bluewave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Every one of these still showing something completely different http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/f21.gif It looks like convective feedback with the lead wave today is pulling the development tonight a little too far east. The members that blow up less convection off the MA Coast today have a further west development tonight with .75 getting back closer to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 This run is indeed a bit wetter than 06z, but it's not earth shattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z high res has some snow around 21-23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This run is indeed a bit wetter than 06z, but it's not earth shattering. It does rejoin the general model consensus for the greater NYC area. The 6z run was below the general consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Let the run play out, weenie. I'd be careful to be more respectful to the moderator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The new 09z SREF increased the mean snowfall to around 8 inches at Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The moderate snow never makes it north of Ocean County. Hour 27 everything pulling away. 0.50"+ line is southeast of NYC. The trough literally develops 3-6 hours too slow. Looks to be a bit nicer than last run which is good This run is indeed a bit wetter than 06z, but it's not earth shattering. Inv trof signal is still there at 21 hours. Way different, and better, than the 06z run. So, which is it? Better or worse than 6Z? Drier or wetter? We really need to nominate/select one qualified person (like earthlight) to do the play by play on these model threads - I often just wait until 10 minutes after I know the run is done before reading the thread, because reading it live is frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice....I'm ready for my half foot nice, fluffy snow in frigid air. True winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM QPF totals. In line with much of the rest of guidance 0.40 - 0.60 generally west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So, which is it? Better or worse than 6Z? Drier or wetter? We really need to nominate/select one qualified person to do the play by play on these model threads - I often just wait until 10 minutes after I know the run is done before reading the thread, because reading it live is frustrating. Its improved from 06z by increasing its QPF to be much more in line with the rest of the guidance range. NAM at the lower end and the 00z ECM at the higher end of the range. GFS been the steadiest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The NAM is already too far east with the heaviest rain, so development later on should be further west with higher precip amounts here. The NAM is prone to feedback issues off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The southern stream is currently over Texas, the northern stream looks sharp and is over Missouri. This all looks west of where most of the modeling has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So, which is it? Better or worse than 6Z? Drier or wetter? We really need to nominate/select one qualified person (like earthlight) to do the play by play on these model threads - I often just wait until 10 minutes after I know the run is done before reading the thread, because reading it live is frustrating. It's somewhat wetter. Around 0.40"-0.45" in the greater NYC metro area and adjacent suburbs vs. about 0.1" less at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It improved from 06z, some of the differences are quite laughable with the Nam from run to run but it's QPF amounts look to be on track and near the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe you could try looking at the models yourself? It was clearly better than 06z, take the extra two seconds to read things more clearly. Very few people are truly qualified to be commenting on the model output live, as clearly demonstrated by the conflicting comments we always see on the pbp. Anyone can read the snow/qpf maps after they're out, but commenting live should be restricted to pros or really knowledgable amateurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Snow maps spitting out 4-8" area wide. That's based on 10:1. Thinking more like 15:1 or better. That would yield totals of 6 to 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The southern stream is currently over Texas, the northern stream looks sharp and is over Missouri. This all looks west of where most of the modeling has it. Exactly what I was saying before.....better than modeled, while others claiming exactly as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 With storm pretty much over 12z WSI RPM came in a little higher with snow totals. In my opinion looks to be a pretty good comprise with what we saw with last nights NAM, GFS and EURO runs. One big change was to bring significant snow down into DC and BWI which I'm not buying. (yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Based on the 4k NAM snows wrap up between 9 and 11AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Based on the 4k NAM snows wrap up between 9 and 11AM. What time does it roll into NE NJ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The coldest NYC gets now is around 10 degrees while the snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The high resolution NAM has just about .5" for NYC, NE NJ, etc. Some higher amounts on Long Island and the NJ Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 What time does it roll into NE NJ ? Expect light snow to begin between 8 and 10PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 One question, how long a duration of accumulating snow on western Long Island 8, 10, 12 or 14 hours? When does the real stuff begin and end? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Expect light snow to begin between 8 and 10PM. Looking at radars I think it will start earlier then that. Of course the heaviest will fall tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I love how there is a snowstorm in suffolk this AM- but in Nassau, it's barely snowing if at all.. I'm 15 miles away from home and as per radar, there is a nice band over western suffolk.. Can these damn bands extend west some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 With storm pretty much over 12z WSI RPM came in a little higher with snow totals. In my opinion looks to be a pretty good comprise with what we saw with last nights NAM, GFS and EURO runs. One big change was to bring significant snow down into DC and BWI which I'm not buying. (yet) The latest HRR suggests pretty heavy snows down the coast into the MA region of DE but not so much back that far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Be funny if DC ends their 2" snow drought on an event where they don't expect much if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Rgem is awesome. Upped totals from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Rgem is awesome. Upped totals from 6z mind posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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