Lookout Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Lookout, The problem is that I only have 850 temp.'s with which to compare and they're much more readily available. What you say may very well be true, but I don't have other Arctic outbreak 875-900 mb temp.'s. So, I really don't know. Maybe airmasses like 1/85, 12/83, 1/82, 1/77, etc., also had more impressive 875/900 mb? Maybe not? What's the exact coldest you've seen progged for ATL at 875 and at 900? If you have that info, maybe I could dig further and see if I can find some old 875/900 data. Edit: I'd like to see what 875-900 is on the GFS as the NAM can't be trusted as well if it is colder. I'm not crazy about the NAM at all. I figured as much. It would be really helpful if we could have that data to compare to this one. But I was more or less just asking you how much more would you be impressed with sub -20c temps at heights lower than 850mb since you are the by far the most knowledgeable person here with regards to temps aloft on these cold outbreaks. At any rate, Although we don't know what the temps were at 875 to 925mb during those cold snaps, it really must be rare indeed to have those type of temps at those heights in north ga, atlanta, and the southeast in general. I understand the misgivings about the long range nam but it has been pretty consistent with everything else. The gfs was showing such temperatures at those levels as well before the 06z run. The 06z and 12z gfs came in a touch warmer but the prior few runs showed temps of -22c to -24c over a lot of north ga, including atlanta. In fact, the -20c isotherm reached down to columbus at 875mb For atlanta, The 12z gfs has 900mb coming in as the coldest level at -20.5c at hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I figured as much. It would be really helpful if we could have that data to compare to this one. But I was more or less just asking you how much more would you be impressed with sub -20c temps at heights lower than 850mb since you are the by far the most knowledgeable person here with regards to temps aloft on these cold outbreaks. At any rate, Although we don't know what the temps were at 875 to 925mb during those cold snaps, it really must be rare indeed to have those type of temps at those heights in north ga, atlanta, and the southeast in general. I understand the misgivings about the long range nam but it has been pretty consistent with everything else. The gfs was showing such temperatures at those levels as well before the 06z run. The 06z and 12z gfs came in a touch warmer but the prior few runs showed temps of -22c to -24c over a lot of north ga, including atlanta. In fact, the -20c isotherm reached down to columbus at 875mb For atlanta, The 12z gfs has 900mb coming in as the coldest level at -20.5c at hour 66 Lookout, Good news. I just checked and 925 mb data is available for ATL! However, I'd need time to research and compile it. I'd check it for some or all of these: 1/24/03, 2/3-5/96, 1/19/94, 12/22-24/89, 1/27-8/86, 1/20-1/85, 12/24-5/83, 1/10-1, 17/82, 1/9-11, 78, 1/17-9, 29/77, 1/8-9/70, 1/29-30/66, 1/24/63, 12/12-3/62, 2/17/58, 2/2/51, and 11/25/50. Let me know if you think this would be worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Want something even more impressive?. Check this sounding out, this is right there at charlotte. at hour 69 on the nam...900mb temp of -23.7! Even -20c at 950mb. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=35.3231&sounding.lon=-81.0598&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=69¶meter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=text&view=large&archive=false Cross-section. Although not exact it's fun to look at quickly run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This sounds more realistic Monday high 49, low 12, Tuesday high 32, low 17. Wednesday high 42, low 26. Thursday high 52, low 37 CAE .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.IT NOW APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDSAND CSRA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND REACH THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. SO..WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST MONDAYMORNING. A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTHE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY ANDMONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNINGWITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL EXPECTCLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILLBOTTOM OUT NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE TEENS.TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTIONAS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE20 TO 25 DEGREES (F) BELOW NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY NOT GET ABOVEFREEZING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ALONGWITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THEMIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY ASTHE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASEWEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AREINDICATING WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DOES NOT LOOKLIKE P-TYPE PROBLEMS GIVEN MODEL 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Good thing is this bitter cold only looks to last two days. Of course then it will warm up and rain a couple days later. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The NAM is just unbelievably cold. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kakh.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 anyone have any thoughts on how the models have handled the energy coming north from Florida and it interaction with our other low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 NAM is showing a wind chill of -10 at KCLT on Tuesday Morning around 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooner Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 JAN just joined BMX in issuing a Hard Freeze Warning for its entire coverage area. EDIT: forgot to add the link: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MSZ028&warncounty=MSC097&firewxzone=MSZ028&local_place1=&product1=Hard+Freeze+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Lookout, Good news. I just checked and 925 mb data is available for ATL! However, I'd need time to research and compile it. I'd check it for some or all of these: 1/24/03, 2/3-5/96, 1/19/94, 12/22-24/89, 1/27-8/86, 1/20-1/85, 12/24-5/83, 1/10-1, 17/82, 1/9-11, 78, 1/17-9, 29/77, 1/8-9/70, 1/29-30/66, 1/24/63, 12/12-3/62, 2/17/58, 2/2/51, and 11/25/50. Let me know if you think this would be worthwhile. I think it would larry. Any insight into getting a handle on these airmasses is a plus in my book. 925mb temps would really shed some light on this or some future outbreaks imo since I've heard more than once the coldest air with true arctic outbreaks often will exist below 850mb. The NAM is just unbelievably cold. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kakh.txt You mentioned temp drops a while back, and to add to it..i was just looking at some profiles over ga and al and in many areas temps go from the upper 40s or even 50 degrees to the upper 20s in 3 hours. But the most extreme I can find is around the ga/al line and back into al where it goes from around 55 to 28 in 3 hours. Hard to get any stronger caa than that around here. Of course further east over my way it's a bit slower and then quite a bit slower into sc as the cold air gets temporarily hung up by the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Raysweather is now going with -18 F for a period of time Monday evening into early Tuesday in Avery County ABOVE 5000 feet. Get ready! Also notice the rapid warm up within 48 hours back to light freezing rain and around 30 degrees. Nothing in place to anchor the arctic air in with the fast flow.... We need blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 JAN just joined BMX in issuing a Hard Freeze Warning for its entire coverage area. EDIT: forgot to add the link: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MSZ028&warncounty=MSC097&firewxzone=MSZ028&local_place1=&product1=Hard+Freeze+Warning That's a weird product to issue in the middle of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 My forecast Monday night...reminds me of the old days! This will be one of few times I wouldn't want to live in boone! Mostly clear, with a low around 6. West northwest wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think it would larry. Any insight into getting a handle on these airmasses is a plus in my book. 925mb temps would really shed some light on this or some future outbreaks imo since I've heard more than once the coldest air with true arctic outbreaks often will exist below 850mb. Lookout, OK, I've started working on it. I'm planning to have the coldest ATL sfc/925/850 for 19 very intense Arctic airmasses since 1950. I'll post it in its own thread so it won't get lost and could be used as an historic reference of sorts since it doesn't just pertain to this upcoming one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Raysweather is now going with -18 F for a period of time Monday evening into early Tuesday in Avery County ABOVE 5000 feet. Get ready! Also notice the rapid warm up within 48 hours back to light freezing rain and around 30 degrees. Nothing in place to anchor the arctic air in with the fast flow.... We need blocking Robert thinks Boone will get to at least -17 so I think Ray is going a little conservative with his +5,000 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The NAM is just unbelievably cold. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kakh.txt Statesville: http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_ksvh.txt Down to 3 with a dewpoint of -12. Subzero dewpoints for nearly the entire day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Sure is dead in here tonight, odd given the rare extreme cold headed this way in less than 24 hours. Everyone must be getting their homes and pipes ready for the artic express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lookout, OK, I've started working on it. I'm planning to have the coldest ATL sfc/925/850 for 19 very intense Arctic airmasses since 1950. I'll post it in its own thread so it won't get lost and could be used as an historic reference of sorts since it doesn't just pertain to this upcoming one. Sounds good larry. Latest nam temps for 12z tue. Looks like close to 0 in gainesville and around 3 or so for atlanta. Looks like it's inching closer 0 in he NC foothills too. Still a good bit of time to get a few degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 I've been away from the computer for a good part of today so I'm not sure if the 0z GFS is any different from recent runs...however its looking like the Apps will initially try to block the arctic plunge, temps across the Carolina Mountains/Foothills should be in the 20's to around 30's at daybreak Monday. Temps may hold steady in the Carolina foothills until about noon when the hounds are unleashed. I see the potential of a sudden crash here along the escarpment from 28 or 29 to about 15 in a matter of an hour or two. Meanwhile if you are in North Georgia or Alabama the plunge will begin earllier as the cold will slide under the base of the Apps...teens in North and NW Georgia by noon Monday. Per the GFS everyone in NC/SC should be in the 20's by dark Monday, teens and single digits Western Carolinas, Apps, North GA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The extracted nam data has KCLT at 21 for a high on Tuesday. 21! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 For reference, the coldest high we had in 1985 was 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 The extracted nam data has KCLT at 21 for a high on Tuesday. 21! What are the 850-900 temps for Charlotte at the peak of the cold? Tonight's GFS has -26 850's IMBY 6z Tuesday and a 513 thickness...that's something I may see a couple times in a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Also looking at data...my location never gets above 20 degrees between 22z Monday (5 pm) and 0z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Sure is dead in here tonight, odd given the rare extreme cold headed this way in less than 24 hours. Everyone must be getting their homes and pipes ready for the artic express I was splitting and moving firewood all day... Of course all I do is lurk around here and try to learn what I can... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 00z gfs looks the same, wind chills a tad colder though...crazy to see these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Can you post that same map with the 2m Maximum temps for Tuesday and Minimum if you want to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 00z gfs looks the same, wind chills a tad colder though...crazy to see these numbers. Ya that is extreme to the max don here. Look at the negative 40 wind chill up in WV. Wow I really don't think the locals around here grasp what we are in for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Can you post that same map with the 2m Maximum temps for Tuesday and Minimum if you want to? tuesday highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Thanks! Crazy cold. Can't wait to see how people react down here. They were complaining about how cold it was today and yesterday when it was 46 and 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Southern Snow, on 04 Jan 2014 - 11:27 PM, said: tuesday highs Lol, a high of 8 for me. Probably going to make a trip to the lake house tomorrow and make sure things are ready for the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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