Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18Z GFS 9-12" of snow for the Northern half of NJ and Northern NYC. 6-10" of snow for South Central NJ to LI. Is it wetter than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Northwest NJ, seems like less, no? I would think they would make up for slightly less QPF with the higher ratios. And all of NJ is in the 0.5-0.75" with Monmouth and Ocean counties getting 0.75"+. It is slightly wetter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Is it wetter than 12z? Really no change .65-.7" in the city so 15:1 would be 9-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Is it wetter than 12z? For me it is! Hoping Monmouth can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 eastern nj and long island close to .75 and costal monmouth and ocean over .75+ That's where you could see the 12-14" jackpots, around parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties and perhaps parts of LI. That inverted trough is what we'll have to pay close attention to. Someone mentioned Steve D. talking about deformation bands in NJ tomorrow morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18Z GFS 9-12" of snow for the Northern half of NJ and Northern NYC. 6-10" of snow for South Central NJ to LI. I assume this is from looking at some auto generated snow map? Otherwise we are not looking at the same 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I assume this is from looking at some auto generated snow map? Otherwise we are not looking at the same 18z GFS. It's from Instant Weather Maps. It's accounting for the ratios and the GFS is a bit too warm, so it should be higher for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 damn I miss the heaviest snow to my south ( in SW Suffolk county btw ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z gfs seems to be lining up more with the current 500 mb depiction than the nam. I would side with the overall outcome of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 damn I miss the heaviest snow to my south ( in SW Suffolk county btw ) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z gfs seems to be lining up more with the current 500 mb depiction than the nam. I would side with the overall outcome of the gfs. where do you think the heaviest totals would be located as far as coastal locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 damn I miss the heaviest snow to my south ( in SW Suffolk county btw ) 0.75" line is literally on south shore. We're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ? It was more of a poking fun at banter before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z HRRR hrrr_current_ne.gif That is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0.75" line is literally on south shore. We're fine. Models are horrible at predicting inverted trough features. I'd say most of Long Island, maybe even NYC and coastal NJ are in the game for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 where do you think the heaviest totals would be located as far as coastal locations? Heaviest snows will depend on where the heaviest bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z takes the next system up near Rochester instead of towards Cherry Hill NJ as on the 12z. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z HRRR hrrr_current_ne.gif Wow, looks similar to Feb 2006! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z takes the next system up near Rochester instead of towards Cherry Hill NJ as on the 12z. Ouch Lets take one storm at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF plume for EWR. Mean is 8.6" but many have 9-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF plume for EWR. Mean is 8.6" but many have 9-12". Untitled.png I'm going with a general 6-10 for the NYC metro. Some places can see in excess of a foot with banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z HRRR hrrr_current_ne.gif Thats pretty nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lol. My feeling that it will be east of rte. 112. okay thanks buddy and enjoy the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 okay thanks buddy and enjoy the storm I will. I'll be up all night with the rest of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 North of Jericho Turnpike and East of Huntington will be the hot spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Monmouth looking even better this run with the inverted trough. Could be some local 8-12" action in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm going with a general 6-10 for the NYC metro. Some places can see in excess of a foot with banding. That's what I would go with too and have been thinking for the past couple of days. Wherever that inverted trough sets up could see localized amounts of 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That's what I would go with too and have been thinking for the past couple of days. Wherever that inverted trough sets up could see localized amounts of 10-12". Central Jersey has found a way with the two previous December storms to exceed snowfall forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If that inverted trough ends up further north NYC is in the game for up to a foot huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That's what I would go with too and have been thinking for the past couple of days. Wherever that inverted trough sets up could see localized amounts of 10-12". Those troughs are so difficult to pinpoint, but yes if a location is under that band a foot + is possible based on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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