dabiggiu Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:42 PM, rossi said: I know its a 12z forum but anything new with sunday system?Rain..its not going in the other direction..rain fog 40s melting snowEdit gfs is still rain but cold air moves in much earlier on Monday so warmup is muted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Last 3 runs of the sref have been pretty consistent, 0.66", 0.61" and 0.64"..Fits in well with the euro/uk/gfs for kblm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:42 PM, Allsnow said: Yes I'm very happy with that…..hopefully banding does not screw us march 09 style..lol thinking 4-8 for us…with perhaps 9-10 over the eastern part of the county Yeah I think Middlesex/Monmouth west of the GSP should see 4 - 8. More as you head east in this setup but you never know if some band sets up near Freehold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Gfs would be below 5 degrees from 0z tomorrow evening through Saturday morning bottoming out right at 0 even in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Time to now cast because these IV troughs are tricky. There is still room for improvement and it could set up stronger and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:51 PM, BrooklynSnow97 said: Time to now cast because these IV troughs are tricky. There is still room for improvement and it could set up stronger and further west. That's certainly true, the odds favor that then the opposite. It's going to be very interesting and exciting later today. Ratios will of course be a major player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:46 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Rain..its not going in the other direction..rain fog 40s melting snow Agreed outcome for us is the same, but 12z is further east with the slp than 0z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Very nice signal on the GFS for that band to take shape-and it makes sense with the intensity of the trough. Where that verifies could end up with over 10", maybe 12". I think the snow area will generally be a little further west also given the current obs and the models' still seeming to shift everything offshore too fast. Long Island could have 8-12" if the 0.75" or more liquid models are correct given 15:1 ratios on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know this might be a bit off topic, but, after this next system on sunday passes, am I nuts, or are we looking at flash freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:51 PM, BrooklynSnow97 said: Time to now cast because these IV troughs are tricky. There is still room for improvement and it could set up stronger and further west. Yes, just a 20-50miles to the west..and the amounts will be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:51 PM, BrooklynSnow97 said: Time to now cast because these IV troughs are tricky. There is still room for improvement and it could set up stronger and further west. sure could, or just as easily set up weaker and east or stronger and east.. we just dont know and will need to nowcast it.. hate relying on IV troughs though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:35 PM, Allsnow said: hr 30 snow is moving out.. this looks exactly like the 00z euro..the city is close to .75 and all of long island is over that Allsnow - excellent job on the pbp. FWIW, I much prefer your style of reporting the output (how much, where, and when) without a lot of conjecture on what the models "look like" which is always risky for anyone, even a pro, on a moment's notice, live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:40 PM, Allsnow said: snow maps are 6-8 for north jersey and 8+ from the city east..this is using 10-1 ratio Won't be 10:1, seems like 13:1-15:1 would be a conservative average. With 0.6 - 0.8 average, looks like 8-12" for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think for NYC proper, the 6-8 the nws has is a good, prudent call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 3:57 PM, shadowsintherain said: I know this might be a bit off topic, but, after this next system on sunday passes, am I nuts, or are we looking at flash freeze? A flash freeze is very possible. The latest GFS brings in severely cold temperatures in a very short period of time following the end of the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 4:19 PM, donsutherland1 said: A flash freeze is very possible. The latest GFS brings in severely cold temperatures in a very short period of time following the end of the precipitation. Wow gfs goes from 40s Monday morning to -5 Tuesday morning. 850s so much lower than tomorrow and that's without fresh snowcover. If correct we don't get out of the single digits all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 4:19 PM, donsutherland1 said: A flash freeze is very possible. The latest GFS brings in severely cold temperatures in a very short period of time following the end of the precipitation. That cold looks insane on the gfs, all CAA driven as well, looks like wind chills could be as low as -20 with actual temps 0 to 5 below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Watch as we closer to Sunday that there is less liquid and rain to snow as front passes. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 RGEM Totals 10 - 15Mm (0.40 - 0.60) NJ/NYC more into LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ya- this whole mess on sunday seems weird.. Your telling me we warm up and it rains and there is no snow w/ the arctic front? Something seems weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Arctic fronts don't always have precip with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NYC is exactly 14mm on the 12z rgem. Which is .55" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Snow coming iin from the ocean into Monmouth. Snow slowly approaching from the west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 4:47 PM, Mohawkvalley said: Down a degree to 29°, forecasted highs were in the mid 30s.. Yeah temps haven't budged since 8am or they've dropped slightly..sitting at 27 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 4:48 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Yeah temps haven't budged since 8am or they've dropped slightly..sitting at 27 now They are following the text output. 6 01/02 18Z 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Freezing drizzle in Lynbrook 26.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 4:34 PM, SACRUS said: Snow coming iin from the ocean into Monmouth. Snow slowly approaching from the west as well. 1-2 radar -1.gif I'm in Belmar we haven't had any snow yet here that I saw. But the winds are cranked up. Wouldn't be shocked to see a blizzard warning later for the coastal sections of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 flurries/snizzle in Red Bank. temp about 29. Expect coastal Monmouth sections to do very well in this storm. Would not be surprised to see close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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