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January 6-8 2014 arctic attack obs thread...


Marion_NC_WX

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I understand Guilford County is bringing in maintenance personnel early to warm up buses, buildings, etc . .., which is probably why some districts have chosen the delay even though there won't be much warm up over the two hours - Will save them overtime to maintenance employees.

It's not like the old days. All school heating and cooling is computer regulated and can be set by phone. Normally the heat is set to cycle down in the evening after the students and staff have left and it kicks back on at 6am or so to warm the buildings. When it gets down to single digits, trying to warm a school from 55 to 70 in the early morning is a stretch. We used to just set the system to stay on all night and never had an issue with building temps.

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Comparing the actual temps right now to AVN and NAM MOS, it is 2-8 degrees warmer. Therefore the GFS MOS forecast of 5 at Hartsfield is likely too cold. I expect 8-10 across the city.

 

 

Yeah noticed that.  FFC has been pretty spot on with temps.  They have me hitting 7 tonight which I think is about right down to 20 at the moment

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I think a lot of what has happened today (warmer than expected) has been due to a delay as a result of there being two Arctic surges. This is consistent with what I said yesterday in my upper Midwest related postings. So, perhaps it will still bottom out pretty close to earlier expectations tonight and tomorrow as a result of playing catchup. I don't know. Any opinions?

 

Just posted by the well respected Don Sutherland:

 

 "At 18z, temperatures were running somewhat below MOS in the Great Lakes and western portions of the Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, readings were generally running above the MOS projections (12z MOS guidance):"

 

 post-882-0-58065000-1389038476_thumb.jpg

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I have to say, it would be a crappy day to try winning the temp war in upstate SC. GSP (and every outlet that uses them) has changed their hour-by-hour like 6 times today.

 

It has remained 41 past every hour they kept changing. Not a fun place to forecast - I'm not beating up on these guys/gals at all.

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LOL at all the cliff jumpers east of the mountains..... this is true Arctic air coming from a less than perfect direction so it takes time to build up and then spill over the mountains. The cold is coming people, calm down!

 

I see this similar to the way I see moisture transfer happen in this corridor. I would not be surprised if areas East of CLT get colder than I will.

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Back down to 29 now. So the models were right showing temps falling through 10am, then rising until 18z or 19z and then falling again. Gainesville down to 21 where an hour ago they were 24. Some upper teens now showing up just northwest of atlanta on some stations. Would expect single digit temps to make their way into extreme  northwest georgia within  1 to 2 hours.

 

All of the models have warmed slightly at the surface and  aloft the last couple of runs so it might not be quite as cold as previously thought as others have previously mentioned. The models have done a really good job here as far as temps and timing go and if the winds stay up, I think they will probably be right..(slightly warmer). But if the winds die down more than expected, they might be too warm since models usually have a hard time estimating radiational cooling. As it stands now though, there has been a slight but noticable warming trend the last few model runs at all levels.

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I think the cold is a little overdone in my area yesterday the forecast was to be in the low 20's at this time today and I'm just now down to 33. so a good 10 degrees warmer than forecasted from yesterday! I say I'll be lucky to get down between 10-15 tonight for a low? of course it could be a matter of just being delayed?

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For what it's worth to you SC'ers.  Indianapolis was at 33 yesterday around noon, and hit -15 this morning.

Have faith in the polar vortex.  That really changed my tune...b/c I was also a naysayer yesterday.

 

Yeah some of these post are as bad as the ones we gotta put up when we got a snowstorm headed in, I think tonight may be overdone a bit but tomorrow is going to be rough and if the wind lays up tomorrow afternoon with temps already in the low 20's you can expect to see the bottom fall out. I know at least in my neck of the woods the models are always too warm by a good bit when we get good radiational cooling.

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Interesting watching what appears to be a second "surge" of cold air across north ga. Temps had remained steady or even rise a degree or two the last few hours but temps at 1pm are 1 or 2  degrees colder for many locals vs the previous hour.  Single digits  have been sitting just across the border at chattanooga  for a while and temps have fallen to the low to mid teens in far northwest ga. Meanwhile it's warmed to the upper 30s to lower 40s even in some parts of the upstate. It's quite amazing how much difference there is on the west side of the mountains vs the south/east side.

 

Temp is 31 here. The winds actually dropped down to just 5 or 10mph for 2 hours or so but in the last 20 or 30 minutes they are back up to 20 to 30mph.

Boy, no kidding. You can clearly see this next surge of cold air now in North Georgia. Appears to roughly parallel I-85. Temps dropping to 20 or below just to the west of I-85 in Gwinnett, Hall, etc. But still in the mid 20s just to the west.

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NWS from Raleigh isn't backing down on the cold tonight:

 

3:15pm

 

REVIEW OF CURRENT TEMPERATURES FROM THE BUILDING AIR SOURCE REGION
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST IS ASTONISHING...WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN -15 TO -2O F RANGE. THIS ANOMALOUSLY COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME...WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATES HAVING
ELUDED RDU FOR NEARLY 14 YEARS(1/29/2000-7 DEGREES F)...WITH A
SLIGHTLY SHORTER DROUGHT OF NEARLY 9 YEARS FOR GSO/PTI(1/24/2005-8
DEGREES F). BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MOS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...FORECAST LOWS OF 4 TO 7 F IN THE WESTERN-NORTH CENTRAL
PIEDMONT TO LOWER/MIDDLE TEENS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE.

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The panic shown on here by some of the posts in the past couple hours is laughable...

 

 

I think GaWx is bringing up an excellent point about how this air is coming in 2 different waves. Just compare dewpoints from the East side of the Apps to the west side and up into the Ohio Valley. There is going to be a second surge that will send the Apps in North Carolina below zero tonight...

 

 

Second people talk about downsloping and how it blocks air east of the mountains...you got to remember downsloping  is a product of the air mixing during daytime heating... as soon as the sun goes down you pretty much lose your compressive heating.

 

Think about it in the opposite manner, downslope warming during a heat wave in the summer occurs during peak heating, not at night.

 

As soon as downslope winds begin to cease in the next hour or so, the layer from aloft works it way back to the surface... temps will drop pretty quick east of the mountains. Then around late evening, we'll have another steep drop due to the advection of the coldest of air at 850-900mb.

 

 

In the 10 minutes it look me to type this my temp has dropped from 31 to 28...

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