January 6-8 2014 arctic attack obs thread...

[downeastnc]

This attack is focused mainly on the interior SE.  Not the eastern Carolina's.

its not focused on the interior its just timing, if it was slower and not as progressive the heart of the cold would shift over the eastern parts of NC wed night and we would be colder than the interior who would then start to get return flow, but since it is so progressive the best conditions for cold will occur here during the day.

[downeastnc]

The 18Z NAM now has CLT at 20 FOR A HIGH on Tuesday!

 

That plus the wind makes it a inside day for sure lol......I got to go to work Tues morning at 6am wind chills should be 0 to -5 below here then and the heat in my truck quit last week gonna be a long ride into work......

[ASU2014]

Caldwell County, NC going with 3 hour delay. Smart move and this is for Monday. I bet Tuesday there will be hundreds of delays. Don't let your child wait for a bus too long, it's dangerous. No more than 5 minutes in the mountains from Brad Panovich. Mountain counties will likely close altogether.

[GaWx]

Can anyone tell if the cold is underperforming in the Midwest currently or if the timing is just off?  I thought the Green Bay game was supposed to kick-off around -3 and instead it's currently 5 degrees.

 

 Yes, the cold is definitely underperforming the raw GFS #'s (per MeteoStar) in the Twin Cities and Bismarck based on the post I was typing while you posted. Now we can add Green Bay to the list. This shouldn't be ignored imo.

  Any comments? Is there just a delay or is it not as cold as modeled? What are the implications for the SE US? If just a delay, then I'd expect the cold to not underperform down in the SE. But, if it isn't as cold, then a warmer model such as the Euro needs to be considered imo.

[Thrasher Fan]

More metro ATL counties added to the winter weather advisory.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA514 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014GAZ022-023-033-034-044-045-060615-/O.EXA.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.140106T0300Z-140106T1700Z//O.EXT.KFFC.WC.Y.0002.140106T1700Z-140107T1800Z/FORSYTH-HALL-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR514 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST MONDAY......WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...A DUSTING TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH SOME BRIEF SLEET.  DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED AS WELL.* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 13 BELOW.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 3 AM MONDAY THROUGH NOON  MONDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO SNOW  ACCUMULATIONS AND BLACK ICE. WITH THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND  CHILLS...FROST BITE WHICH CAN LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS  ARE NOT TAKEN.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY  MORNING.

[Thrasher Fan]

 Yes, the cold is definitely underperforming the raw GFS #'s (per MeteoStar) in the Twin Cities and Bismark based on the post I was typing while you posted. Now we can add Green Bay to the list. This shouldn't be ignored imo.

  Any comments? Is there just a delay or is it not as cold as modeled? What are the implications for the SE US? If just a delay, then I'd expect the cold to not underperform down in the SE. But, if it isn't as cold, then a warmer model such as the Euro needs to be considered imo.

 

I think your making a mountain out of a mole hill. If the temps trend warmer by 4-6° its still unlike anything we are use to or have seen in the SE in many years.

[snowlover91]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/search/getweather.php?locid=87303

 

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/search/getweather.php?locid=27516

 

You tell me??

Simply put, it's going to be slightly colder there due to timing, as downeast mentioned, and the mountains partially blocking the cold in addition to the progressive flow we are in. This blast of cold air is not just the interior SE, it is the entire area. Look at those in Florida, sure they might have a high of 32 in some areas, which is warmer than where you live, but for that area it is far below normal and very unusual. To say the cold air is just the interior SE and not the eastern Carolina's is ridiculous. Other long time members on here and mets would agree, this cold air is going to affect a large portion of the SE including GA, the Carolina's, Florida and SC as well as others. A high temp of 20F Tuesday for Greenville is very impressive for any time of the winter.

[Thrasher Fan]

!!!!!!

[Met1985]

Pretty much time to just wait and see what happens. time for nowcasting instead of model casting.

[GaWx]

I think your making a mountain out of a mole hill. If the temps trend warmer by 4-6° its still unlike anything we are use to or have seen in the SE in many years.

 

 Agreed, it will be VERY cold and a rare occurrence for the SE US, regardless. The Euro's 11 F would still make it the coldest since 2003 at KATL. Very intense cold is a given now. However, this is a forecasting forum, in which forecast details are often discussed, and this warrants discussion imo. At least JQ Public and I find it interesting enough to warrant posting about it.

 

Any other opinions about the underperformance in the Midwest and its possible implications on the SE US? Is it just a delay up there?

[Thrasher Fan]

Pretty much time to just wait and see what happens. time for nowcasting instead of model casting.

 

Should we adjust this thread title to an OBS one to keep everything here or post in the January OBS thread??

[Solak]

This forecast doesn't make sense to me... what am I missing?

 

 

• Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as zero. Blustery, with a west wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
• Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 27. Wind chill values as low as -3. West wind 8 to 13 mph.

 

Lower wind chills with a warmer temp and less wind?

[Thrasher Fan]

Murray Co. GA schools closed tomorrow.

 

More GA closings and delays starting to come in for Monday.

 

http://www.wsbtv.com/school-closings/search/

[Marion_NC_WX]

Should we adjust this thread title to an OBS one to keep everything here or post in the January OBS thread??

 

 

I think given the significance region-wide, IMO we should post obs in here. I'll change the title.

[buckeyefan1]

This attack is focused mainly on the interior SE.  Not the eastern Carolina's.

[CherokeeGA]

Good point on the buses. I wonder if how long they will delay though? A 2 hour won't do much good. These days all the kids at the bus stop near my house sit in their parent's running car with the heat blasting and don't get out until the bus rolls up. I feel ancient saying this but back in my day I didn't get that luxury. Not to go on a tangent, but kids are way too spoiled these days in all aspects.

 

In some ways, perhaps they are.  Still, here in Georgia it's been so warm for so many winters that a lot of kids don't have coats worthy of sub-zero wind chills.  They have lighter weight coats that work for 30s-50s, which is what we usually see in the mornings, and 50s-60s afternoons... so some of us will drive them tomorrow and Tuesday for that reason.  It's just not worth buying a super heavy duty coat for a growing child that might wear it 1 or 2 times before they outgrow it, and it's normally not something you can easily buy around here at the last minute after the forecast is firm.

 

Georgia is up to 2 mountain counties' schools closed tomorrow.  I expect more of the mountain counties to announce in the next few hours, although I won't be surprised if Cherokee County waits until the last minute (they often do) and decides early tomorrow morning whether to run the buses or cancel.  I have seen forecasts with everything from 2 degrees to 24 degrees as the low here tomorrow morning, because the reporting is kind of shoddy right now and I think people are confusing Tuesday's lows with Monday's.  Heck one even said the low Monday morning is supposed to be 6 degrees, but if you clicked the "hourly", it was forecast to be in the 20s.

[dsaur]

I've got pretty good rain coming down and temp is 48.  This is enough rain to wet the streets pretty good already,  Interesting night ahead.  T

[max100]

In some ways, perhaps they are.  Still, here in Georgia it's been so warm for so many winters that a lot of kids don't have coats worthy of sub-zero wind chills.  They have lighter weight coats that work for 30s-50s, which is what we usually see in the mornings, and 50s-60s afternoons... so some of us will drive them tomorrow and Tuesday for that reason.  It's just not worth buying a super heavy duty coat for a growing child that might wear it 1 or 2 times before they outgrow it, and it's normally not something you can easily buy around here at the last minute after the forecast is firm.

 

Georgia is up to 2 mountain counties' schools closed tomorrow.  I expect more of the mountain counties to announce in the next few hours, although I won't be surprised if Cherokee County waits until the last minute (they often do) and decides early tomorrow morning whether to run the buses or cancel.  I have seen forecasts with everything from 2 degrees to 24 degrees as the low here tomorrow morning, because the reporting is kind of shoddy right now and I think people are confusing Tuesday's lows with Monday's.  Heck one even said the low Monday morning is supposed to be 6 degrees, but if you clicked the "hourly", it was forecast to be in the 20s.

The high will come between midnight and 2am, then rapidly falling from then on.  Temps in Atl are now projected to hover in the middle teens tomorrow.  The 24 or so that you see is early, like I said by 2-3am.

[dsaur]

Tony,

 Actually, the coldest is expected (Tue AM) to be when it is still pretty windy (advective cooling) as opposed to during radiational cooling if that helps you to prognosticate because the extreme cold is in and out so quickly per the model consensus! This windy cold will allow KATL, itself, to be quite representative of the ATL area, especially city southward. In situations like this, KATL is actually often at or even 1-2 colder than KFFC. Nevertheless, places like Marietta and PDK would likely be ~1-2 colder than KATL.

 

Folks,

 The record low of 10 as well as the record low high of 25 are both in great danger of being broken at KATL.

I've learned to trust Kffc when it gets to  game time.  They have proven good with temps in anomoluous  cold, and frozen precip in the last few years.  Probably as they are right next door   And I hate their calls on frozen amounts,  especially as I haven't seen over an inch of anything frozen since the last spring snow and that's what they call for at Christmas, and the big Atl snow in 2010, but they saw the dry slots over us, and the drag though hit as the energy was leaving, each time.  Just on instinct I'll say I'll bust on the high side.  Might only get to 10 or 11.  Wouldn't surprise me.

[dsaur]

Good point on the buses. I wonder if how long they will delay though? A 2 hour won't do much good. These days all the kids at the bus stop near my house sit in their parent's running car with the heat blasting and don't get out until the bus rolls up. I feel ancient saying this but back in my day I didn't get that luxury. Not to go on a tangent, but kids are way too spoiled these days in all aspects.

Jon, I could go on and on   Parents, do yourselves and your kids a favor, and bundle them up and take them outside in the worst of it.  You can get two or three sets of longjohns for much less than a coat, and with two or three hoodies, and two stocking hats, with three pair of socks, and their leather shoes, they'll be fine.  One day you won't be there, and if they have never experience cold how will they deal?  I am always reminded of the poor girl on the national news after the big blow in Charleston.  She was crying the heart felt despair of the truly riven, as she described how she was without electricity and had kids, and couldn't do the dishes or the laundry.  Enough said.  The weather in the south hasn't always been like the last 30 years, and there have been many time saving inventions that have made life in distress more difficult, lol.  In the 50's we didn't have busses, or down coats, or money, we just put on everything we had and walked to school if the family didn't have a car, or dad had left at 6, and I am sure I never heard of frozen dead kids being found half way to school.  But back then we ate dirt, and experienced things, so we didn't get sick so much, and some of us learned to love the cold, and weather in general, and to deal with what comes   Just remember, as long as they are hurting they'll be fine, it's when the pain goes away..............  T

[buckeyefan1]

CAE.......We got a lake wind advisory   

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COLD AND DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FIRST
BEING ROAD CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED CONCERN AS PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY WILL BE LIQUID...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND GUSTY WINDS ROADS WILL QUICKLY DRY BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN NO CHANCE FOR ICING OF THE ROADWAYS.
NEXT IS THE WINDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 7 AM AND
RUNNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AT 7 AM. FINAL CONCERN WILL BE LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
SUBSIDING TOWARD DAYBREAK WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AROUND ZERO
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS BRINGS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
BLANKETING THE REGION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE REGION WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUNGING INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN OUTLYING LOCATIONS.

[jrips27]

Missed the wind chill warning by one county lol. Regardless, I'm excited to see what the next 48 hours will bring us. Not expecting much in the way of winter weather tonight, but we'll see what happens.

 

The wedge is very apparent right now as I'm sitting at 45 degrees. 

[max100]

Missed the wind chill warning by one county lol. Regardless, I'm excited to see what the next 48 hours will bring us. Not expecting much in the way of winter weather tonight, but we'll see what happens.

 

The wedge is very apparent right now as I'm sitting at 45 degrees. 

I think next update it will cover Metro ATL..

[Hammer]

I cannot believe that Cherokee County Schools are not closing yet... like another poster said, they will wait until the last minute.

We had friends rushing out to buy heavy coats for school tomorrow and Tuesday - I told them to stay home... school will likely be closed.  Temps are holding steady, but everything is soaked, and as soon as we get below 32, it will start to get really ugly!

[NC_hailstorm]

Forecasting a low of 6 here.

That's pretty cold but it's not getting down to 1994,1985 levels if that's it,it hit 0 and -6 here them years.1983 had a low around 0 too.

 

Wind may make it feel worse though,we'll see.

[mavenhater]

Stokes County School , NC. Two hour delay tomorrow .

[max100]

FXUS62 KFFC 060003
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
703 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM BASED ON NEW MODEL DATA AND 
TRENDS. MOST PRECIP REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS ARE RUNNING 
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST SO SLOWED DOWN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO 
SNOW. INITIAL DATA COMING IN FROM 00Z KFFC SOUNDING STILL SHOWS 
HEFTY WARM NOSE /TO 10C/ JUST BELOW 850MB SO DEPENDING ON HOW 
QUICKLY THIS GETS ERODED VS. HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE TEMPS DROP WILL 
DETERMINE TRANSITIONAL P-TYPE. SEEING THE TEMP TRENDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT...SITES DROPPING 15 DEGREES IN AN HOUR...GENERALLY THINKING 
MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...OF COURSE THEN TRANSITIONING TO 
SNOW. COULD SEE A DUSTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA 
ESPECIALLY IF THE SLEET PILES UP QUICKLY...WITH AN INCH OR PERHAPS A 
TAD MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THINKING THAT THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO 
SNOW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT EXTREME NORTHWEST /AS WELL AS WESTERN 
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT/...AND IN THE 
METRO AREA CLOSER TO 3-5AM. WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF WHATEVER HAPPENS 
WITH GENERALLY JUST SOME SLIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERING INTO 
MIDDAY MONDAY. SOME CONCERN ABOUT BLACK ICE POTENTIAL LINGERING 
MONDAY AS WELL...THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE STRONG WINDS ARE 
ABLE TO DRY THINGS OFF. DEFINITELY A DELICATE BALANCE THERE BUT 
THINK THE SAFE THING TO DO IS TO CONTINUE ADVERTISING BLACK ICE 
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME AREAS WILL NOT SEE TEMPS ABOVE 
FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...AT ATL...HAVE TEMPS 
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT 4AM IN THE MORNING AND NOT RISING ABOVE 
FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL NOON ON WEDNESDAY...OVER 60 HOURS.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM/MET...12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO LOWER 
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING...AND 18Z MAV KEEPS HOLDING ONTO THIS 
TREND. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TAD FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH BRING US 
INTO TEMPERATURE TERRITORY THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR 30 YEARS.

UPDATED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS INFORMATION...AND 
EXPANDED IT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST TO COVER A FEW MORE METRO ATLANTA 
COUNTIES. ALSO ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN 2-3 
TIERS OF COUNTIES...SOME COUNTIES MAY ONLY REACH THE -15F CRITERIA 
IN THEIR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT OVERALL THINKING THE WARNING 
ADDRESSES THE SITUATION BETTER. ALSO ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR 
EVERYONE TOMORROW.

[ASU2014]

Wouldn't delaying school make it even worse? I mean for some areas things won't freeze up until AFTER school originally starts.

[jrips27]

Interesting comment from the Birmingham NWS on their facebook page...

 

"Here's something interesting that we noted on radar over the last hour or so. In the radar loop below, notice the very thin line of reflectivity along the back edge of the rain...across Lafayette/Marshall Counties in MS. This is the actual cold front. As the loop progresses, you will notice that the front begins pushing forward into and thru the band of rain. This means that in the beginning, all the precipitation was AHEAD of the cold front. With the cold front now moving faster than the rain, o good portion of the precipitation is now located BEHIND the front. The freezing line is trailing the front a little bit and is somewhere between Oxford and Tupelo, MS. We'll be watching this freezing line as it approaches the back edge of the precip as this is where the transition to freezing rain and wintry mix will occur first."

[CherokeeGA]

I cannot believe that Cherokee County Schools are not closing yet... like another poster said, they will wait until the last minute.

We had friends rushing out to buy heavy coats for school tomorrow and Tuesday - I told them to stay home... school will likely be closed.  Temps are holding steady, but everything is soaked, and as soon as we get below 32, it will start to get really ugly!

 

 

Yes I do believe Cherokee will close.  The south end of the county is usually not so bad, but up here in the north end (we are southeast of Jasper just on the Cherokee side of the county line), in the foothills, the roads are two lane, hilly, and ice quickly.  And a lot of them don't get treated and quickly become impassable with some ice, as cars just slide down the hills or into the ditches.  It isn't safe to run the northern buses under those conditions even if the south end of the county is still OK.  The wind chill and very low temps are a different question; it's been so long since that happened here I have no idea if they're worried about the HVACs in the schools or not. 

 

We've been waffling between drizzle and soft rain here where we are for about three hours.  We hurried back from a camping trip this afternoon and it started raining on us while we were unloading the truck a bit after 4pm.  Everything is quite wet right now (and the ground was already soaked to begin with from the last few months).  Even without snow I expect I'll have a crystalline yard for a few days!