Mikehobbyst Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like NAM wants a ZR to very cold rain event for NYC / LI. Most other models show a cold rain with mid to upper 30's. Could we trend this colder to a moderate ZR event to seal in this snow until Spring ? Discuss... Can we escape the Jan thaw this month or any torches ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Lol you really care about this now when there is a blizzard outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't know if I saw the right Euro ..but 0z shows snow accumulation for the area. Can anyonr confirmed this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't know if I saw the right Euro ..but 0z shows snow accumulation for the area. Can anyonr confirmed this ? Euro, GFS and ggem all have snow but for day 7. Not this threat. Ggem is almost a moderate hit. GFS and euro are light snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We really don't torch after this. Low 40s Sunday 30s with rain at night. Provided amounts are low we may not lose much snowpack before the arctic blast hits us Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We really don't torch after this. Low 40s Sunday 30s with rain at night. Provided amounts are low we may not lose much snowpack before the arctic blast hits us Monday night some models including the GFS are showing a chngeover to snow by monday afternoon for a few hours - have to watch that http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014010306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 According to Steve D, there may be another coastal storm next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I see a light rain rapidly changing to light snow situation Monday with flash freeze.....very dangerous driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Upton is calling for .50-1.00 of rain sun night. Guess the snow cover will be gone by mon morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Upton is calling for .50-1.00 of rain sun night. Guess the snow cover will be gone by mon morning. Euro has about .6 inches of precip. Sunday temps in the early afternoon are actually around freezing but then rise into the overnight before maxing out around 50 for a very short while. Then they drop very quickly well new freezing. I think we'll be able to preserve some snow. It's technically a 24 hour warmup, a little less actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 According to Steve D, there may be another coastal storm next Friday. He gets me every time. Just when I start to trust him again, he basically wishcasts and I fall for it.. last storm he was assuring us that the HV valley would get into the heavy snow. never happened, and most people saw it unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Nam has a small wave good for 1-2" of snow for coastal sections, NYC, e nj right after frontal passage Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 For NYC/coastal sections, there will be a period of rain Sunday PM to Sunday night with areas of locally dense fog at times. This fog will really eat at the snow...and we may not have much of it left except before the frontal passage on Monday. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see snow showers or squalls with the passage of the arctic front. Does anybody here know the last time NYC failed to reach 10 degrees during the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 For NYC/coastal sections, there will be a period of rain Sunday PM to Sunday night with areas of locally dense fog at times. This fog will really eat at the snow...and we may not have much of it left except before the frontal passage on Monday. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see snow showers or squalls with the passage of the arctic front. Does anybody here know the last time NYC failed to reach 10 degrees during the day? 18z 4km NAM has NYC in low to mid 30s sunday until 4pm where it rises to high 40s for 1-2 hours (mid 40's more likely IMO), hope fully the snowpack will act like a sponge, then temps quickly drop into 30s, It will be close, and all the melted snow and rain will result in a flash freeze, and the models may be underestimating cold air (youve heard this, I know), we may see surface struggle to warm leading to more ZR than expected btw I have 9" of snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 For NYC/coastal sections, there will be a period of rain Sunday PM to Sunday night with areas of locally dense fog at times. This fog will really eat at the snow...and we may not have much of it left except before the frontal passage on Monday. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see snow showers or squalls with the passage of the arctic front. Does anybody here know the last time NYC failed to reach 10 degrees during the day? Jan 19, 1994 high of 10. Not sure last high below 10. Unc would have that info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Jan 19, 1994 high of 10. Not sure last high below 10. Unc would have that info. Im guessing 1/21/85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18z 4km NAM has NYC in low to mid 30s sunday until 4pm where it rises to high 40s for 1-2 hours (mid 40's more likely IMO), hope fully the snowpack will act like a sponge, then temps quickly drop into 30s, It will be close, and all the melted snow and rain will result in a flash freeze, and the models may be underestimating cold air (youve heard this, I know), we may see surface struggle to warm leading to more ZR than expected btw I have 9" of snow on the ground The snow pack should really consolidate and settle over the next day or two. This fluffy powder is weak towards rain and warmth. Once it consolidates it will be more like 4-5" pack and with it being more consolidated, may be able to withstand the rain and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Jan 19, 1994 high of 10. Not sure last high below 10. Unc would have that info. i'm old enough to remember a day in 1981/82? where the high temp for the day was 0 here in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Jan 19, 1994 high of 10. Not sure last high below 10. Unc would have that info. 1985 with nine as the max holds the recent record...1943 and 1934 had a max of eight...Dec. 1917 has the record with two... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42206-record-breaking-cold-january-3-4-7-8-discussion-observations/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Nam has a small wave good for 1-2" of snow for coastal sections, NYC, e nj right after frontal passage Monday.... Arctic front with squall line....quick inch or so very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yuck. Water flowing over frozen roads for the morning commute then fresh ice coated roads for the ride home. Sounds like a blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 .Mr. G just said that monday's storm will feature rain to snow for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 .Mr. G just said that monday's storm will feature rain to snow for the NYC area. LOL I have no idea how the heck that guy is still in the business. I got interested in Metrl over 30 years ago & the dude was over @ CBS then I believe. I knew then he didnt know much & I still know it now . Yes there is a tad of truth in the RN>SN scenario but it aint much so we wiat for s mall wave that might give us an inch or 2 b4 the shot @ something next weekend ( 2 early obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like a strong squall with the arctic frontal passage could drop a quick or two according to gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NAM shows a weak low SE of Montauk at hr 57 .. 850's are east of our area but surface still warm, still some precip around. Lets see if this can develop more favorably to rewhiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Freezing rain advisories are up from mount holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Freezing rain advisories are up from mount holly. Upton doesn't agree. Even for their far n&w zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 18z 4km NAM has NYC in low to mid 30s sunday until 4pm where it rises to high 40s for 1-2 hours (mid 40's more likely IMO), hope fully the snowpack will act like a sponge, then temps quickly drop into 30s, It will be close, and all the melted snow and rain will result in a flash freeze, and the models may be underestimating cold air (youve heard this, I know), we may see surface struggle to warm leading to more ZR than expected btw I have 9" of snow on the ground I fully expect to still have a decent snowpack after the warm-up and rain. We received about 0.6-0.7" of liquid equivalent as snow on the ground in my area and very little of that has sublimated/melted. This amount of snowpack should be able to absorb most of the expected 0.5" of rain and withstand 24-30 hours above freezing without losing more than 25-50% of the snow. If anyone recalls the 12/14 snow to ZR to rain situation, we got about 0.5" snow as LE, then maybe 0.2" ZR as LE and then maybe 0.7" of plain rain and then the temps were above freezing for maybe 24 hours - and our snowpack depth went from maybe 5" to 2-3", but the LE hadn't decreased that much - it was mostly compaction, as the snowpack absorbed the rain. It then got cold and the whole mess froze and it lasted about a week until those outrageously warm temps the next weekend. As per the link, below, "Air temperature is still the most important factor in melting snow. Rain will usually not add much heat to the process. At 40 degrees, one inch of rain will only produce a tenth of an inch of added water from snow melt. However, rainfall is often accompanied by windy and humid conditions which can greatly accelerate snow melt. At the same time, frozen ground will result in more of the available water running off directly to streams." http://www.crh.noaa....N_Snow_Melt.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Freezing rain adv now up for here till 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Upton doesn't agree. Even for their far n&w zones Valley locations may hold onto the cold. My temp has spiked to 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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