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1/5/14 thru 1/6/14 event


Mikehobbyst

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my temp dropped from 31.4 to 31.0 in the last half hour...northerly wind now...

most areas away from the immediate cost will have at least a couple of inches or more left on the ground when the flash freeze hits later tomorrow especially since this warmup is going to be brief  will end up being a black ice event tomorrow night and tuesday will be alot of salting of roads going on tomorrow in preparation - next chance of snow thursday night into friday - expect the same thing to happen then with the arctic air slower to leave then forecasted....

 

still a solid covering of ice and snow on the seaside boarwalk as of 1 pm

 

http://exit82.com/beach-cam/

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Upton is not that confident of a flash freeze tomorrow east of NYC. They say precip ends by mid morning but our temps are forecasted not too drop all that fast at least here In western Nassau.. we're still above frefreezing at 5pm..

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The snow melt will attribute to the flash freeze for some places as the pavement and surfaces will likely be wet as freezing temperatures move in. We rarely see flash freezes though as the temperature drops are more gradual and the moisture dries out but there will likely be icy patches or black ice just because of the snow melt liquid freezing up. 

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You're not going to loose several inches of snow with 0.25" of rain and a brief 24 hour warmup.

I disagree from experience the se wind with high Dews is the ultimate snow eater. Granted I'm in wantagh not long beach now but still less then a mile from the warm bay. Ill post pics tomorrow before/after

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I disagree from experience the se wind with high Dews is the ultimate snow eater. Granted I'm in wantagh not long beach now but still less then a mile from the warm bay. Ill post pics tomorrow before/after

 

I already lost some snow here the last few hours that was left on the pavement with a 35 degree temp. But whatever

is left in piles or on the grass later tomorrow will be like cement with the melt puddles around them freezing solid.

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The snow melt will attribute to the flash freeze for some places as the pavement and surfaces will likely be wet as freezing temperatures move in. We rarely see flash freezes though as the temperature drops are more gradual and the moisture dries out but there will likely be icy patches or black ice just because of the snow melt liquid freezing up. 

not only that but chances of water main breaks, burst pipes and pot holes will increase later this week because of these rapid thaw/superfreeze/thaw cycles and the old infrastructure around these parts 

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not only that but chances of water main breaks, burst pipes and pot holes will increase later this week because of these rapid thaw/superfreeze/thaw cycles and the old infrastructure around these parts 

 

A local business by me was closed today after the pipes burst yesterday. The parkway on and off ramps are especially bad

for potholes around here.

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not only that but chances of water main breaks, burst pipes and pot holes will increase later this week because of these rapid thaw/superfreeze/thaw cycles and the old infrastructure around these parts 

 

Yeah going from near zero to low 50s and back to single digits is never a good thing. I wouldn't be surprised to see numerous reports of pipes bursting and water main breaks. I agree about the pot holes too, they'll be on the increase as well. 

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Just heard that a water pipe in the ceiling of the high school in my town burst this afternoon

I got a brief laugh reading that. In all seriousness, that sucks. -from a '93 P.L.H.S. graduate

 

The latest report is four busted water mains today in Sussex, NJ

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I disagree from experience the se wind with high Dews is the ultimate snow eater. Granted I'm in wantagh not long beach now but still less then a mile from the warm bay. Ill post pics tomorrow before/after

 

Respectfully disagree. Not only that but temps are under preforming today. Wouldn't surprise me if temps turn out colder tomorrow in regards to warmth. Great South Bay has water temps in the low to mid 30's (partially ice covered too), it's shallow water cools much faster than the ocean that will help keep temps lower here. Very little rain. Temps peak at 10am tomorrow. Less than 24 hours of the warmup to go and barely any of my snow pack has melted. Plus the freezing rain helped a bit this morning. This isn't a 36+ hour warm up, then maybe I'd agree with you on high dews eating all the snow away. My 9" of snow still left isn't going anywhere in 24 hours, that would be a historic melt. 

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Respectfully disagree. Not only that but temps are under preforming today. Wouldn't surprise me if temps turn out colder tomorrow in regards to warmth. Great South Bay has water temps in the low to mid 30's (partially ice covered too), it's shallow water cools much faster than the ocean that will help keep temps lower here. Very little rain. Temps peak at 10am tomorrow. Less than 24 hours of the warmup to go and barely any of my snow pack has melted. Plus the freezing rain helped a bit this morning. This isn't a 36+ hour warm up, then maybe I'd agree with you on high dews eating all the snow away. My 9" of snow still left isn't going anywhere in 24 hours, that would be a historic melt. 

 

You are correct.  I'd be amazed if more than 33% of the frozen snowpack is lost today into tomorrow - which is not to say that the snow depth might not shrink by more than 33%, but that will largely be due to compaction, as the ZR and rain will be largely absorbed by the snowpack, collapsing the low bulk density structure of the original snowpack.  18-24 hours above freezing and 0.25-0.50" of rain at this time of year (low sun angle still) will not eliminate most or even half of a 7-10" snowpack (as very little melted/sublimated since Friday given the very cold temps).  Was very similar on 12/14, as we had 12-24 hrs above freezing and with maybe 0.5" of rain falling into 5-6" of snowpack  and most of the snowpack survived and froze solid and lasted most of the next week until the record warmth.

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Respectfully disagree. Not only that but temps are under preforming today. Wouldn't surprise me if temps turn out colder tomorrow in regards to warmth. Great South Bay has water temps in the low to mid 30's (partially ice covered too), it's shallow water cools much faster than the ocean that will help keep temps lower here. Very little rain. Temps peak at 10am tomorrow. Less than 24 hours of the warmup to go and barely any of my snow pack has melted. Plus the freezing rain helped a bit this morning. This isn't a 36+ hour warm up, then maybe I'd agree with you on high dews eating all the snow away. My 9" of snow still left isn't going anywhere in 24 hours, that would be a historic melt. 

Agreed - in addition radar is not impressive at all 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

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