GaWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Do you reckon any bias still shows this close to a now well sensored super cold outbreak? Now it's just a matter of high placement, terrain, and little things like lakes, mtns and trees, lol, isn't it? Would the mornings 6z still be biased for us even though the rest of the country has been well sampled? T Tony, When comparing MeteoStar to metro Atlanta conditions (not airport), I've seen it sometimes be too cold by a few degrees even for the most up to date run! I know that sounds crazy and almost impossible, but I promise I'm not making this up. Because the Euro is ~5 degrees warmer and because of my concern about a GFS cold bias in some situations, I decided to check out northern Midwest cities carefully today and compare to MeteoStar. Then again, I know the Euro has a warm bias. I know we're talking extreme cold regardless. This is a very exciting time! But since I'm a stats guy, even a few degrees either way is quite interesting to me. It could mean the difference between a once in nearly 30 year occurrence and a once in 11 year occurrence. I am keeping in mind that some of this is likely just due to a delay as the honorable Mr. Sutherland confirmed. But even he said in his reply to me that a GFS cold bias could be a factor, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Oh, I know where you are coming from You've got the fire lit, and the abacus clacking for all it's worth, lol. I hope you can go for a walk after the doc speaks. Nights like these are only a few in a lifetime, and can't be missed Sudden switch from warmish to cold tonight, and then the Siberian spring slap down tomorrow night, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Why are you using such a low resolution model for events that are within 48 hours? The NAM was warmer than forecast for St Paul, but at the same time colder than the GFS downstream. Interesting! We'll see what occurs down our way. Even though the NAM is a higher resolution model and it should be halfway decent within 48 hours, it isn't that accurate overall from what many have said and from what I can tell myself. So, even within 48 hours, I feel the GFS and Euro shouldn't be ignored. I just don't have a lot of confidence with the NAM. Anyway, I hope it being colder downstream means it is on to something down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 well both ffc and gsp have expanded their advisories a bit - even down towards gainesville and the metro and through ne ga. should be a wild night as the front moves through to say the least. maybe most of us can at least see some flakes zipping by in the howling winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I'm encouraged to see the line down in Ala fattening up a bit. I'm hoping for something to look at finally, after all these cold chasing rain scenarios. Oh, wait, that's what this is....again. Well, hoping the cold out tuns the water, for the first time in forever since these two have been racing in the south, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Interesting! We'll see what occurs down our way. Even though the NAM is a higher resolution model and it should be halfway decent within 48 hours, it isn't that accurate overall from what many have said and from what I can tell myself. So, even within 48 hours, I feel the GFS and Euro shouldn't be ignored. I just don't have a lot of confidence with the NAM. Anyway, I hope it being colder downstream means it is on to something down this way. Well the GFS is a synoptic scale model and the NAM is a mesoscale model so it's wiser to go with the NAM if the event is occurring or even better the RUC. Some do have alternate thoughts though, and that's what makes forecasting fun . interesting trends in the models i agree. Feel sorry for those who have early commutes though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 0z high resolution nam model. colder than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I feel for anyone who loses their power from the wind as the arctic air begins to slide in. That would be awful. More dangerous then any wintry precip IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The cold front is now entering NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 You can clearly see the front on the Knoxville/Tri Cities radar. It's-a cruisin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Temps still rising with rain inbound. Up to 40 in Boone and 44 in Asheville. I don't see the Piedmont being at freezing until late morning. Knoxville, TN is close to 50 degrees. The cold is taking its time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 You can clearly see the front on the Knoxville/Tri Cities radar. It's-a cruisin'. Yeah it seemed like it was in Nashville a few hours ago. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Temps still rising with rain inbound. Up to 40 in Boone and 44 in Asheville. I don't see the Piedmont being at freezing until late morning. Knoxville, TN is close to 50 degrees. The cold is taking its time. Sitting at 37 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Its funny Knoxville is at 50 degrees but some 10 to 15 miles away to the north of them there is snow falling. Drastic plummet of temp right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Its funny Knoxville is at 50 degrees but some 10 to 15 miles away to the north of them there is snow falling. Drastic plummet of temp right there. Yep just to the west of Knoxville in Crossville it is 28 degrees and snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 More GA closings and delays starting to come in for Monday. http://www.wsbtv.com/school-closings/search/ Metro ATL counties now joining the close party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Yep just to the west of Knoxville in Crossville it is 28 degrees and snowing. It would be nice to see that extreme difference happen in NC for once. But we have mountains to our west to not allow that. Futurecast shows it pretty well. Cold front races to the mountains and then takes its time to get over the mountains with the cold. Most of the precip will be well to the east and then downsloaping winds scatters the snow shower line out. http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=36.15&longitude=-81.16&zoomLevel=8&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0039 The CAD may be a few degrees above freezing but it is so difficult to drop with the rain/fog/soupy atmosphere. Mountains may start out 10 degrees warmer and still hit freezing hours before the CAD areas do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Front just moved through with moderate rain and gusty winds. Now the temperature is starting to plummet. My school is closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Front just moved through with moderate rain and gusty winds. Now the temperature is starting to plummet. My school is closed tomorrow. Dropping like a rock. It hit 50 at 11:47pm and now at 12:04am it is 46. Temp should drop from here down to around 5 degrees tomorrow night. This is an event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Dropping like a rock. It hit 50 at 11:47pm and now at 12:04am it is 46. Temp should drop from here down to around 5 degrees tomorrow night. This is an event lol Winds cranking I imagine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Snow still under performing. Cancellation of winter weather advisories still ongoing first in much of TN and now Birmingham, Alabama. Doesn't bode well for Atlanta, GA. A lot of areas are having to cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Snow still under performing. Cancellation of winter weather advisories still ongoing first in much of TN and now Birmingham, Alabama. Doesn't bode well for Atlanta, GA. A lot of areas are having to cancel. They are canceling cause the front and moisture has ended for them. Wide spread dusting in N AL and one report of half inch. Exactly what was predicted in the advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 They are canceling cause the front and moisture has ended for them. Wide spread dusting in N AL and one report of half inch. Exactly what was predicted in the advisories. looks like right over the border in north Alabama seems to have some good little showers. still awaiting the front, not to much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 They are canceling cause the front and moisture has ended for them. Wide spread dusting in N AL and one report of half inch. Exactly what was predicted in the advisories. Okay. I was just reading some Facebook posts from angry people lol. Here it says they cancelled as if they were expecting more than a dusting maybe? Not sure. I know a large area of Tennessee got cancelled earlier due to lower amounts of snow. US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabamaabout an hour ago 10PM WEATHER UPDATE:We have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. Although some sleet and/or light snow is still possible across the northeastern quarter of Central Alabama, nothing more than a dusting of snow is expected...mainly on decks and vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Here in Atlanta, we've reached our daytime high of 51°F and now temperatures are beginning their downward spiral.The arctic front rolled in after midnight12:15am - 51°F12:45am - 44.9°FTemperature dropped nearly 7 degrees in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Okay. I was just reading some Facebook posts from angry people lol. Here it says they cancelled as if they were expecting more than a dusting maybe? Not sure. I know a large area of Tennessee got cancelled earlier due to lower amounts of snow. if thats for alabama they were never supposed to get more than a dusting, maybe an inch in a few spots. saw pics on james spann blog and there is a good dusting of snow. i think he said that the cold air didnt rush in fast enough to flash freeze the roads. MADDOG - if that line on the radar is still the front it looks like its right on your doorstep lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Reading some of the disappointment to our west, lol. I would hate to have to post anything on Facebook about something being cancelled. Good lord... **** **** Can't you ppl get it right... You get everybody geared up, then, oh by the way we were wrong. Why don't you just say, we don't know, before the county waste a bunch of brine and road salt. 7 hours ago via mobile · Like · 2 US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee All, please stay on topics related to weather. Name calling will not be tolerated. Thanks! 5 hours ago · Like · 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Peaked at 48.2° before frontal passage at 12:40 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Reading some of the disappointment to our west, lol. I would hate to have to post anything on Facebook about something being cancelled. Good lord... US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee All, please stay on topics related to weather. Name calling will not be tolerated. Thanks! 5 hours ago · Like · 7 lol - well sounds like someone has been getting nasty comments/calls hahaha. i dont really know what it was supposed to do in nashville. so they may have had a snow bust. the mtns tend to keep the cold air delayed imby but since its a once in a 20 or 30 year event might as well stay up a little later than usual and check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I'm still going up. Now at 55. Looking forward to the U turn coming up When has cold chasing rain ever worked. Rain always wins, lol. Maybe the west side of hills will flash freeze. I've seen that all the way to Bham. Going up the east side was fine, going down the otherside was something different T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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