Marion_NC_WX Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 One or two snow flakes falling on occasion, temp down to 26... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro colder with the exception of Eastern NC, VA, and SC at hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 0z Euro...through 84 has boundary moving east of the Apps, some lagging behind in North Carolina due to the terrain but mountains and west of mountains also down into NW GA Northern AL already dropping into teens/20's by 84 (12z Mon) EDIT: one difference I do see between Euro and GFS is the holding back along the immediate of the Apps in NC/SC. GFS is so powerful that temps actually fall on Monday where as some downslope holds temps steady on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro colder at 96 for the entire SE hour 102 also 108 also colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not a huge difference through 108 (12z Tues), but colder. Below zero temps with any elevation in the Apps. Single digits Western half of Carolinas and down into Metro Atlanta. Teens the rest of Georgia and Carolinas, as least far enough inland from any ocean influence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The wind is howling right now! Probably picked up in the last 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ECMWF 0z 03JAN14 for 7:00am Tue showing some -12f surface in NC Mountains 850s showing -27c or -16.6f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Plenty cold through 144 as airmass slowly moderates...just looking at the Euro I think if we overachieve anywhere it could be with the Wednesday morning and afternoon temp numbers. Light winds and radiation could really send those temps lower than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Plenty cold through 144 as airmass slowly moderates...just looking at the Euro I think if we overachieve anywhere it could be with the Wednesday morning and afternoon temp numbers. Light winds and radiation could really send those temps lower than progged.Thursday freezing rain still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thursday freezing rain still there? Nope...leaves all energy in the southwest. Northern stream flattens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The 06Z GFS holds serve on the numbing cold. Hickory still looks to have approximately 72 hours below freezing from roughly noon on Monday to noon on Thursday with a low temp of around 5 degrees. Unlike the Euro, there is still some moisture around for the potential ZR event too on Thursday night/Friday morning; however, temps look slightly too warm verbatim (this is just for Hickory and nearby locales). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FFC still very very conservative next week. I just don't get it? If some one could shed a light on this I would appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FFC still very very conservative next week. I just don't get it? If some one could shed a light on this I would appreciate it. What don't you get? Its the same when the models show 6-10" of snow 5 days out, I bet FFC doesn't put 6-10" in their point in click for something in that time frame.....whats if they go with extreme cold in their forecast today and then it doesn't happen? They will put it in there most likely tomorrow night into Sunday, I suspect that is when most local NWS offices around here will jump on it and they will jump on it hard but not till they get within say 72 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FFC still very very conservative next week. I just don't get it? If some one could shed a light on this I would appreciate it. I think its been explained numerous times. It's the same argument as to why the haven't issued WSW for an upcoming event. Trust me they have their reasons. I don't know why some people get so up in arms. They will address the cold weather to give people plenty of time to make preperations. You really keep harping on this over and over/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think its been explained numerous times. It's the same argument as to why the have issues WSW for an upcoming event. Trust me they have their reasons. I don't know why some people get so up in arms. They will address the cold weather to give people plenty of time to make preperations. You really keep harping on this over and over/ I know lol. If there is no warning watch etc and yet it is snowing who cares? If they call for 6" and we wake up to sun everyone cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FFC's forecast discussion looks pretty spot on to me???? DEESELONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...FOR THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS BECOMINGMORE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH AWEAKENING/EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND MOISTURE INCREASINGSLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE. BY SATURDAY EVENING THERE SHOULD BEINCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FOR SUNDAYINTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL START OF AS RAINTHEN TURN TO SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ASTEMPS DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ISPROGGED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH THEASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTDOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT BUT THE BIG DEAL IS THEVERY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND IT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILLDEFIANTLY HAVE TO MONITOR PRECIP TYPE AS TEMPS WILL BE FALLINGFAST OVER NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITHTHIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITHTEMP TIMING. THE VERY COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT AREEXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS VALUES 15-20 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL ARE POSSIBLE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THECOLDEST TIMES. LOOKING FOR SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHTAND TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TOREMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREAAND MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUNDWED/THU GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THU/FRI. THERE ISANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH GA THU SO WILLCONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FFC's forecast discussion looks pretty spot on to me???? DEESE LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH A WEAKENING/EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE. BY SATURDAY EVENING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL START OF AS RAIN THEN TURN TO SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT BUT THE BIG DEAL IS THE VERY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND IT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL DEFIANTLY HAVE TO MONITOR PRECIP TYPE AS TEMPS WILL BE FALLING FAST OVER NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMP TIMING. THE VERY COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS VALUES 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST TIMES. LOOKING FOR SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND WED/THU GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THU/FRI. THERE IS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH GA THU SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW I just basing it on what the models have been showing, they have been trending colder and colder, yet FFC is still way to warm based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think its been explained numerous times. It's the same argument as to why the haven't issued WSW for an upcoming event. Trust me they have their reasons. I don't know why some people get so up in arms. They will address the cold weather to give people plenty of time to make preperations. You really keep harping on this over and over/ Please don't put me in a "harping" category I think that guy Brick is the king of that, just simply asked a question. No need to be rude. Just curious, why does your temp avatar say 66 degrees? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Please don't put me in a "harping" category I think that guy Brick is the king of that, just simply asked a question. No need to be rude. Just curious, why does your temp avatar say 66 degrees? Thanks I think Cherokee County airport isn't reporting right. I've been 66 and sunny for months now. Really, I hit 18 last night ( tried to update it, we'll see what happens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think Cherokee County airport isn't reporting right. I've been 66 and sunny for months now. Really, I hit 18 last night ( tried to update it, we'll see what happens) You should use KMGE, Marietta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I was at 11 this morning when I had to go get bacon, etc. for breakfast... FWIW: I am using KCNI in my settings - showing 21 and Calm (at 1500 Z)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z nam is a bit colder aloft than it's prior runs and the gfs. -20c (almost -21c) 850mb temps down to atlanta and athens by 0z tue. Gfs has it near the tn/nc/ga border during the same period. And checkout how far south it has it around hour 78 to 81, down into central alabama! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ^man, that is an extremely cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z nam is a bit colder aloft than it's prior runs and the gfs. -20c (almost -21c) 850mb temps down to atlanta and athens by 0z tue. Gfs has it near the tn/nc/ga border during the same period. And checkout how far south it has it around hour 78 to 81, down into central alabama! Maybe I'll finally get to bring the leather jacket out of hibernation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Data extraction on the NAM that run has KCLT at 11 degrees at 0z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I just basing it on what the models have been showing, they have been trending colder and colder, yet FFC is still way to warm based on that. They have to temper the model output with climo and experience to generate a forecast. They can't start sounding the alarm on every event that shows up on the GFS 4+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ^man, that is an extremely cold run. Damn sure is. And I need to make a correction, via the soundings on twister 850mb temps get down to -21.5c down to atlanta itself. I can't remember what larry said was the record but that has to be close to it. Maybe I'll finally get to bring the leather jacket out of hibernation Nah, go out in shorts. It's going to be pretty hot I'm going to get out in it and enjoy it though lol. It's so rare for it to get this cold, it's certainly worth it to make sure you experience it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ^man, that is an extremely cold run. And a pretty snowy one too for the western Carolina's. All the precipitation from the NAM looks to be post-frontal, well into the cold air. Wont' be terribly long-lived, but should be a 3-5 hour window of synoptic snows after the front goes through late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And a pretty snowy one too for the western Carolina's. All the precipitation from the NAM looks to be post-frontal, well into the cold air. Wont' be terribly long-lived, but should be a 3-5 hour window of synoptic snows after the front goes through late Sunday night. Are you speaking mainly to the western parts of NC? It would be great if western SC were in the mix, and admittedly I could be missing something - I'm just not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And a pretty snowy one too for the western Carolina's. All the precipitation from the NAM looks to be post-frontal, well into the cold air. Wont' be terribly long-lived, but should be a 3-5 hour window of synoptic snows after the front goes through late Sunday night. Agreed, snow growth according to the bufkit I ran on the 06z nam will be decent with rising omega during the latter half of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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