donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 For those who are also keeping track of the upcoming cold during and just after the snowstorm, the following are the lowest temperatures forecast for the 1/3-4 period by the 12z GFS and its MOS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looking at the Accuweather radar and its exploding to the west, southwest and its heading this way. It's probably light but we might get an early blitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Had very fine needles in freehold this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Had very fine needles in freehold this morning. Sounds like you started off with a 12:1 snowfall ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sounds like you started off with a 12:1 snowfall ratio. It was barely noticeable on my windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Don, what is the difference between 12z GFS and 12zMOS and which is more believable for Long Island? Thanks! For those who are also keeping track of the upcoming cold during and just after the snowstorm, the following are the lowest temperatures forecast for the 1/3-4 period by the 12z GFS and its MOS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'll be pretty satisfied with 3-4" by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 UKMET (probably about 0.40-0.50" QPF for KNYC): And GGEM (probably about 0.60-0.70" QPF for KNYC): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'll be pretty satisfied with 3-4" by midnight. 15Z HRRR looks better. Not sure how they calculate snowfall though. Always seems high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 euro looks slightly deeper/sharper with the trof at 12 hours. but that's splitting hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 16z rap in line with other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 through 18 hours it's wetter than 0z. the 6 hour .25" contour covers most of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Don, what is the difference between 12z GFS and 12zMOS and which is more believable for Long Island? Thanks! I'm not sure why the GFS is so warm for ISP. With a fresh snow cover, I suspect the temperature will probably be close to 5° +/- a few degrees for the lowest figure. There won't be any onshore winds of a sufficient magnitude to keep things as warm as the GFS suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro is pretty much the same. Perhaps a hair wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro is pretty much the same. Perhaps a hair wetter. the .5" contour expanded slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the .5" contour expanded slightly Sorry I'm off my mobile. Def looks a bit wetter. Should be a fun time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sorry I'm off my mobile. Def looks a bit wetter. Should be a fun time. Thanks a lot for the play-by-play as always. I'm starting to think some places on Long Island and maybe even coastal NJ may approach a foot given the trends today-more development closer to the coast and the banding which models are keying in on for tomorrow morning. There might be a kind of "shadow" north of here into CT if the heavier banding doesn't make it there, but still should be some impressive totals and conditions across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I nominate ALLSNOW as the only one who should do winter storm model analysis. I hope you all agree. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GEM LAM-E is solidly 15mm qpf as snow for most of us. Lock it in guys lol. Map isn't mine to post, sorry in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks guys. I'm just good with doing surface pbp. We need guys like earthlight and forky etc to look at h5 and look for trends. I had a real good time tracking this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 A little wetter for monmouth, 0.7-0.8 makes it into east/central monmouth county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Don, what is the difference between 12z GFS and 12zMOS and which is more believable for Long Island? Thanks! I think the column with GFS temps. is ripped straight from model text output whereas the MOS massages those numbers using climo and known microscale nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 For those who are also keeping track of the upcoming cold during and just after the snowstorm, the following are the lowest temperatures forecast for the 1/3-4 period by the 12z GFS and its MOS: Comparing Islip and NYC GFS (Islip 12 degrees warmer than NYC) and MOS(NYC 8 degrees warmer than Islip), I would think with CAA, temperature comparisons should be much more uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 For those who are also keeping track of the upcoming cold during and just after the snowstorm, the following are the lowest temperatures forecast for the 1/3-4 period by the 12z GFS and its MOS: That MOS is actually 10 degrees warmer for NYC than the actual GFS. This is why Upton and the news outlets has been forecasting 9 degrees for the low for NYC for 3 straight days. Which number do you think is more accurate for NYC? If the -1 pans out, then there should be Wind Chill Advisories for NYC. When was the last time NYC had a Wind Chill Advisory. It seems like it's been at least a decade or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks guys. I'm just good with doing surface pbp. We need guys like earthlight and forky etc to look at h5 and look for trends. I had a real good time tracking this one. Are you able to get soundings from KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro like the rest of the models keeps the idv trough over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The .9" contour line touches Monmouth County on the 12Z EURO. Looks a bit wetter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think the column with GFS temps. is ripped straight from model text output whereas the MOS massages those numbers using climo and known microscale nuances. FOK can do really well if the winds go calm for a few hours before sunrise. WESTHAMPTON BEACH KFOK GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/02/2014 1200 UTC DT /JAN 2/JAN 3 /JAN 4 /JAN 5 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 15 18 -6 31 24 TMP 33 32 33 35 35 33 26 15 15 16 9 3 -1 -3 0 23 29 28 26 29 28 DPT 27 26 24 25 24 21 14 8 5 1 -3 -9-10 -9 -5 6 10 14 16 20 22 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CL CL CL CL CL SC CL CL CL CL FW CL BK WDR 04 03 03 03 02 01 35 34 33 33 34 34 34 32 00 24 22 21 21 22 23 WSP 12 12 18 20 20 21 24 22 20 15 10 06 03 01 00 06 08 07 07 06 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That MOS is actually 10 degrees warmer for NYC than the actual GFS. This is why Upton and the news outlets has been forecasting 9 degrees for the low for NYC for 3 straight days. Which number do you think is more accurate for NYC? If the -1 pans out, then there should be Wind Chill Advisories for NYC. When was the last time NYC had a Wind Chill Advisory. It seems like it's been at least a decade or more. I believe a number closer to 4° or 5° is more likely than the 9° figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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