, so I write that fondly). I'm in stay up late mode so I can sleep late tomorrow. I know I'll be up all night tomorrow night. However much snow we get, I'll be up watching it. I'll be reading the forecast discussion until you guys let me know tomorrow if it's a good day or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 And just like that, Morristown drops Monday back to 30% again. I still live in the same place I did a few hours ago, so I guess they still aren't settled on their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 To be honest Tabby. just read the zone forecast. Those are the ones actually written by the mets at MRX. The point forecast are just filled in by the computer and can vary pretty widely 1 mile away at the same elevation. I expect the arctic front to roll through, there to be a band of moderate to heavy snow, then snow showers in it's wake. The atmosphere will squeeze all available moisture out in the form of flakes. That's why I expect light snow and snow showers all day Monday. Monday night even rogue clouds will produce light snow and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 OHX made a good point with their morning package, they mentioned the models waffling but said this is where "forecaster experience" takes over. Which is why they went ahead and issued products for their CWA, they've apparently seen this set up several times. The models are just that, a guide at best. Nothing ever really plays out exactly like they say. I greatly overperformed the models in the upslope the other night. It's all a matter of angle. If the upslope can get going at all, the bands will stream into the valley. Hope you get under one and you get a real treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Storm looks like in 6hrs per rap to be even further W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 John, is the "zone forecast" and the "zone discussion" the same thing? The zone discussion is what I've been reading. If it was going to be a little less cold Monday, I'd head over toward Crossville/Cookeville just to see your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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