January 6-8 2014 arctic attack obs thread...

[JQPublic]

I think your making a mountain out of a mole hill. If the temps trend warmer by 4-6° its still unlike anything we are use to or have seen in the SE in many years.

 

Given that logic, I'd go from a high of 24 to a high of 30 and a low of 9 to a low of 15.  That isn't uncommon for us to see at least a couple times a season.

[Hammer]

Yes I do believe Cherokee will close.  The south end of the county is usually not so bad, but up here in the north end (we are southeast of Jasper just on the Cherokee side of the county line), in the foothills, the roads are two lane, hilly, and ice quickly.  And a lot of them don't get treated and quickly become impassable with some ice, as cars just slide down the hills or into the ditches.  It isn't safe to run the buses under those conditions even if the south end of the county is still OK.  The wind chill and very low temps are a different question; it's been so long since that happened here I have no idea if they're worried about the HVACs in the schools or not.

 

We've been waffling between drizzle and soft rain here where we are for about three hours.  We hurried back from a camping trip this afternoon and it started raining on us while we were unloading the truck a bit after 4pm.  Everything is quite wet right now (and the ground was already soaked to begin with from the last few months).

Hills here (mid-county) make it dangerous.  In 2010 (I believe, maybe 2009), when we had the bad ice, people had to park their cars on Sixes Road because they could not make it up the steep hills into their own neighborhoods; it took a 4 lane road into a 2 lane road in a lot of places.

[jburns]

Wouldn't delaying school make it even worse? I mean for some areas things won't freeze up until AFTER school originally starts.

A 2 hour delay in this case is just a way to allow themselves some time in the morning to asses the situation without having busses already rolling and kids standing at the bus stops.  If the forecasts hold they will cancel in the morning.

[ASU2014]

Winter Weather Advisories cancelled to our west in TN. Probably not what you want to hear if your in north GA and a few other areas that were expecting something.

 

Latest guidance and current trends are suggesting that snowfall could be considerably less than originally thought.

 

... Winter Weather Advisory is cancelled... 

The National Weather Service in Nashville has cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory. 

 

[GaWx]

I think that this very recent post sums it up well from the well respected Don Sutherland regarding the temperature lag vs. the GFS in the upper Midwest:

 

"Some evening thoughts...

 

1. At Green Bay, while the 49ers and Packers struggle on Lambeau Field's frozen tundra, the temperature is also struggling to catch up with the MOS projections. At 6 pm CST, the temperature was 4° vs. the 1° GFS MOS forecast for 0z. Nevertheless, the coldest air mass in at least a number of winters, possibly back to the 1990s is now moving into the region."

[CherokeeGA]

Hills here (mid-county) make it dangerous.  In 2010 (I believe, maybe 2009), when we had the bad ice, people had to park their cars on Sixes Road because they could not make it up the steep hills into their own neighborhoods; it took a 4 lane road into a 2 lane road in a lot of places.

 

Yes, that was a terrible storm... and it was adequately forecast.  The superintendent should have closed the district that day and didn't.  I left work at 2pm (in the city) and got home at 11pm due to all the black ice on 575 and the back roads here were untreated and completely impassable, I finally abandoned my car and walked part of the way home.  Thankfully my spouse was able to get home sooner to the kids.  A fair number of the kids got stuck at school (the ASP program) into the late evening until a parent or alternate could get there.

 

That storm taught me a lesson though - if I don't agree with the superintendent's decision to open when a storm that bad is on the horizon, I'll happily override and keep them home rather than put everyone at risk again.  Who cares about perfect attendance when your kid is stuck at school at night, and your car is in a ditch, and you're walking down an icy country road in the pitch dark, trying not to slip and fall on your keister?

[GaffneyPeach]

Wind Chill Advisory for all of Upstate SC. Warning to our N and W.

We don't get a lot of those.

OBS: 38 and freakin' Pea Soup!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

FFC exaggerating a bit saying we will be in temp territory we haven't seen in 30 years. Had a high of 17 in 1996 and a low of 4 in 2003. I guess that means our high will be below 17 and low below 4 ?

[GaWx]

Did you read above, almost 30 years...

 

 Yep, I'm well aware that KATL could have its coldest in nearly 30 years (1/85 outbreak).  Regardless of the outcome, it is an incredibly cold and pretty historic airmass at minimum!

 

But here's the tricky part for KATL:

 

 If the low is closer to the Euro's ~11 F or even a bit colder...say 8-11...it will be the coldest in 11 years. If it gets down to 6 or 7 (18Z GFS is at 6), it will be the coldest in nearly 17 years. If it gets down to 5 or lower, it will be the coldest in nearly 30 years. That's one reason I'm very interested in what is happening upstream of Atlanta in relation to the GFS.

[max100]

FFC exaggerating a bit saying we will be in temp territory we haven't seen in 30 years. Had a high of 17 in 1996 and a low of 4 in 2003. I guess that means our high will be below 17 and low below 4 ?

I talked to a met there about 3 hours ago.  He said Atlanta's high will occur about 2-3am, should be around 24, he then went on to say that temps will generally be in the mid to upper teens most of the day tomorrow and continuing to fall.

[metalicwx366]

I talked to a met there about 3 hours ago. He said Atlanta's high will occur about 2-3am, should be around 24, he then went on to say that temps will generally be in the mid to upper teens most of the day tomorrow and continuing to fall.

Wrong. The high will occur at midnight of around 40 something then it will drop off from there. The cheap midnight highs is the same thing preventing Chicago from setting their lowest max temperature ever.

[Disc]

37.4 with a DP of 37. Will be interesting to see what I'm at in about 24 hours from now.

[Thrasher Fan]

good write up of the current conditions.

 

https://plus.google.com/+JamesSpann/posts/hgCyjGnowt3

[JoshM]

been 41 here for several hours, the 18z NAM said 39 at 8pm

[CherokeeGA]

good write up of the current conditions.

 

https://plus.google.com/+JamesSpann/posts/hgCyjGnowt3

 

Interesting... and his precip map puts us in the 1.5-2" snow range. I wasn't expecting that much, or even any, really; just ice because the humidity is so high nothing's drying.  o.O

[GaWx]

FFC exaggerating a bit saying we will be in temp territory we haven't seen in 30 years. Had a high of 17 in 1996 and a low of 4 in 2003. I guess that means our high will be below 17 and low below 4 ?

 

 No, they go by the KATL records. It only needs to get down to 5 to get to levels not reached in nearly 30 years.

[FLweather]

Interesting... and his precip map puts us in the 1.5-2" snow range. I wasn't expecting that much, or even any, really; just ice because the humidity is so high nothing's drying.  o.O

Just be leary about the totals. Should be taken with a grain of salt but doesn't hurt to use on who may actually see flakes or mix.

 

Samething but just a wider view.

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

 No, they go by the KATL records. It only needs to get down to 5 to get to levels not reached in nearly 30 years.

So in other words, it is 30 year territory for only one small location ( the airport).

[GaWx]

 Hot off the press, Don Sutherland just replied to my post regarding the lag of the cold in the upper Midwest, which I put in the main forecasting forum. I was asking if he thought it was due to a possible GFS cold bias or if it was due to just a delay. Here's his answer:

.

"GaWx,

 

I suspect that it is a combination of both factors. The ECMWF is not quite as extreme as it had been a few days ago. At the same time, it seems that the cold air is spreading south and eastward a little more slowly than modeled.

 

Ironically, for many eastern cities, the GFS was a bit too cold for the 1/3-4 cold shot. Albany, Burlington, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, etc., all had low temperatures above the figures forecast by the GFS.

 

IMO, the possible bias is something to watch for."

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Just be leary about the totals. Should be taken with a grain of salt but doesn't hurt to use on who may actually see flakes or mix.

 

Samething but just a wider view.

 

Ouch. It hits that infamous snow shield we are all aware of in GA. Hopefully this map is way underdone. 

[CherokeeGA]

Just be leary about the totals. Should be taken with a grain of salt but doesn't hurt to use on who may actually see flakes or mix.

 

Samething but just a wider view.

 

 

Indeed... I wasn't expecting any snow, because usually there isn't any, but I am expecting the wet pavement to flash freeze.  The ground here is soaked from the fall and early winter rains, the rain today had nowhere to go but sit on top, and the humidity is so high it's not evaporating, so there will almost certainly be ice.  Snow?  Not holding my breath, tho I'd certainly appreciate the white stuff if it happened.

[Thrasher Fan]

NWSBirmingham

Front now thru #Bham, peak gust of 45mph...will be near Gadsden & Clanton by 830pm. #bmxwx #alwx
1/5/14, 8:46 PM

[SN_Lover]

 Hot off the press, Don Sutherland just replied to my post regarding the lag of the cold in the upper Midwest, which I put in the main forecasting forum. I was asking if he thought it was due to a possible GFS cold bias or if it was due to just a delay. Here's his answer:

.

"GaWx,

 

I suspect that it is a combination of both factors. The ECMWF is not quite as extreme as it had been a few days ago. At the same time, it seems that the cold air is spreading south and eastward a little more slowly than modeled.

 

Ironically, for many eastern cities, the GFS was a bit too cold for the 1/3-4 cold shot. Albany, Burlington, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, etc., all had low temperatures above the figures forecast by the GFS.

 

IMO, the possible bias is something to watch for."

I just checked for St. Paul and temps are below model average currently. Cold air might have trouble mixing down to the station because of the heat island effect, but nothing to be concerned about. 

[WXinCanton]

Models have busted too cold to the north by a couple degrees in the midwest.  FWIW

[FLweather]

NWSBirmingham

Front now thru #Bham, peak gust of 45mph...will be near Gadsden & Clanton by 830pm. #bmxwx #alwx

1/5/14, 8:46 PM

 

Yeah its amazing how clearly its showing on the Radar. That black line is to help ones who can't pick it out. But just east of the black line.

[SN_Lover]

Models have busted too cold to the north by a couple degrees in the midwest.  FWIW

??

[Thrasher Fan]

  NWSAtlanta

Temperature drop at Huntsville: 44 to 35 in 1 hr as front passed through. Expect similar in NW GA in the next 2 hours. #gawx

1/5/14, 9:26 PM

 

[GaWx]

??

 

 I know you weren't addressing this to me but I've been referring to the GFS and nothing else. I have no idea about the model average. The two most recent runs, 12Z and 18Z today, had them at -11 at 0Z on 1/6. So, the GFS is very close now (for 0Z 1/6) but it has had to play catchup by warming things. The prior two runs had them at -13 then. The four runs from yesterday had them at -16 to -17 for 0Z today.

 

 Now check out Bismarck. even the most recent GFS, today's 18Z, had them already down to -22 at 0Z. At 2Z, they're still holding at -15. At 3Z, they're progged to be at -23.

 

 These are just things to keep in mind. The SE could still end up as cold or colder than the GFS shows. I'd love to see it frankly. Who knows? There are no certainties in the wx biz!

[dsaur]

 I know you weren't addressing this to me but I've been referring to the GFS and nothing else. I have no idea about the model average. The two most recent runs, 12Z and 18Z today, had them at -11 at 0Z on 1/6. So, the GFS is very close now (for 0Z 1/6) but it has had to play catchup by warming things. The prior two runs had them at -13 then. The four runs from yesterday had them at -16 to -17 for 0Z today.

 

 Now check out Bismarck. even the most recent GFS, today's 18Z, had them already down to -22 at 0Z. At 2Z, they're still holding at -15. At 3Z, they're progged to be at -23.

Do you reckon any bias still shows this close to a now well sensored super cold outbreak?  Now it's just a matter of high placement, terrain, and little things like lakes, mtns and trees, lol, isn't it? Would the mornings 6z still be biased for us even though the rest of the country has been well sampled?   T

[SN_Lover]

 I know you weren't addressing this to me but I've been referring to the GFS and nothing else. I have no idea about the model average. The two most recent runs, 12Z and 18Z today, had them at -11 at 0Z on 1/6. So, the GFS is very close now (for 0Z 1/6) but it has had to play catchup by warming things. The prior two runs had them at -13 then. The four runs from yesterday had them at -16 to -17 for 0Z today.

 

 Now check out Bismarck. even the most recent GFS, today's 18Z, had them already down to -22 at 0Z. At 2Z, they're still holding at -15. At 3Z, they're progged to be at -23.

 

 These are just things to keep in mind. The SE could still end up as cold or colder than the GFS shows. I'd love to see it frankly. Who knows? There are no certainties in the wx biz!

Why are you using such a low resolution model for events that are within 48 hours? The NAM was warmer than forecast for St Paul, but at the same time colder than the GFS downstream.