Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 On the Monday-Tuesday event? No...this would be next Thursday as moisture begins to advect into the rear half of the airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 No...this would be next Thursday as moisture begins to advect into the rear half of the airmass. Ah gotcha. That would make sense then. From my experience cold airmasses are very difficult to scour out at the low levels in the usual CAD areas of GA-SC-NC. WIth this all-timer airmass I suspect the same will be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I haven't looked at meteostar in quite some time but, it has some interesting temps for KAVL for sure. It show a 24° temp drop (44-20) from 3pm to 9pm for today! It also has Tuesday 1/7 7am 2m temp of -1°.......Yikes!!! Thats plausible. For that time frame its been showing a min low ranging from 4-8 above with dps in the -10s . Hard to say which is right euro or gfs but will be interesting to see if winds continue to blow to allow mixing if we can get some calm winds to allow for good radiational cooling probably could see temps alot colder by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think this would be the coldest for CHS since December 26, 2004, when it was 36 for a high, if that forecast verifies. That would be 27 degrees below average. Yeah, it would be the coldest in a long time that I can remember actually. if the high stays or hits at the freezing mark, no higher, that would be the first time since January 1994 when the high was 31, can't remember the specific date but I think it was a day or two after the Northridge Quake in Cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 No...this would be next Thursday as moisture begins to advect into the rear half of the airmass.Don't let Brick start the thread!! This is not your ordinary cold, as many have stated. I'm going with an imby forecast of 5 degrees above on Monday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 any word from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 any word from the euro? Looks cold and dry through 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks cold and dry through 12z Thursday. Thanks. Are the temperatures as cold as the GFS has been showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS is just plum cold. Look at these high temperatures. 19 in Hickory? And the trend has been cooler with each model run! Cold temperatures look to be in store for a lot of southeast... or should I say Arctic temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ^Holy. Wonder when the last time we stayed at or below freezing for the whole day was. Can you post a map like that with the low temps as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 /\ Ugh- left all of my faucets dripping at OKI before we drove back up to CLT this afternoon- this is pretty interesting from a meteorological standpoint, but from a real world standpoint I am not real psyched about this. We have a bunch of cyads and palms in front of our house (sago, pindo and fan palms) that will probably not do so hot if the temperature gets below 10 F out on the island; I also have drip irrigation, which can present a whole other issue if the ground freezes. The cold kills trout and redfish as well; they go way up in the creeks and sit on the black mud (gets really warm in the sun); when the creeks get too cold, it ends up killing a bunch of them....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thats plausible. For that time frame its been showing a min low ranging from 4-8 above with dps in the -10s . Hard to say which is right euro or gfs but will be interesting to see if winds continue to blow to allow mixing if we can get some calm winds to allow for good radiational cooling probably could see temps alot colder by a few degrees. Folks the windchills are going to be a big story too. The gfs has some strong winds to go along with those frigid temps, especially in north/central ga and sc. Gfs has substained winds in the 15 to 25mph range while the temps are in the single digits/teens. I'm using the 06z gfs run since the 12z run was missed up on twister..but per that model run, Monday afternoon, for example. Gainesville is in the low teens with winds of 20 knots! By 0z Tuesday gfs soundings show a surface temp -15.9 or around 3 or 4 above zero..while having a surface wind of 18 knots! Even by tuesday morning, the winds are still in the 10 to 15 knot range area wide with temps between 0 and 5 or 6 degrees. This translates to windchills of roughly -5 to as low as 15 below zero for north ga during much of monday and/or monday night/tuesday am. It will be interesting to see if these really high winds pan out with these type of temps. I can't recall ever seeing temps as low as what is being put out there with winds that high at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Extrapolating the 18Z NAM and this cold is going to be outrageous to say the least. At HR84 the PV digs further south and west than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Extrapolating the 18Z NAM and this cold is going to be outrageous to say the least. At HR84 the PV digs further south and west than GFS. Interesting. There are some small changes, but the GFS remains the coldest at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hopefully that Low will kick out into the gulf and bring us a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS is just plum cold. Look at these high temperatures. 19 in Hickory? And the trend has been cooler with each model run! Cold temperatures look to be in store for a lot of southeast... or should I say Arctic temperature? Hey Jordan, we have regional maps too. See the region drop down box at the top in the model center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Interesting. There are some small changes, but the GFS remains the coldest at that time. Yea, small changes...like the fact that the NAM has a high sliding out of Montana 10mb higher than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 absolutely nuts...18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yea, small changes...like the fact that the NAM has a high sliding out of Montana 10mb higher than the GFS. Really would not worry about the high. Would rather worry about the low in central Canada. That will displace the cold from Canada into the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 absolutely nuts...18z gfs. 5-8 at Atlanta, yikes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 absolutely nuts...18z gfs. Wow. Below 0 up this way. Absolutely frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 absolutely nuts...18z gfs. This is what came to mind when I looked at that map! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gciFoEbOA8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Folks the windchills are going to be a big story too. The gfs has some strong winds to go along with those frigid temps, especially in north/central ga and sc. Gfs has substained winds in the 15 to 25mph range while the temps are in the single digits/teens. I'm using the 06z gfs run since the 12z run was missed up on twister..but per that model run, Monday afternoon, for example. Gainesville is in the low teens with winds of 20 knots! By 0z Tuesday gfs soundings show a surface temp -15.9 or around 3 or 4 above zero..while having a surface wind of 18 knots! Even by tuesday morning, the winds are still in the 10 to 15 knot range area wide with temps between 0 and 5 or 6 degrees. This translates to windchills of roughly -5 to as low as 15 below zero for north ga during much of monday and/or monday night/tuesday am. It will be interesting to see if these really high winds pan out with these type of temps. I can't recall ever seeing temps as low as what is being put out there with winds that high at the same time. if this verifies even close it going to the coldest in a while. interesting you point out the winds. most of the times we are rooting for the winds to die down, or the forecast for the coldest temps are if the sky is clear and winds calm. this will give us the extremely cold temps with winds (and get the surface nice and cold for what might happen later in the week lol) speaking of winds, they have really picked up this evening. temp at 34 (too bad cold is chasing the moisture away) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wow at the 18z GFS. 5 to 10 below Zero around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FFC has a high of 38 at KATL on Monday LOL, they are going to bust by at least 15 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FFC has a high of 38 at KATL on Monday LOL, they are going to bust by at least 15 degrees. They don't want to forecast anything too anomalous until right before the event when they have higher confidence. It's common sense. They're minimizing bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 They are well known for that..FFC has way too large a geographical area to forecast, I mean it goes from almost semi alpine conditions in the GA mtns to sub to almost tropical in south-central GA. This discussion can continue in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 They don't want to forecast anything too anomalous until right before the event when they have higher confidence. It's common sense. They're minimizing bust potential. too many people forget this...if they start forecasting once in a decade cold and people get hyped up and the temps bust then they look like fools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This discussion can continue in the banter thread Sorry about that...Got carried away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 updated 0z run chill 12z tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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