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January 6-8 2014 arctic attack obs thread...


Marion_NC_WX

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First school delay coming in.  Buncombe County schools operating on a two hour delay tomorrow(Monday) and mentioned possibility of closing if conditions warranted.  If they are already on a delay tomorrow I would imagine closing school Tuesday is very likely.  Many schools to follow suit im sure.

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First school delay coming in.  Buncombe County schools operating on a two hour delay tomorrow(Monday) and mentioned possibility of closing if conditions warranted.  If they are already on a delay tomorrow I would imagine closing school Tuesday is very likely.  Many schools to follow suit im sure.

Ya I think this is a good move by the schools especially concerning the extreme wind chill values.

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First school delay coming in.  Buncombe County schools operating on a two hour delay tomorrow(Monday) and mentioned possibility of closing if conditions warranted.  If they are already on a delay tomorrow I would imagine closing school Tuesday is very likely.  Many schools to follow suit im sure.

2-hour delay is interesting because conditions should actually be worse 2-hours later than normal start time. To me, this simply sets up the opportunity to close schools with sufficient advance notice.

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2-hour delay is interesting because conditions should actually be worse 2-hours later than normal start time. To me, this simply sets up the opportunity to close schools with sufficient advance notice.

 

Well you know how it is.  They would have already cancelled but you just can't trust meteorologists.  A joke of course, but like many jokes there is a germ of truth. Quite a few times over my career I saw schools cancel based on a forecast and then watched the superintendent catch hell when the forecasted weather didn't occur.

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Impressive.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdOBgNfCYAAj5d0.png

NC and SC waiting till 12 hours before the event.

 

gsp has updated - most at least wind chill advisory event outside the mtns. 

 

looks lke low single digits here and possible a "chance" to hit or go under 0  (might as well be -1 rather than 3 :guitar: lol)  may see a few flakes but not the best set up.  hopeful after the last arctic passage though. maybe all the moisture in the air/ground can squeeze out a few flakes.  been in the 30s all day with pretty heavy fog.

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Well, kffc has me down for a 7, but I'm just hoping I break the 12 I got 3 years ago.  Sometimes I go high down here in the brutal outbreaks, and sometimes low.  It's a crap shoot.  If the winds die down, and highs in the right place......  T

 

Tony,

 Actually, the coldest is expected (Tue AM) to be when it is still pretty windy (advective cooling) as opposed to during radiational cooling if that helps you to prognosticate because the extreme cold is in and out so quickly per the model consensus! This windy cold will allow KATL, itself, to be quite representative of the ATL area, especially city southward. In situations like this, KATL is actually often at or even 1-2 colder than KFFC. Nevertheless, places like Marietta and PDK would likely be ~1-2 colder than KATL.

 

Folks,

 The record low of 10 as well as the record low high of 25 are both in great danger of being broken at KATL.

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Tony,

Actually, the coldest is expected (Tue AM) to be when it is still pretty windy (advective cooling) as opposed to during radiational cooling if that helps you to prognosticate because the extreme cold is in and out so quickly per the model consensus! This windy cold will allow KATL, itself, to be quite representative of the ATL area, especially city southward. In situations like this, KATL is actually often at or even 1-2 colder than KFFC. Nevertheless, places like Marietta and PDK would likely be ~1-2 colder than KATL.

Folks,

The record low of 10 as well as the record low high of 28 are both in great danger of being broken at KATL.

Larry, FFC is showing a record low high of 25 for Tuesday on their afternoon disco. Wouldn't surprise me if this was a typo on their part, as I would put more faith in your data than theirs!
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Haven't heard anything yet! Still don't think local mets are talking about the real temps yet. I think if they had an idea of how cold it will be , the schools would seriously consider closings. There will be a big strain on the power grid and some pretty gusty winds, I would not want my child sitting in a school without power in these types of conditions. Or having a bus breakdown because of the extreme temps and kids stuck in that type of cold. Tomorrow is the first day back for our schools since Christmas ! Lot of chaos !

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Tony,

 Actually, the coldest is expected (Tue AM) to be when it is still pretty windy (advective cooling) as opposed to during radiational cooling if that helps you to prognosticate because the extreme cold is in and out so quickly per the model consensus! This windy cold will allow KATL, itself, to be quite representative of the ATL area, especially city southward. In situations like this, KATL is actually often at or even 1-2 colder than KFFC. Nevertheless, places like Marietta and PDK would likely be ~1-2 colder than KATL.

 

Folks,

 The record low of 10 as well as the record low high of 28 are both in great danger of being broken at KATL.

 

From xmacis2...

 

post-866-0-98299400-1388957981_thumb.png

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I spent part of the day insulating pipes in preparation. Anyone else concerned about water breaks or power failures during the cold wave?

The power outages are a concern especially with the wind and the temps dropping in the single digits and then below zero Tuesday morning. The pipes are going to be a major concern especially the people who live in mobel homes.

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Lots of classrooms these days are mobile/modular units. I'm worried that the pipes are going to burst in the one I teach in. I have a feeling that most school systems will run on a delay Tuesday morning. You can't have kids waiting at the bus stop in single digit weather with below zero wind chills. I can almost guarantee that some of the busses are not going to crank in that type of cold.

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I am concerned about power outages.  The wind with the Thursday Night front caused the power to flicker at least a dozen times.  I expect the winds with this front to be much much stronger.

The power outages are a concern especially with the wind and the temps dropping in the single digits and then below zero Tuesday morning. The pipes are going to be a major concern especially the people who live in mobel homes.

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Its hard to believe that tommorow in eastern nc its going to be 60 and tommorow night is going to be 19 talk about a temp swing..

Yeah but timing wise unless something drastic changes this isn't going to be that cold here, maybe low teens and we might break the daily low max Tues but other than that its not that big of a deal for us IMO its cold but its been colder many times. The one caveat will be the wind prolly be below zero Tues morning till around 9-10 am or so....

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Lots of classrooms these days are mobile/modular units. I'm worried that the pipes are going to burst in the one I teach in. I have a feeling that most school systems will run on a delay Tuesday morning. You can't have kids waiting at the bus stop in single digit weather with below zero wind chills. I can almost guarantee that some of the busses are not going to crank in that type of cold.

Good point on the buses. I wonder if how long they will delay though? A 2 hour won't do much good. These days all the kids at the bus stop near my house sit in their parent's running car with the heat blasting and don't get out until the bus rolls up. I feel ancient saying this but back in my day I didn't get that luxury. Not to go on a tangent, but kids are way too spoiled these days in all aspects.

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Folks,

 Based on Bismarck, ND, and the Twin Cities, MN, I'm a bit concerned about a cold bias in the GFS, which MAY mean we shouldn't completely ignore the warmer Euro. I still am leaning to the GFS verifying more closely down in Atlanta at least, especially because of those very cold 850's (~-19 C) being progged there. Btu it is far from a slam dunk imo.

 

Bismarck:

 The ten GFS runs ending with today's 6Z run all had Bismarck at between -13 and -16 for 12Z today. Today's 6Z run had them at -16, tied for the coldest of any of these ten runs! However, it ended up being a sig. warmer -8. Also, these same runs had them at between -16 and -21 at 21Z today with the last two runs (6Z and 12Z today) at -19. Well, they are only down to -13.

 The actual drop of 5 at Bismarck between 12Z and 21Z today was about what the GFS progged. Was the Arctic air actually modeled as too cold or if it just delayed about 12 hours. Any opinions?

 

 

Twin Cities:

 The GFS has been progressively warming from run to run for both 12Z and 21Z today. For 12Z today, the runs have warmed from -18 on early Friday runs to -11/-12 on today's 0Z and 6Z runs. Nevertheless, the actual was only down to -9 today at 12Z. For 21Z today, it has warmed from -12's on the Friday runs to -8/-7 on today's three runs. Nevertheless, the actual was only down to -5 at 21Z today. The actual warming of 4 between 12Z and 21Z today is actually in line with these GFS progs.

 

 Opinions? Do we have a sig. problem with the GFS cold bias? If so, does that mean the actuals will verify warmer than the GFS and closer to the Euro here in the SE? Or is the cold just delayed?

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