HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Are you speaking mainly to the western parts of NC? It would be great if western SC were in the mix, and admittedly I could be missing something - I'm just not seeing it. Based purely off the NAM only, it looks like the front sweeps through NC and SC with some snow showers in its wake. No major accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And a pretty snowy one too for the western Carolina's. All the precipitation from the NAM looks to be post-frontal, well into the cold air. Wont' be terribly long-lived, but should be a 3-5 hour window of synoptic snows after the front goes through late Sunday night. When you say Western NC are you saying just mountains or do we have a chance in Northern foothills too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Agreed, snow growth according to the bufkit I ran on the 06z nam will be decent with rising omega during the latter half of the event. The only "trouble" is that it's the NAM, and it's the NAM at 66-72 hours. Sigh. Need the GFS to get on board with this snowier post-frontal idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 In addition to the colder run of the 12z NAM, it also looked to be a bit moister along and just behind the artic front. Particularly for areas from Atlanta and points north and west. With the kind of temps were looking at both ground and air, it won't take much to add a little icing to the cake in these parts IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 When you say Western NC are you saying just mountains or do we have a chance in Northern foothills too ? Should be northern foothills too. Much less QPF though the further east you get from the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wish casting here, but what if the arctic front comes through Sunday night and get a little low to form on the front after it moves through the Carolina's ? That would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Damn sure is. And I need to make a correction, via the soundings on twister 850mb temps get down to -21.5c down to atlanta itself. I can't remember what larry said was the record but that has to be close to it. Nah, go out in shorts. It's going to be pretty hot I'm going to get out in it and enjoy it though lol. It's so rare for it to get this cold, it's certainly worth it to make sure you experience it. My neighbors are used to seeing me outside, not dressed appropriately, and chanting to the snow gods It's a good thing I live in the country Hopefully the models are, once again, wrong with the amount of moisture rolling threw and some of us will luck up and see something frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Data extraction on the NAM that run has KCLT at 11 degrees at 0z Monday. Really makes you wonder though how cold it will really get monday night/tue morning. Despite it starting off very cold monday evening, the models really don't drop temps too much only 5 to 8 degrees overnight from temps at sunset. Will be interesting to see if they are correct or if it actually is colder still. And a pretty snowy one too for the western Carolina's. All the precipitation from the NAM looks to be post-frontal, well into the cold air. Wont' be terribly long-lived, but should be a 3-5 hour window of synoptic snows after the front goes through late Sunday night. Looking at 850mb to 925 mb RH, likely to be another round of decent snow showers over much of the western half of Ga too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Are you speaking mainly to the western parts of NC? It would be great if western SC were in the mix, and admittedly I could be missing something - I'm just not seeing it. FWIW GSP has been showing snow sun night for the last three days. There's one thing about it with this strong of artic air, if there is any moisture around it will definently be frozen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Damn sure is. And I need to make a correction, via the soundings on twister 850mb temps get down to -21.5c down to atlanta itself. I can't remember what larry said was the record but that has to be close to it. Nah, go out in shorts. It's going to be pretty hot I'm going to get out in it and enjoy it though lol. It's so rare for it to get this cold, it's certainly worth it to make sure you experience it. Oh I'll get to experience this cold alright. Hanging off a telephone pole in this will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12Z GFS lends its support - a bit! Perhaps a little juicier than the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The only "trouble" is that it's the NAM, and it's the NAM at 66-72 hours. Sigh. Need the GFS to get on board with this snowier post-frontal idea. 12z GFS is showing a brief 3 hour window of probably .10 falling as snow in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z GFS has freezing temps getting down to almost Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Based purely off the NAM only, it looks like the front sweeps through NC and SC with some snow showers in its wake. No major accumulations. I can see the possibility - but as you said - it's the NAM which has fooled me too many times. Your key word "synoptic" though, caught my attention. FWIW GSP has been showing snow sun night for the last three days. There's one thing about it with this strong of artic air, if there is any moisture around it will definently be frozen! Definitely agree - my suspicion lies in just how much moisture would be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Really makes you wonder though how cold it will really get monday night/tue morning. Despite it starting off very cold monday evening, the models really don't drop temps too much only 5 to 8 degrees overnight from temps at sunset. Will be interesting to see if they are correct or if it actually is colder still. Looking at 850mb to 925 mb RH, likely to be another round of decent snow showers over much of the western half of Ga too. I'm hoping for a 2003 part two. A quick moving squall dropped an inch of fluff with very little qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z nam bufkit shows even more frozen precip for KAVL. Starts as zr late Saturday into early Sunday morning, changes to rain for an hour or two before the front passes and then shows rain changing to snow Sunday night into Monday. Overall this solution looks a little more moist. The nam had a pretty good handle on this snow from last night for our area. It showed a decent hit from about 72hrs out so I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it, even though the gfs has proven itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm hoping for a 2003 part two. A quick moving squall dropped an inch of fluff with very little qpf. Sure wouldn't take much actual liquid to get it. btw, the 12z gfs shows atlanta might not even hit 20 for a high on tuesday..and certainly staying in the teens for areas north and west of a line from the northern burbs of atlanta to gainesville. That's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I can see the possibility - but as you said - it's the NAM which has fooled me too many times. Your key word "synoptic" though, caught my attention. Definitely agree - my suspicion lies in just how much moisture would be available. Looking at the 12z GFS is juicer and looks like we might could squeeze out a inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I can see the possibility - but as you said - it's the NAM which has fooled me too many times. Your key word "synoptic" though, caught my attention. Definitely agree - my suspicion lies in just how much moisture would be available. Glad it caught your attention - it was supposed to. There looks to be minimal moisture for a true Northwest Flow Snow Event this time, so most of the snow showers will be synoptically forced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Glad it caught your attention - it was supposed to. There looks to be minimal moisture for a true Northwest Flow Snow Event this time, so most of the snow showers will be synoptically forced. I have a question, my location is right at the foot of the mnts in the upstate, if the snow is synoptically forced would places closer to the mnts have a better chance of seeing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looking at the 12z GFS is juicer and looks like we might could squeeze out a inch. The mountains look to get a good amount. With crashing temps aloft which would produce higher snow ratios along the lines of 15-20:1 but as much as .25-.5"qpf. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_072_precip_p06.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_075_precip_p06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tues Morning Lows on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The mountains look to get a good amount. With crashing temps aloft which would produce higher snow ratios along the lines of 15-20:1 but as much as .5"qpf. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_072_precip_p06.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_075_precip_p06.gif I agree but I was also referring to our area in upstate, looks like around .10 which would be a inch if 10:1 but as you stated even .10 at a higher rate would be more even for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tues Aftn Highs on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Brutal^ Can you post the windchill map as well? Where do you subscribe to get those maps? I like those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I have a question, my location is right at the foot of the mnts in the upstate, if the snow is synoptically forced would places closer to the mnts have a better chance of seeing it? In this case, yes, simply because it looks like moisture is scoured out east of the mountains due to downsloping winds. But certainly would expect snow showers and flurries - just not accumulating much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Brutal^ Can you post the windchill map as well? Where do you subscribe to get those maps? I like those. http://www.weatherbell.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tues Morning Lows on 12z GFS Wow at that map Grit. As Hurricanetracker mentioned looks like another period of some snow for the mountains. Enjoy fellas before the bottom drops out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tues Morning Lows on 12z GFS CAE won't see single digits with that breeze blowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Coldest Wind Chill panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.