deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I did...wow...your welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I had joked about that 0 degrees the Euro was showing the other day, it might have been spot on. But with the current trend, we might have some near 1985 cold in these parts. I don't see it getting that cold unless we get some snow cover during the passage of the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I have a bit of a warm bias in days 5-7 (probably the Florida boy in me... lol!). Like I said, Friday's cold is going to give us a good bead on whether the models are handling the Arctic cold in our backyard correctly or not. However, the 0Z GFS would certainly cause me to go lower with my forecast temps in the Mon/Tue time period... A 1038 mb high in NW Alabama... Calm winds... = You're more than likely correct with the 30/15 call, but I'd just like to see how Friday plays out before going all-in. BTW, in case people are wondering, Columbus, GA hasn't seen a low below 15 (which is certainly possible based on the 0Z GFS for Tuesday morning) since Jan 24, 2003 when we hit 12 degrees. The last time we saw single digits for a low was all the way back on Dec. 24, 1989 (I was almost 2... ) when we hit 9 degrees. A favor please, where did you get your climate data like that. I can't find that much stuff from FFC page. Thank You!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I am just as impressed by low temps, even without snow, when they occur in the south. Of course I don't wish for busted pipes on no one but we have no control over that no more than damage we see in storms. If it is anomalous, my interest goes very high. Also, with air this cold, any moisture in the atmosphere gets wrung out and we usually have a couple of episodes of microflakes. (The kind they have to turn the radar to high sensitivity mode to see). That beats nothing! Same here. I'm a lover of extremes, no matter what they are...that sounds crazy but it's what got me into weather. The fact that we aren't seeing snow when we're getting incredible cold is a downer, yeah, but the cold is an impressive event in itself and we'll remember this longer than we will 2" on the ground that melts the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I did...wow...your welcome Do you think that FFC will get a clue to this? Not bashing, just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 They know, but they step down gradually. its smart really.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't see it getting that cold unless we get some snow cover during the passage of the arctic front. I remember January 21, 1985 in Atlanta we had 0 snow cover and it was -8 at KATL and I had -12 where I lived. I am 58 years old...It was amazing when the arctic front went through, it was about 8 in the morning the wind was blowing at about 45 knots and we had blowing snow that was so dry it looked like a lonely road in ND. The Temp feel all day. The snow was just part of the front, but I remember the wind chill reached an insane -55 before they redid the wind chill value chart. Here is a great clip from the Christmas outbreak of 1983, remember it very well. The lights on my outdoor tree exploded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Models are in remarkable agreement right now with the overall evolution of this arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 very true. 1985 had snow cover upstream. Despite the lack of snow cover in the southeast, temperatures in the southeast plummeted to all time record lows including KCLT down to -5, KCHS 6, KJAX 7 without snow cover and without radiational cooling either as the parent high did not weaken much entering the US. A by-product of dumping the PV into the New England states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I have a bit of a warm bias in days 5-7 (probably the Florida boy in me... lol!). Like I said, Friday's cold is going to give us a good bead on whether the models are handling the Arctic cold in our backyard correctly or not. However, the 0Z GFS would certainly cause me to go lower with my forecast temps in the Mon/Tue time period... A 1038 mb high in NW Alabama... Calm winds... = You're more than likely correct with the 30/15 call, but I'd just like to see how Friday plays out before going all-in. BTW, in case people are wondering, Columbus, GA hasn't seen a low below 15 (which is certainly possible based on the 0Z GFS for Tuesday morning) since Jan 24, 2003 when we hit 12 degrees. The last time we saw single digits for a low was all the way back on Dec. 24, 1989 (I was almost 2... ) when we hit 9 degrees. 00z GFS looks like it might hit 9 in Columbus...It'll be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I remember January 21, 1985 in Atlanta we had 0 snow cover and it was -8 at KATL and I had -12 where I lived. I am 58 years old...Wow I thought you were down here with me. That run of the GFS was definitely much colder. Other runs barely brought the 0c line 850mb down into S GA. Now this run bring it into N FL and -10c near S GA. Also it looks like there may be some snow as the Arctic front passes looking at the GFS unless it's just cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I remember January 21, 1985 in Atlanta we had 0 snow cover and it was -8 at KATL and I had -12 where I lived. I am 58 years old... Yeah, we had sub-zero readings here with no snow cover as did most all of NC, but that air mass was much colder than this one. 850's don't get below -20C with this one. 1985 saw 850's below -20C over a good chunk of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 A favor please, where did you get your climate data like that. I can't find that much stuff from FFC page. Thank You!! Check your message box! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Gfs has a low of 5 below here on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, we had sub-zero readings here with no snow cover as did most all of NC, but that air mass was much colder than this one. 850's don't get below -20C with this one. 1985 saw 850's below -20C over a good chunk of our area. True... but has a similar look http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19850121/19850121_files/image006.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Can't wait to see what dew point and humidity levels are for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Don't look now but another arctic outbreak is on the 00z GFS at the end of the run. January thaw or January tundra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In Jan 1985, the PV made it as far south as the Michigan / Ohio border. -30 deg C at 850mb made it as far south as Chattanooga...-20 deg C made it to Wilmington, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z GFS looks like it might hit 9 in Columbus...It'll be close! True story! I might just make that trip down to Tallahassee to see the BCS Championship Game so I can escape the cold! The funny thing is, Tallahassee might record temperatures just as cold because of where the thermometer is located (the airport) for the official obs. The airport used to be a swamp and they brought in sand, which doesn't hold heat as well as regular dirt, to fill it in. That's why it usually runs quite a bit cooler than other spots around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I have no data to support this - only memory. After the surge in 1985, wasn't the rest of the deep/mid SE winter rather banal? It's great to see an historic event possibly unfolding, but practically speaking, wouldn't it be better in the long run to have the PV hang in and drop pieces in over a few weeks rather than do a Sherman's March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Widespread -20 dewpoints across North Carolina next Tuesday afternoon on the GFS...local fire departments are gonna be hating that, their hoses maybe not freeze up but will come close fighting fires. Then if you have to work a fire, you'll be spraying a layer of ice with that kind of airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 True story! I might just make that trip down to Tallahassee to see the BCS Championship Game so I can escape the cold! The funny thing is, Tallahassee might record temperatures just as cold because of where the thermometer is located (the airport) for the official obs. The airport used to be a swamp and they brought in sand, which doesn't hold heat as well as regular dirt, to fill it in. That's why it usually runs quite a bit cooler than other spots around the city. Yeah unlike KATL where they have the thermometer in the middle of a runway at the busiest airport in the world, but when we have a arctic front of great magnitude it is pretty uniform around the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Can't wait to see what dew point and humidity levels are for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Can't wait to see what dew point and humidity levels are for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. You can check out this site to give you an idea! Just change the site code on the right hand side of the screen to a location close to you. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kcsg The funny thing about the 0Z GFS is that, at least according to the info from the site above, the feels-like temp will be below 0 in Columbus. Looks like I won't be blowing out my birthday candles Monday night because I'll need them to keep warm! haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Widespread -20 dewpoints across North Carolina next Tuesday afternoon on the GFS...local fire departments are gonna be hating that, their hoses maybe not freeze up but will come close fighting fires. Then if you have to work a fire, you'll be spraying a layer of ice with that kind of airmass.That's what happened in Minnesota with the explosion with temps in the negatives today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The most extreme of the cold sure makes a fast exit. It has been ages since we've had a problem with 'stale' cold air due to blocking and warming of the in situ air mass causing it to become 'stale' and then not snowing for another reason. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 To be completely honest... I've been a bit gun-shy about next week's cold (low 40s for next Tuesday is what I had this morning...Although I can't deviate too much from the previous met's thoughts for consistency sake). Yes, I know the high is super strong and moves in fast, but how many times this winter have we seen the cold stop just short of our area (talking central AL/GA and southward...). Some of the cold the models are printing out would be the coldest Columbus, GA & surrounding areas have seen in 17 years (Feb. 4, 1996 was the last time we saw a high below freezing at 27 degrees). FWIW, I've had low-mid 40s in the forecast for highs on Friday for the past few mornings I've worked and lows in the mid 20s (low 20s for outlying locations), so this 00Z GFS run of "colder" air isn't all that surprising. However, it'll be interesting to see how cold a lot of locations actually get Friday as that will tell how well the models are handling the cold air masses heading south. If it's as cold as advertised on Friday, then I will definitely drop the hammer on Tuesday (likely our coldest day here) when I work again this weekend. Also, my "gut" is telling me that Columbus & surrounding areas won't be SUPER cold (highs in the mid 30s or lower) and that most of it will likely stay to our north in Tennessee and northern AL/GA. Cman, can't remember if you were up here in late Jan/early Feb 3 years back, but I stayed under freezing for about a week if I remember correctly. It was pretty impressive. Don't remember a spell that long. T Edit: Must be one of my fever dreams...I can't find it now. The best I can locate is early Jan 2010, for a stretch where the Experiment Station had highs in the low 30's. That may have been it for a 5 day stretch, then a 43 and back to the low 30's again. My stations were giving me right at freezing, or below, for that whole week as I remember it. But, hey, I thought it was Feb. so who knows where my head was at, lol. Anyway, it can and will get daytime cold down this way. I know I was repairing pipes during that run, and I'd been heating the house well, and running the water in pencil streams...but I needed to be running the hot just about wide open, lol. T Edit 2: The lows during that run were 23,18,17,17,18,21,17,12,17,16,26,17,23, then the heat started at 26. Not a bad run at all :)The next day it was in the 40's and we got 1.5. The twist of the dagger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Canadian model looks the same as the GFS maybe a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Friday, the temperatures sure do look cold for this time of year... This is the 18z GFS Model run for high temperatures Friday: Ya like some have said Friday is nothing to sneeze about especially in the mountains. I would not be surprised if they issued a wind chill advisory for Thursday night into Friday. Some dangerous cold to be out in. I would say some if the higher elevations could dip below zero especially if we have snow on the ground. Also the next arctic front here in the mountains and surrounding areas look very very cold especially with the 00z GFS. May 5-10 degrees below zero. Some dangerous cold coming our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Look at the coldpocalyps and the low behind it around MO, just can't win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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