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January 5th-6th Potential Winter Event


ChescoWx

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Cold air is definitely hanging tough this morning. I have +2 in my backyard. The PWS two blocks from me that's linked to Wunderground is +1. Allentown is +4. While some moisture seems to be riding up I-95, the skies are crystal clear up here, which was something I didn't expect. I thought we'd be overcast, or at least partly cloudy by now.

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I don't know how accurate this is, except that the temperature for Tamaqua appears to be close, but this image clearly illustrates the warmer ridge tops and colder valleys this morning. I figured I'd post it since there was quite a bit of talk about it last night, both here and in the Central PA thread.

 

post-317-0-60859100-1388921999_thumb.jpg

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Wxsim has it to 21 by 9am and 32 by noon - actually starts precip as a mix of IP/Snow quickly to ZR but not much precip till temps get above freezing - but then has it dropping again after 4pm with ZR till 11pm (don't believe that should happen as temps should continue to slowly rise)

I see radar starting to blossom across Southern Chester County - will be interesting to see if it is reaching the ground

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I love the positive thinking about freezing precip tomorrow. However, cold air at the surface due to radiational cooling is very shallow and temps can warm ridiculously fast in the am. Never under estimate WAA

 

 

Indeed, one of the weirdest airmasses i've seen.

 

Mount Pocono ...3 miles down is 12.  While i'm 26.4 !     more than double their temp.

 

Mount Pocono elevation : 1500 feet

Here : 2100 feet.

 

clear and sunny here as well

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Looking at the current setup, including a forecast of a major LES event for Buffalo NY tomorrow made me think of January 28th, 1977, when we had a dramatic arctic frontal passage in this area in the early evening. Probably the most dramatic winter frontal passage I can remember. You could hear the trees roaring as it approached, and it snowed hard for maybe 30 minutes, about an inch of accumulation, but the wind stayed up and the bottom fell out of the temperatures. Check out the hourly stats at KPHL here: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPHL/1977/1/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA particularly from 6 pm on. I think the front came through around 6:45 pm. Not expecting that tomorrow, but the expected temperature drop made me think of this one.

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