GaWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I remember January 21, 1985 in Atlanta we had 0 snow cover and it was -8 at KATL and I had -12 where I lived. I am 58 years old...It was amazing when the arctic front went through, it was about 8 in the morning the wind was blowing at about 45 knots and we had blowing snow that was so dry it looked like a lonely road in ND. The Temp feel all day. The snow was just part of the front, but I remember the wind chill reached an insane -55 before they redid the wind chill value chart. Here is a great clip from the Christmas outbreak of 1983, remember it very well. The lights on my outdoor tree exploded... I compared Gene Rubin's 4 day forecast noted in this video with what actually occurred: 12/26/83: Gene had 0/26 with sunshine; Actual was 5/29 12/27: Gene had 22/33 with IP and ZR; Actual was 23/38 with 0.34" of rainfall and a trace of wintry precip. falling and on the ground 12/28: Gene had 32/42 and a chance of rain. Actual was 31/50 with 1.48" of rain 12/29: Gene had 44 and a low dropping to 27 just before midnight & PC skies. Actual was a 42 high with low of 18 hit just before midnight and .04" of rain KATL went down to 10 and 12 the next two mornings!! What a late Dec.! There were a whopping 10 lows of teens or lower that winter and 5 highs of 32 or lower! Feb. had 1.3" of snow including a very quick heavy 1" fall when rain changed to snow the evening of 2/5/1984 just behind a very intense cold front that brought a low of 15 the next morning. The roads quickly became very treacherous. I remember this vividly because my friend was driving and got into a minor accident due to sliding on an icy road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pretty big difference between this run of the Euro and yesterdays run. This run keeps the cold air hanging around an extra 24 hours instead of an in and out type of deal. interesting if keeps the trough dug in longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I compared Gene Rubin's 4 day forecast noted in this video with what actually occurred: 12/26/83: Gene had 0/26 with sunshine; Actual was 5/29 12/27: Gene had 22/33 with IP and ZR; Actual was 23/38 with 0.34" of rainfall and a trace of wintry precip. falling and on the ground 12/28: Gene had 32/42 and a chance of rain. Actual was 31/50 with 1.48" of rain 12/29: Gene had 44 and a low dropping to 27 just before midnight & PC skies. Actual was a 42 high with low of 18 hit just before midnight and .04" of rain KATL went down to 10 and 12 the next two mornings!! What a late Dec.! There were a whopping 10 lows of teens or lower that winter and 5 highs of 32 or lower! Feb. had 1.3" of snow including a very quick heavy 1" fall when rain changed to snow the evening of 2/5/1984 just behind a very intense cold front that brought a low of 15 the next morning. The roads quickly became very treacherous. I remember this vividly because my friend was driving and got into a minor accident due to sliding on an icy road. So Channel 5 was, and is, I guess, on Briarcliff, just down in that gully. Ne side of town. My old neighborhood. Is he calling for there, or the airport, or Buckhead? St. Mtn? Marietta? The Heart of Atlanta Motel, that used to be the spot in downtown you used for Atl The only time I nearly ever froze to death was in downtown Atl The airport is in la la land. I think my head would explode if I had to call for the airport, and I was living in Buckhead, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It may not belong in here but fwiw I'll mention that the 0Z Euro does have some light ZR (up to ~0.10-20") on Thursday evening, 1/9, in part of the upstate of SC and into the western half of NC due to an in-situ CAD associated with a piece of the Arctic high (~1030 mb) lingering there. That would probably make for a real mess on the roads being that it would come on the heels of the big cold snap. No recent Euro run had anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 From Dr Ryan Maue ECMWF 12z Ensembles showed high-certainty on at least -20°C air at 850-mb over Ohio Valley Tuesday w/more in Arctic http://t.co/6U2J4YlC3d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 From Dr Ryan Maue ECMWF 12z Ensembles showed high-certainty on at least -20°C air at 850-mb over Ohio Valley Tuesday w/more in Arctic http://t.co/6U2J4YlC3d Euro looked colder than the 12z run. trends are certainly colder. Wounder how cold the trends will go..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like the 06z trended colder. Just flows the cold air into TN, northern parts of AL and into north GA. Wow just a very cold solution straight into the mountains. Another model run another trend to a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ugh I wanted to meet the wind chill advisory criteria, but anyhow :shiver: STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ALL OF THE RAIN. COLD AIR WILL BLAST INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL BECOME WINDY WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RAPIDLY RISING PRESSURES. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR NORTHEAST FLORIDA COUNTIES. LOWER WIND CHILL CRITERIA (15 DEGREES) ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY THERE. HAVE ALREADY HOISTED A FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A PORTION OF EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA AS TEMPS DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This cold shot will be impressive. The timing/ placement of the high is a bit different between the Euro/ GFS... GFS has the coldest morning in the Carolinas as Tuesday morning... It's Wednesday morning for most on the Euro. It was interesting watching the model trends for this one. The GFS was clueless for a while there. I rode the Euro ensemble mean (especially ensemble mean 850 temps) as my main forecasting tool back on Monday-Wednesday, and now that looks like it will work out pretty well. This is pipe-bursting air that is inbound. Also... put this on Twitter this morning, but the GB-SF playoff game Sunday evening should be one of the 10 coldest NFL games of all time. Could easily be some sub-zero temps during the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS has a temp of 11 at KCLT at 0z on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 KFQD goes below freezing around 15z on Monday and does not come back to that mark until Wednesday around the same time!! As shown on the 6z gfs run. Looks to bottom out around 2 degree early Tuesday morning! GFS has a temp of 11 at KCLT at 0z on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FFC is still very conservative on their numbers??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This cold shot will be impressive. The timing/ placement of the high is a bit different between the Euro/ GFS... GFS has the coldest morning in the Carolinas as Tuesday morning... It's Wednesday morning for most on the Euro. It was interesting watching the model trends for this one. The GFS was clueless for a while there. I rode the Euro ensemble mean (especially ensemble mean 850 temps) as my main forecasting tool back on Monday-Wednesday, and now that looks like it will work out pretty well. This is pipe-bursting air that is inbound. Also... put this on Twitter this morning, but the GB-SF playoff game Sunday evening should be one of the 10 coldest NFL games of all time. Could easily be some sub-zero temps during the game. Thanks for the post. Ya the Euro really sniffed this out. I can remember when people were saying no way this would not happen then the GFS finally got hold of the pattern and well the rest is history. Still a lot of time between know and then but a lot of model consistency finally with this cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FFC is still very conservative on their numbers??? A lot of outlets are being conservative until we get further down the road as they should be. A trend north with the PV and we go from frigid to just cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 A lot of outlets are being conservative until we get further down the road as they should be. A trend north with the PV and we go from frigid to just cold. So are you saying numbers have come up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This cold shot will be impressive. The timing/ placement of the high is a bit different between the Euro/ GFS... GFS has the coldest morning in the Carolinas as Tuesday morning... It's Wednesday morning for most on the Euro. It was interesting watching the model trends for this one. The GFS was clueless for a while there. I rode the Euro ensemble mean (especially ensemble mean 850 temps) as my main forecasting tool back on Monday-Wednesday, and now that looks like it will work out pretty well. This is pipe-bursting air that is inbound. Also... put this on Twitter this morning, but the GB-SF playoff game Sunday evening should be one of the 10 coldest NFL games of all time. Could easily be some sub-zero temps during the game. Thanks for jumping in with your thoughts, Matt! Good to see you on here. We need some serious winter weather chances to attract all our great local mets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks for jumping in with your thoughts, Matt! Good to see you on here. We need some serious winter weather chances to attract all our great local mets! Sure thing. I am always around when the weather is interesting. And even though this isn't snow (outside the mountains), it is exciting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What a waste of cold. Typical. All we are going to get out of this is a higher electric bill. It's just going to be miserable and not any fun without snow. At least this will freeze the ground so if anything comes along later it will stick. Have to lay the groundwork, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FFC is still very conservative on their numbers??? FFC is usually rather conservative this far out; however, they have adjusted their numbers down considerably with their last couple forecast packages. I really think they have been putting out a better product recently. I just read James Spann's morning blog out of Birmingham. James is all in on the cold shot next week. He is calling for highs in the 20's both Monday and Tuesday. He said Birmingham will make a run at single digits Tuesday morning and be back in the teens Wednesday morning. This is a major cold forecast from 4-5 days out. Spann and East are two of the best mets in the south. Their language this morning (along with increasing model support) give me a high degree of confidence that major cold is on the way. Spann said it is likely the coldest air in 10 years (since Jan. 03). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What a waste of cold. Typical. All we are going to get out of this is a higher electric bill. It's just going to be miserable and not any fun without snow. Keep this stuff in the banter thread, Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FFC is usually rather conservative this far out; however, they have adjusted their numbers down considerably with their last couple forecast packages. I really think they have been putting out a better product recently. I just read James Spann's morning blog out of Birmingham. James is all in on the cold shot next week. He is calling for highs in the 20's both Monday and Tuesday. He said Birmingham will make a run at single digits Tuesday morning and be back in the teens Wednesday morning. This is a major cold forecast from 4-5 days out. Spann and East are two of the best mets in the south. Their language this morning (along with increasing model support) give me a high degree of confidence that major cold is on the way. Spann said it is likely the coldest air in 10 years (since Jan. 03). I agree with you. I guess we have Kirk Mellish as one of the best as well, but he is always on vacation (WSB radio), and fill in David Chandley is no where near the met Mellish is. Meteostar says a low of 6-7 in Atlanta Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 6z GFS colder, yes. Already dropping into the teens by 4 pm on the 6th, and single digits before 10 pm. Then break back into the low 20s by the afternoon on the 7th before diving back into the teens by the evening. So the peak of the cold shot hit between the 6th and 7th. If it were to slow down and span through most of the 7th, we'd definitely end up with a sub-20 degree high with sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 6z GFS colder, yes. Already dropping into the teens by 4 pm on the 6th, and single digits before 10 pm. Then break back into the low 20s by the afternoon on the 7th before diving back into the teens by the evening. So the peak of the cold shot hit between the 6th and 7th. If it were to slow down and span through most of the 7th, we'd definitely end up with a sub-20 degree high with sunshine. Still a novice here, but that looks like teens in Atlanta all day?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I compared Gene Rubin's 4 day forecast noted in this video with what actually occurred: 12/26/83: Gene had 0/26 with sunshine; Actual was 5/29 12/27: Gene had 22/33 with IP and ZR; Actual was 23/38 with 0.34" of rainfall and a trace of wintry precip. falling and on the ground 12/28: Gene had 32/42 and a chance of rain. Actual was 31/50 with 1.48" of rain 12/29: Gene had 44 and a low dropping to 27 just before midnight & PC skies. Actual was a 42 high with low of 18 hit just before midnight and .04" of rain KATL went down to 10 and 12 the next two mornings!! What a late Dec.! There were a whopping 10 lows of teens or lower that winter and 5 highs of 32 or lower! Feb. had 1.3" of snow including a very quick heavy 1" fall when rain changed to snow the evening of 2/5/1984 just behind a very intense cold front that brought a low of 15 the next morning. The roads quickly became very treacherous. I remember this vividly because my friend was driving and got into a minor accident due to sliding on an icy road. I can't imagine the whining on here if mets busted a Day 3 temp forecast by 8 degrees too low. Goes to show how far we've come in the last 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 6z GFS colder, yes. Already dropping into the teens by 4 pm on the 6th, and single digits before 10 pm. Then break back into the low 20s by the afternoon on the 7th before diving back into the teens by the evening. So the peak of the cold shot hit between the 6th and 7th. If it were to slow down and span through most of the 7th, we'd definitely end up with a sub-20 degree high with sunshine. I dont know how people arent more excited for this. As long as we hold the line or trend even colder, this is a once in a decade cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I dont know how people arent more excited for this. As long as we hold the line or trend even colder, this is a once in a decade cold shot. Exactly. This isn't your run of the mill cold shot..this is something that is actually memorable and doesn't occur too frequently. If one is a fan of weather, they should enjoy this. Will be interesting to see how the models verify in the final analysis. If it's colder than forecast, it really will be pretty special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Update from Dr Ryan Maue via Twitter: Ensemble mean contours of -30°C at 850-mb Tuesday (+5.5 days) inside 100% probability shading of below -20°C air http://t.co/oaX35Wn4TQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm really glad I'm not in MN/WI/IA next week. They're talking about 1+ days below -10F and lows in the -20s on the OV/Lakes forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm really glad I'm not in MN/WI/IA next week. They're talking about 1+ days below -10F and lows in the -20s on the OV/Lakes forum. Their have been reports this morning of -48 in Northern Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Still a novice here, but that looks like teens in Atlanta all day?? GFS meteostar output for KATL. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=katl Just enter a different ICAO to change locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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