January 6-8 2014 arctic attack obs thread...

[crossthread]

GaWX, question, didn't SAV have a sub30 degree "high" in the winter of 2000/2001? I'm asking because I worked in Pooler @ the time, (while comminuting to/from work in Statesboro), Where-as My "Boss" sent Me home Early from Pooler; because of SNOW FLURRIES that afternoon.. (I resided on the GSU Campus In Statesboro at the time..) He was worried about Me driving "in the snow", as He thought I didn't know how to, (even as I was from "Da North")...

[NavarreDon]

GSP is starting to sound the alarm somewhat in their disco.....

 

THE ARCTIC AIR REALLY TAKES HOLD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OF NOTE IS THE MODEL TREND WHICH CONTINUES TO BE COLDER THAN
THE FCST...NOW TO THE POINT WHERE THE FCST IS APPROACHING RECORD
COLD FOR THAT DATE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO AT RIDGETOP
LEVEL...AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEYS AND NC FOOTHILLS/WRN
PIEDMONT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND SUCH THAT WIND CHILL COULD
EASILY DROP DOWN INTO WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE MTNS AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA E OF THE MTNS. ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE TEENS OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW
FREEZING E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD BE REMARKABLE WITH NO SNOW ON
THE GROUND. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE COOLER TREND
REVERSES BEFORE TUESDAY GETS HERE.

[Lookout]

GSP is starting to sound the alarm somewhat in their disco.....

 

THE ARCTIC AIR REALLY TAKES HOLD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPS

WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL. OF NOTE IS THE MODEL TREND WHICH CONTINUES TO BE COLDER THAN

THE FCST...NOW TO THE POINT WHERE THE FCST IS APPROACHING RECORD

COLD FOR THAT DATE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO AT RIDGETOP

LEVEL...AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEYS AND NC FOOTHILLS/WRN

PIEDMONT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND SUCH THAT WIND CHILL COULD

EASILY DROP DOWN INTO WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE MTNS AND ADVISORY

CRITERIA E OF THE MTNS. ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET

OUT OF THE TEENS OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW

FREEZING E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD BE REMARKABLE WITH NO SNOW ON

THE GROUND. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE COOLER TREND

REVERSES BEFORE TUESDAY GETS HERE.

FFC is getting closer to reality I think with their temps but still too warm. They are forecasting mid to upper single digits tue am and highs in the mid to upper 20s. Probably about 5 to 8 degrees too warm on both imo...especially for highs over the western/northwestern portions of the state. (areas not affected by down slope warming)

 

 

Speaking of ffc, I'm a bit surprised at ffc being so bullish on rain changing to snow over north ga..even talking about a winter storm watch..for an inch of snow? Even though I doubt very seriously that much falls anywhere south of the mountains with the actual front...maybe some upslope snow showers could lay down a little bit. In fact, I think more snow could fall with the upslope/post frontal precip over west and northwest ga than with the actual front because ratios would be extremely high and the actual snow growth region is going to be very low with such cold temps aloft.

 

Personally, this does not look nearly as good for a changeover as the one the western half got several weeks back because the moisture looks to stay ahead of the cold air, unlike the last one where it was pretty obvious there would be a changeover and enough of one to actually cause some light accumulations for the atlanta/western ga area.  I'm not saying it won't change over for atlanta, rome, gainesville, etc but it will really be quick and I think less impressive than the last one.  Certainly not worthy of any watches. Advisory levels..sure. especially considering the chance for a flash freeze and black ice but I don't see how a watch is warranted.

 

 

 The last time Savannah had a high of 32 or less was the 22 of 12/23/89! I'm leaning against it this time as of now, but there is a chance. The longest gap between 32's since 1874 is the current 24+ years.

Larry I know you put a lot of emphasis on 850mb temps but did you see how cold the 875mb to 900mb  temps are progged to be? As impressive as -20c 850mb temps are,  it's even more impressive that the 875mb temps drop well below -20c  over north ga and would mean more significance from a historical point of view wouldn't you say?

[Stormsfury]

@crossthread - it's possible, but remember temperature highs and lows are registered midnight to 11:59 pm. Great example was KCHS just yesterday. 47 was a midnight high. Actual daytime temp was 42 at its "highest" so things can easily be skewed in that regard.

@lookout - the 875mb temp scheme is most impressive. Demonstrates very clearly the dense heavy nature of true arctic air that it would be even colder just under the "standard" 850mb to sfc relation. Amazingly cold this far south.

[burgertime]

12z NAM keeps inching that 0 degree line closer and closer to CLT on sfc temps

[Lookout]

@crossthread - it's possible, but remember temperature highs and lows are registered midnight to 11:59 pm. Great example was KCHS just yesterday. 47 was a midnight high. Actual daytime temp was 42 at its "highest" so things can easily be skewed in that regard.

@lookout - the 875mb temp scheme is most impressive. Demonstrates very clearly the dense heavy nature of true arctic air that it would be even colder just under the "standard" 850mb to sfc relation. Amazingly cold this far south.

 

Yeah, i was really excited actually to see those 875 mb temps yesterday, as well as 900 to 950mb temps...especially since we put so much emphasis on the 850mb temps..when in fact it will be get even colder than the coldest 850mb temps.  I wonder how cold temps at 875 to 950mb were on our coldest out breaks in the past. It's hard to imagine it being much colder. This airmass is just about as cold as it can even get this far south I would think.

 

12z NAM keeps inching that 0 degree line closer and closer to CLT on sfc temps

Not surprising. I have to wonder if the models are taking into account the snow cover that will exist over the Tn valley/mid ms valley. It's one thing to have this type of set up to begin with but to have it moving over a large area of snow cover upstream of us is another.  Just imagine if we actually had snow on the ground here in ga and the carolinas.

 

I don't know about others but I'm saving model forecast maps since this is one of those outbreaks that  we will probably  remember for years and it's so rare. It will be very interesting to see how well the models do for an outbreak like this and It will be a great case study for future outbreaks.

[Stormsfury]

after i get done from work today, i might try to pull up some info on the 1985 outbreak just as a comparison if the data is available.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looking at some of the numerical data, its astounding just how severe the cold will be for southern standards...

A lot of times us cold lovers brag about keeping temps below freezing and stuff like that...well, I was taking a peek and Tri Cities in TN per the 0z GFS stays below ZERO for a total of 16 hours starting 22-23z Monday (6 pm roughly).

 

 

Asheville stays below ZERO for about 8 hours starting at 0z Tuesday...

 

 

So if that data verified, those areas could go below zero during the supper hour Monday, not midnight, not daybreak...but supper time!

[NCSNOW]

Even if your not a NFL fan, Sunday will be a blast. Yea the Green Bay v/s 49ers  4 p.m. game will have air temps falling from -4 to -10 throughout the game with wind chills -30. But the 1st game Sunday in Cincy will see mixed precip at kickoff changing to heavy snow and temps dropping 10-15 degrees down into the teens throughout the game.

[Cold Rain]

The -20 850 line is definitely farther east on this run of the GFS than the last few. Not sure wha that means for surfaces temps yet.

[BullCityWx]

KCLT goes from 43 at 12z on Monday to 19 at 0z on Monday. Impressive.

[Met1985]

Looking at some of the numerical data, its astounding just how severe the cold will be for southern standards...

A lot of times us cold lovers brag about keeping temps below freezing and stuff like that...well, I was taking a peek and Tri Cities in TN per the 0z GFS stays below ZERO for a total of 16 hours starting 22-23z Monday (6 pm roughly).

 

 

Asheville stays below ZERO for about 8 hours starting at 0z Tuesday...

 

 

So if that data verified, those areas could go below zero during the supper hour Monday, not midnight, not daybreak...but supper time!

that is very impressive. Not really looking forward to the extended long duration of below zero here in the mountains.

[Met1985]

KCLT goes from 43 at 12z on Monday to 19 at 0z on Monday. Impressive.

Ya for them wow.

[mackerel_sky]

They have issued WSW for northern GA already ? They must know something?!! R.I.P weathermaestro pt. duh

[HWY316wx]

Pretty interesting read out of the FFC in their AFD:

 

.FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS......WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LIKELY OVER EXTREME
NORTH GEORGIA...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET START TO THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH RIDGING
THOUGH EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S WITH EVEN A FEW TEENS NOTED AS WELL. BEGINNING TO
SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF RETURNING MOISTURE IN LATEST FOG CHANNEL IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH INFLUX OF STRATO CU COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY CURB TEMPERATURE
DROP FOR MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENT FLOW WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID
CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT AGAIN IMPACTS AS FAR AS SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. DID GO ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AS MODEL PLANE FIELDS OF MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION ARE
FASTER IN PROVIDING CLOUD COVER TODAY THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.

STARTS TO GET A LITTLE DICEY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST AND CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY PERSISTENT
RIDGE BRINGS CIGS DOWN AND ACTUALLY GENERATES SOME DRIZZLE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL HAVE
FALLEN TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RISING OF TEMPS AS PRECIP
APPROACHES...FEEL THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS STILL RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING SO HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE GRIDS.
NOT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR AN ADVISORY BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLICK ROADS.

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A VERY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH MOST
OF THE IMPACT BEING DONE WITH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL BE A VERY INTERESTING 12 HOUR PERIOD THOUGH AS COLD
AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE...CHANGING PRECIP TO A MIXTURE
INITIALLY BUT VERY QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF A ROME
TO CLEVELAND LINE. STILL A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS
LOCATION WITH TOP DOWN METHOD EVEN INDICATING A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIP ENDS FROM LAGRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA.
AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH AS I AM WORRIED HOW RAPIDLY PRECIP PULLS
OUT. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AND WPC
GUIDANCE BUT AM LEANING ON THE LOW END AT THIS POINT GIVEN LIMITED
WRAP AROUND INITIALLY. BIGGER ISSUE FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP RELATIVE TO PRECIP ENDING WHICH COULD
CREATE A BLACK ICE SITUATION AT THE WORST TIME...NAMELY MORNING
RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC. WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUE EVEN BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...MAYBE
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

[Lookout]

KCLT goes from 43 at 12z on Monday to 19 at 0z on Monday. Impressive.

Temp drops of 20 degrees in about 6 hours or so expected here.

 

 

 

But check this out...holy cold wind batman! We know the winds will be substained at 15 to 20mph but gfs shows a huge area of 30mph gusts 0 tue..with temps in the teens of course. (bottom image)  But the Gfs is also showing winds possibly still gusting to 30mph  tuesday morning across north ga while we are between 0 and 5. Wow.

[Jon]

Pretty interesting read out of the FFC in their AFD:

 

.FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST

MOUNTAINS......WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LIKELY OVER EXTREME

NORTH GEORGIA...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

QUIET START TO THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG HIGH

PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH RIDGING

THOUGH EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR DECENT

RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE

LOWER TO MID 20S WITH EVEN A FEW TEENS NOTED AS WELL. BEGINNING TO

SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF RETURNING MOISTURE IN LATEST FOG CHANNEL IR

SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH INFLUX OF STRATO CU COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC

AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY CURB TEMPERATURE

DROP FOR MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE

MINIMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH THIS

AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENT FLOW WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID

CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT AGAIN IMPACTS AS FAR AS SENSIBLE

WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. DID GO ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR

MOST LOCATIONS AS MODEL PLANE FIELDS OF MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION ARE

FASTER IN PROVIDING CLOUD COVER TODAY THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.

STARTS TO GET A LITTLE DICEY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS

FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST AND CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY PERSISTENT

RIDGE BRINGS CIGS DOWN AND ACTUALLY GENERATES SOME DRIZZLE FOR THE

EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL HAVE

FALLEN TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RISING OF TEMPS AS PRECIP

APPROACHES...FEEL THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS STILL RIGHT AROUND

FREEZING SO HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE GRIDS.

NOT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR AN ADVISORY BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR

POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLICK ROADS.

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE NEXT

SYSTEM WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES

BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A VERY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH MOST

OF THE IMPACT BEING DONE WITH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A 12 HOUR

PERIOD. WILL BE A VERY INTERESTING 12 HOUR PERIOD THOUGH AS COLD

AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE...CHANGING PRECIP TO A MIXTURE

INITIALLY BUT VERY QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF A ROME

TO CLEVELAND LINE. STILL A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS

LOCATION WITH TOP DOWN METHOD EVEN INDICATING A PERIOD OF FREEZING

RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIP ENDS FROM LAGRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA.

AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH AS I AM WORRIED HOW RAPIDLY PRECIP PULLS

OUT. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AND WPC

GUIDANCE BUT AM LEANING ON THE LOW END AT THIS POINT GIVEN LIMITED

WRAP AROUND INITIALLY. BIGGER ISSUE FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE HOW

QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP RELATIVE TO PRECIP ENDING WHICH COULD

CREATE A BLACK ICE SITUATION AT THE WORST TIME...NAMELY MORNING

RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC. WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS

POINT BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUE EVEN BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...MAYBE

WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

There is a separate thread for this possible event in case you want to discuss!

[HWY316wx]

Up goes the watch:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1137 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-050200-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.140106T0000Z-140106T1700Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE
1137 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...ROME TO CANTON TO CLEVELAND AND NORTH.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND POSSIBLY SLEET SUNDAY
EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1/2 INCH TO 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND BLACK ICE. GUSTY WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES.

* WINDS...INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[HWY316wx]

There is a separate thread for this possible event in case you want to discuss!

 

Thanks for the road map...

 

I started to put it in the ZR thread but it covers the whole "artic attack" for the weekend so I put it here.

[Lookout]

Temp drops of 20 degrees in about 6 hours or so expected here.

 

 

 

But check this out...holy cold wind batman! We know the winds will be substained at 15 to 20mph but gfs shows a huge area of 30mph gusts 0 tue..with temps in the teens of course. (bottom image)  But the Gfs is also showing winds possibly still gusting to 30mph  tuesday morning across north ga while we are between 0 and 5. Wow.

It's windchill forecast is about the same but that is using the substained wind it appears. Using the gusts instead gives you wind chills between -20 and -25F, depending on the exact temperature.

 

Using the old wind chill index it would be between -40F and -47F in those gusts!

 

Interesting that the wind is so much lighter across the carolinas while north ga, and in particular atlanta, is ground zero for the highest winds.

[metalicwx366]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

437 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...ARCTIC COLD TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT

WEEK...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST SEVERAL

YEARS WILL PLUNGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR OVER INLAND LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S LIKELY. EVEN THE

NORMALLY WARMER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE SPARED FROM THIS

ARCTIC INTRUSION...WITH A FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY

AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BEACHES MONDAY

NIGHT COULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S...PRODUCING HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS.

WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS...WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES

WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES

TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR

THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES...ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS CONCERNING

THIS UPCOMING PERIOD OF EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER. IN ADDITION...THIS

IS GOOD TIME TO REVIEW ACTION FOR PROTECTING TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE

VEGETATION AND PROTECT EXPOSED PIPES FROM FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

[WXinCanton]

WSW for me, kinda surprised with that.  Those winds will feel like needles with those temps.  I won't be shocked to see some schools delay or close come early Monday afternoon

[nchighcountrywx]

12z 04JAN14 ECMWF Hires is rolling in:

 

Coldest NC Surface 10m Temperatures through Tuesday 7am

 

NC Mountains:  -10.7f

Asheville: +3f

Hickory: +6f

Charlotte: +14f

Greensboro: +10f

Raleigh: +16f

Wilmington: +22f

 

850s go to:

 

Edit

 

Updated for Coldest 850mb Temperature Panel (Tue 06z07JAN14 Panel)

NC Mountains: -25c

Hickory: -21c

Charlotte: -19c

 

Based on Tue12z07JAN14 Panel

NC Mountains: -25c

Charlotte: -16c

 

 

Highs During Day on Tuesday ending 0z Wed 08JAN14

 

NC Mountains:  +9.7f  (seems too high)

Asheville: +28f

Hickory: +27f

Charlotte: +29f

Greensboro: +26f

Raleigh: +27f

Wilmington: +31f

 

Also, taken literally from the model, dusting of snow north and west of a line from the into the Foothills around Hickory ENE of there towards Greensboro.

 

Edit

 

As of the 12z Models this morning, as of this time, the NAM is definitely the coldest model for next Tuesday

[NCSNOW]

Thinking Wed a.m. will be the coldest/lowest surface temps for Greensboro/Raleigh east. No wind Tuesday night/Wed a.m.

 

Cold surface temps are one thing that I can handle, but wind driven cold is another animal. I'd rather stew at 10 degrees and no wind, then mid 20's/30's with wind if outside. 

[BullCityWx]

850's actually drop to just shy of -20 at CLT(-19.3)

[SN_Lover]

WOW...... 4F according to the latest NAM for CLT. 

 

[GaWx]

GaWX, question, didn't SAV have a sub30 degree "high" in the winter of 2000/2001? I'm asking because I worked in Pooler @ the time, (while comminuting to/from work in Statesboro), Where-as My "Boss" sent Me home Early from Pooler; because of SNOW FLURRIES that afternoon.. (I resided on the GSU Campus In Statesboro at the time..) He was worried about Me driving "in the snow", as He thought I didn't know how to, (even as I was from "Da North")...

 

 No. The coldest high for the winter of 00-01 was 38 on 12/30/00. Now, regarding the daytime high when looking at 3 hourlies, the coldest was no colder than 36 (that could have been both on 12/30 and on 1/9). On 1/9/01, the high of 40 was apparently near midnight. During the afternoon, there were several hours of snow flurries with the temp. 35-36. That was the only day with any S. So, that very likely was the day to which you refer.

[Lookout]

850's actually drop to just shy of -20 at CLT(-19.3)

Want something even more impressive?. Check this sounding out, this is right there at charlotte. at hour 69 on the nam...900mb temp of -23.7! Even -20c at 950mb.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=35.3231&sounding.lon=-81.0598&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=69&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=text&view=large&archive=false

[GaWx]

 

Larry I know you put a lot of emphasis on 850mb temps but did you see how cold the 875mb to 900mb  temps are progged to be? As impressive as -20c 850mb temps are,  it's even more impressive that the 875mb temps drop well below -20c  over north ga and would mean more significance from a historical point of view wouldn't you say?

 

Lookout,

 The problem is that I only have 850 temp.'s with which to compare and they're much more readily available. What you say may very well be true, but I don't have other Arctic outbreak 875-900 mb temp.'s. So, I really don't know. Maybe airmasses like 2/96, 1/85, 12/83, 1/82, 1/77, etc., also had more impressive 875/900 mb? Maybe not? What's the exact coldest you've seen progged for ATL at 850, 875 and at 900? If you have that info, maybe I could dig further and see if I can find some old 875/900 data.

 

 Edit: I'd like to see what 850-900 is on the GFS as the NAM can't be trusted as well if it is colder. I'm not crazy about the NAM at all.

[jburns]

Even if your not a NFL fan, Sunday will be a blast. Yea the Green Bay v/s 49ers  4 p.m. game will have air temps falling from -4 to -10 throughout the game with wind chills -30. But the 1st game Sunday in Cincy will see mixed precip at kickoff changing to heavy snow and temps dropping 10-15 degrees down into the teens throughout the game.

 

You'll enjoy reading this.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grb&storyid=99351&source=0