forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Radar looks horrible...bust! :-P Just joking! Radar looks solid actually! Starting to fill in. Keep in mind the donut hole is supposed to be there for now. It will continue to fill as the day goes on. the steady snow won't arrive until around 0z. i almost want to take a break from the board til then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the nam is also too aggressive with convection well offshore Tell you forky this storm has a high potential to bust in a good way. I wasnt expecting this snow this morning at all. The radar also looks much better than NAM/srefs had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 We have to now-cast, maybe one more peak at the 12z models, especially GFS/Euro and the hi-res. Alot of folks could end up getting 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 We have to now-cast, maybe one more peak at the 12z models, especially GFS/Euro and the hi-res. Alot of folks could end up getting 12" Why 12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Why 12"?You ever hear of 15:1 or higher ratios in a storm where at its peak were going to be in the mid-low teens or single digits. Jackpots of 12"+ are possible but will be isolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What times do the HRRR and short range models run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Radar looks impressive. Motion to the south of us looks more NNE than ENE. I think low will be closer to coast than currently forecasted. Phasing already happening sooner than modeled to our south. This is going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Radar looks impressive. Motion to the south of us looks more NNE than ENE. I think low will be closer to coast than currently forecasted. Phasing already happening sooner than modeled to our south. This is going to be good. the whole thing looks to be going as modeled, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the whole thing looks to be going as modeled, IMO. Agreed. So far, the warm air advection has been well-modeled. For example, the 6z GFS had 0.08" qpf in Boston by 12z and the actual figure was 0.07". For NYC, it had 0.02" and that's what fell. Where there have been some issues is that the warm air advection has been a little less than modeled across Long Island e.g., Islip had a forecast of 0.04" qpf by 12z but 0.01" fell. In the larger scheme of things, there are no big departures from the modeling at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Radar looks impressive. Motion to the south of us looks more NNE than ENE. I think low will be closer to coast than currently forecasted. Phasing already happening sooner than modeled to our south. This is going to be good. You would have to wait and see and watch the pressure falls and radar trends later. Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 AM EST Thu Jan 02 2014 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 02 2014 - 12Z Sat Jan 04 2014 ... Organizing winter storm to impact much of the Eastern U.S.... ...Arctic air set to infiltrate the Northeast in the wake of the system... Precipitation will continue to expand and push eastward today along and ahead of a frontal boundary draped from the Mid-Atlantic back toward the lower Mississippi Valley. In the Gulf Mexico, another frontal boundary is slowly lifting northward, helping to spread rain through the Southeast. These two areas will merge off the East Coast later tonight and will coalesce into a rapidly deepening system just southeast of New England. With cold air in place to the north and northwest of the low center, light to moderate snow is expected. Parts of southern New England and eastern/southeastern NY may experience a period of heavy snow with blustery winds as the low pressure deepens but pulls away from the coast very early Friday, making travel difficult between New York and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42242-12z-model-discussion-1214/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 RGEM totals from 06z were close to the 00z maybe a shade east Still general 0.40 - 0.60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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