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January 6-8 2014 arctic attack obs thread...


Marion_NC_WX

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Really? Find that odd seeing how way down here in eastern NC we only hit 16 after a morning low of -4 on Jan 21 1985......

 

He's right.  The hi/lo for Charlotte on 1/21/85 was 33/-5, for the following day is was 24/6.  Raleigh's high was only 17 for that day and just 20 degrees out at Cape Hattaras!

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He's right.  The hi/lo for Charlotte on 1/21/85 was 33/-5, for the following day is was 24/6.  Raleigh's high was only 17 for that day and just 20 degrees out at Cape Hattaras!

 

The Feb 1899 event was more impressive with 2 consecutive days with a high of 14.  Raleigh had a high of just 10 on Feb 13.

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He's right. The hi/lo for Charlotte on 1/21/85 was 33/-5, for the following day is was 24/6. Raleigh's high was only 17 for that day and just 20 degrees out at Cape Hattaras!

Wow really? That's weird. We were 26/2 on 1/21/85 and 46/14 the next day.

Edit: One source says our low was 2 as well on 1/22.

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Wow really? That's weird. We were 26/2 on 1/21/85 and 46/14 the next day.

Edit: One source says our low was 2 as well on 1/22.

 

Sorry, I was pulling it off the daily weather maps.. their high/low maps shown are high for the day prior ending at 7pm and lows ending 7am the day of the map publication, so my days are off.  So the high for 1/21 was 24 degrees, and low of -5.  Then 40/6 for 1/22.

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Good grief.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

347 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

.WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND

CHILL WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS ZERO POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST

GEORGIA...AND AS LOW AS 5 ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST

FLORIDA.

* IMPACTS...LOW WIND CHILLS MAY RESULT IN FROST BITE...LEAD TO

HYPOTHERMIA OR POSSIBLY DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF

YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

PETS AND THE ELDERLY ARE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE COLD.

PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE THEIR SAFETY.

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Wind Chill Advisory (Winter Weather Advisory also issued for NW GA, i'm literally one county right outside of it to the east)

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

GAZ022-023-033-034-044-045-053>055-060000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WC.Y.0002.140106T1600Z-140107T1800Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-COWETA-
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...
EAST POINT...DECATUR...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY
627 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.

* TIMING...MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...FROST BITE WHICH CAN LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE
OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$

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At KATL, it hasn't gotten to 5 F (-15 C) or lower in nearly 29 years. However, during the prior 35 years, it did that for a whopping 12 airmasses! Also, it has been just under 11 years since the last single digit reading (1/24/2003), which is barely the longest such stretch on record back to 1879. The previous record was just under 10 years and 10 months (1/29/1940-11/24/1950 had nothing under 10 degrees).

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At KATL, it hasn't gotten to 5 F (-15 C) or lower in nearly 29 years. However, during the prior 35 years, it did that for a whopping 12 airmasses! Also, it has been just under 11 years since the last single digit reading (1/24/2003), which is barely the longest such stretch on record back to 1879. The previous record was just under 10 years and 10 months (1/29/1940-11/24/1950 had nothing under 10 degrees).

I think 6 is the number Atlanta hits. Going with a range of 4-8f

For Marietta I'm going with 3-7f and taking 4

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Hey, with us here at the noon hour on Sunday, I want to thank everyone who has participated in this thread. Round 1 on Friday was pretty impressive especially closer to the Apps. But less than 24 hours from now, we are going to experience something region-wide that happens once every 20 or more years...

 

 

As we get into later tonight the discussion will transition from a model analysis to a NOWCAST/obs analysis so feel free to provide your obs throughout this event...and I hope everyone is able to make it through the next 72 hours without any problems. Stay safe!

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Yes. Looking forward to those afternoon obs tomorrow as the temp goes down quick...

 

 

Hey, with us here at the noon hour on Sunday, I want to thank everyone who has participated in this thread. Round 1 on Friday was pretty impressive especially closer to the Apps. But less than 24 hours from now, we are going to experience something region-wide that happens once every 20 or more years...

 

 

As we get into later tonight the discussion will transition from a model analysis to a NOWCAST/obs analysis so feel free to provide your obs throughout this event...and I hope everyone is able to make it through the next 72 hours without any problems. Stay safe!

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CAE still waiting to see if a windchill advisory or warning is issued........fwiw criteria for an advisory is 0(f) and warning is -15(f)  ;)

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR RECORD LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT...WIND CHILLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WITH READINGS DOWN AROUND ZERO. DUE TO
THIS...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE ONCE THE COLD AIR IS IN PLACE
.

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CAE still waiting to see if a windchill advisory or warning is issued........fwiw criteria for an advisory is 0(f) and warning is -15(f)   ;)

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION

WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY

WINDS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR RECORD LOWS

IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP

OVERNIGHT...WIND CHILLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING

WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WITH READINGS DOWN AROUND ZERO. DUE TO

THIS...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THAT TIME

FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE ONCE THE COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.

 

It seems like they are having a hard time with our forecast in this area.  It is rather odd that only 40 miles west of here forecast lows are into the single digits, yet here they are forecasting low and mid teens.  If it is 8 in Augusta, it will also be 8 in Columbia and points west.

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It seems like they are having a hard time with our forecast in this area.  It is rather odd that only 40 miles west of here forecast lows are into the single digits, yet here they are forecasting low and mid teens.  If it is 8 in Augusta, it will also be 8 in Columbia and points west.

Not really odd as the mts hold off the cold for just a bit here in the midlands. The cold air sinks around the mts and this is why we don't get as cold as surrounding areas. 

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Not really odd as the mts hold off the cold for just a bit here in the midlands. The cold air sinks around the mts and this is why we don't get as cold as surrounding areas. 

 

I thought that too, but then I watch the temperatures fall all the way over to Raleigh, which is way east of the mountains.  It seems like the delay is after the cold air reaches Greenville and Charlotte, both are south and east of the mountains.  

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At KATL, it hasn't gotten to 5 F (-15 C) or lower in nearly 29 years. However, during the prior 35 years, it did that for a whopping 12 airmasses! Also, it has been just under 11 years since the last single digit reading (1/24/2003), which is barely the longest such stretch on record back to 1879. The previous record was just under 10 years and 10 months (1/29/1940-11/24/1950 had nothing under 10 degrees).

It used to get lots colder more often than this heat age we are now living in, lol.  I guess if a kid has never seen tens before, the parents best walk to school with 'em :)  Everybody needs to toughen up some.  It's just cold air.  That's what coats and long johns are for :)

 Meanwhile, it warmed up pretty good today.  I'm at 47.  I'm hoping to see a quick turn over from warm to super cold tonight.  The best I ever saw was that derecho in the 90's, and I'm hoping for a repeat tonight.  I sure hope we can break 0 this winter.  We hopefully get a cycle repeat in a week or two.  I'd love it to get all Siberia on us :)  T

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I think 6 is the number Atlanta hits. Going with a range of 4-8f

For Marietta I'm going with 3-7f and taking 4

The warm bias of the Euro at 2 meters is showing with KATL at ~11 on the 12Z Euro vs. 7 on the 12Z GFS. Actually, recent GFS runs had as low as only 2! The Euro has been stubbornly holding on to lower teens. I think the GFS will verify more closely, especially if the GFS' projected coldest 850 and 925 mb temperature of -19 C verifies. The Euro has ~-18C at 850 mb for its coldest. Does anyone think that the Euro will be closer at the surface with its 11? I'll be following places up north to get an idea of how this airmass is verifying.
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The warm bias of the Euro at 2 meters is showing with KATL at ~11 on the 12Z Euro vs. 7 on the 12Z GFS. Actually, recent GFS runs had as low as only 2! The Euro has been stubbornly holding on to lower teens. I think the GFS will verify more closely, especially if the GFS' projected coldest 850 and 925 mb temperature of -19 C verifies. The Euro has ~-18C at 850 mb for its coldest. Does anyone think that the Euro will be closer at the surface with its 11? I'll be following places up north to get an idea of how this airmass is verifying.

Well, kffc has me down for a 7, but I'm just hoping I break the 12 I got 3 years ago.  Sometimes I go high down here in the brutal outbreaks, and sometimes low.  It's a crap shoot.  If the winds die down, and highs in the right place......  T

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Well, kffc has me down for a 7, but I'm just hoping I break the 12 I got 3 years ago.  Sometimes I go high down here in the brutal outbreaks, and sometimes low.  It's a crap shoot.  If the winds die down, and highs in the right place......  T

 

I want to say I recorded a 5 or 6F in Dallas, GA back in 2010.

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