IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 09z SREF's are in. The 0.50"+ contour is about to NYC. Also the Hudson valley is all 0.50"+. Most of NJ is in the 0.25-0.50" contour. That's slightly drier than 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 09z SREF's are in. The 0.50"+ contour is about to NYC. Also the Hudson valley is all 0.50"+. Most of NJ is in the 0.25-0.50" contour. That's slightly drier than 03z. How far back did the latest EURO take the .50 line? Was it western jersey to the Delaware? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 09z SREF's are in. The 0.50"+ contour is about to NYC. Also the Hudson valley is all 0.50"+. Most of NJ is in the 0.25-0.50" contour. That's slightly drier than 03z. Lets brace ourselves for the people that will inevitably say the storm is going to underperform because the models are backing off now lol Me personally from where i am in suffolk county im going for 6-10" and if i get better ratios after 10pm tonight and a heavier band cant see why i dont push either side of 12". Either way we should all be happy that in a pattern like this we have a decent storm to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Let's keep this about the 12z model suite only. All other questions should be placed in a separate thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 How far back did the latest EURO take the .50 line? Was it western jersey to the Delaware? West of Allentown, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM is digging the trough to New Orleans. Given latest WV imagery that looks correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 12z NAM is dry through 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Light snow fills in by 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hr 15 steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM is going to come in wetter, you can see it already. For a 12 hour forecast, the 06z run was way off. The h5 trough is now modeled deeper and more consolidated near the East Coast. Amazing to see how bad these run to run variations are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Which is it? Drier or wetter? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Why is it so bad? Is there something else we should be using it for? It has been horrible all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z WSI RPM out thru 2am looks a little faster with steady snow in NYC as compared to 6z. Already widespread 4-6" by 2:30am on this map. Next few frames will find out if model is moving storm out faster or increasing its snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Which is it? Drier or wetter? Lol Going to be wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 This run is less progressive. Moderate snow up to Philly hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Which is it? Drier or wetter? Lol Going to be wetter thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hr 18 steady snow. Mod-heavy up to Phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Let the run play out, weenie. How crazy to think we may have some actual analysis in here. Anyway, it looks a little bit off with precipitation at 06 hours. So we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 is it me or does the start time keep getting later and later ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 09z Steady light to moderate snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hr 21 steady snow continues. Mod snow has pushed off coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The vort max this time is passing directly over NJ instead of just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hr 21 steady snow continues. Mod snow has pushed off coast The moderate snow never makes it north of Ocean County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Inv trof signal is still there at 21 hours. Way different, and better, than the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The whole area is already over 0.25" by hour 21 which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Every one of these still showing something completely different http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/f21.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hour 24 the light to moderate snow continues. Vorticy once again exploding south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Inv trof signal is still there at 21 hours. Way different, and better, than the 06z run. Can be a major factor but sooo difficult to forecast location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hour 27 everything pulling away. 0.50"+ line is southeast of NYC. The trough literally develops 3-6 hours too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks to be a bit nicer than last run which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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