WeatherNC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 MHX lowered the high on Tuesday for PGV to 28, if MOS has any handle, we will be hard pressed to reach 25, setting up show for the record min for a high temp here in many, many years, Jan 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I just can't see any scenario where anyone outside of the mountains gets measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Lower single digits showing up for many NC lower elevation locations on the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Atlanta has a big 0 now on the latest run, but not a word from FFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Lower single digits showing up for many NC lower elevation locations on the 0z NAMA thing to note also is that actual temps have been several degrees colder than forecast. An example is here. The 0z NAM doesn't even show it getting at or below freezing here tonight, and yet we are already 32 and going for a low of 27. I think others also noticed that today with their temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Atlanta has a big 0 now on the latest run, but not a word from FFC.They can't change the forecast with every run that comes out. They are playing it safe. As the day gets closer, the forecast temps will start to lower. Our NWS is doing the same here. We have a forecast high in the 40s yet the models don't show us getting above freezing for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Record lows for Jan 7 for the following locations in central NC: RDU: 15 1988GSO: 14 1988FAY: 13 1959 I'd be surprised if the RDU and GSO records don't fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Charlotte's records for January 7. Minimum Low - 12º 1884 Minimum High - 24º 1988 (12.1" of snow fell on this date) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 They can't change the forecast with every run that comes out. They are playing it safe. As the day gets closer, the forecast temps will start to lower. Our NWS is doing the same here. We have a forecast high in the 40s yet the models don't show us getting above freezing for a high. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 One thing i learned while researching for winter forecasts several years ago, is that true arctic outbreaks can be modeled very poorly in the extended range due to the very shallow nature of the airmass. I think this is a classic case/example of that. In some ways it's similar to mis-modeled CAD situations. The models are much better than they were 10 years ago, but they still aren't perfect and these recent trends are an example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 They can't change the forecast with every run that comes out. They are playing it safe. As the day gets closer, the forecast temps will start to lower. Our NWS is doing the same here. We have a forecast high in the 40s yet the models don't show us getting above freezing for a high. True, they've been slashing the highs/lows for Mon and Tue considerably from where it was earlier in the week. Looks like most of the local mets here and in addition to TWC is coming more in line with the models. I know and no offense, but you live at about 50 feet above sea level near a huge swamp and are close to 300 miles SE of Atlanta it is a different world climate wise here. They are being ULTRA conservative especially when it is staring them flat in the face. I currently have 19 at my house actually colder than last night at this time. To be fair, it's not like other local and national weather outlets haven't been doing the same. Heck most local mets didn't start adding single digit lows to their forecast until today. My guess is by tomorrow FFC will have done the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 They are talking about it. My forecast low here monday night is 6. I am sure it will be closer to 0 though... They can't change the forecast with every run that comes out. They are playing it safe. As the day gets closer, the forecast temps will start to lower. Our NWS is doing the same here. We have a forecast high in the 40s yet the models don't show us getting above freezing for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Charlotte's records for January 7. Minimum Low - 12º 1884 Minimum High - 24º 1988 (12.1" of snow fell on this date) I'd rather like to have another 1/7/88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z GFS coming in with more precip then the 00z NAM but both look to be drier runs to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 gfs not quite as cold as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z GFS coming in with more precip then the 00z NAM but both look to be drier runs to me.Does that kink in the isobars over N and S Carolina mean anything? Just looks funky ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraseltonGAWX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Cool graphic from FFC home page, but what's wrong with this chart? I mean, if it was 0 at KATL on 1/11/1982, can't you assume it was also 1 degree at some point on that date? Same thing with Columbus and 5 degrees. Just bugs me. Regardless, cool data for us cold weather lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Cool graphic from FFC home page, but what's wrong with this chart? I mean, if it was 0 at KATL on 1/11/1982, can't you assume it was also 1 degree at some point on that date? Same thing with Columbus and 5 degrees. Just bugs me. Regardless, cool data for us cold weather lovers. image.jpg Their forecast temps are at least 10 degrees too warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Does that kink in the isobars over N and S Carolina mean anything? Just looks funky ? Yeah. Look back a couple post that is a secondary lp forming most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Does that kink in the isobars over N and S Carolina mean anything? Just looks funky ? I am not positive mackerel but it looks to either be some interaction with the piece of energy that is already off shore or the development of a costal low even though the rest of run does not support a ton of development. Hopefully someone with a little more knowledge then me can explain whats happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Cool graphic from FFC home page, but what's wrong with this chart? I mean, if it was 0 at KATL on 1/11/1982, can't you assume it was also 1 degree at some point on that date? Same thing with Columbus and 5 degrees. Just bugs me. Regardless, cool data for us cold weather lovers. image.jpg That's a cool graphic. i think the last true arctic shot i can remember was in jan 2003 following the super clipper. hickory had 10 inches of snow and we got down to 6 degrees on my thermometer that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Forecast high on Tuesday 15 miles west of me in AL is only 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 max100, on 03 Jan 2014 - 11:08 PM, said:max100, on 03 Jan 2014 - 11:08 PM, said:max100, on 03 Jan 2014 - 11:08 PM, said:Their forecast temps are at least 10 degrees too warm.... You sure do have an obsession about their temps. Give it a rest. I'm tired of reading about it. Anyway, 0z GFS still gets us below 0 up this way.. Haven't had temps like that in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Here is the minimum temperatures on the GFS computer model. Many areas in the single digits or below zero Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Our local ch 4 met seems pretty adamant about snow in Greenville on Sun night. He said flurries or showers before ending and dusting to 1/2 inch N of 85 . I hope he's right, but frontal passage usually won't get it done here! He also had our lowest low of 11 Tuesday morning and the lowest high of 32 on Tuesday . He has a " snow meter " rating of 7 out of 10 for seeing snow here Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Can you post the same image zoomed in more to the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Hopefully we can get some snow here in Greenville,SC. I would like to see at least one decent snowstorm here(2-4 inches). Maybe we can get one in Feb. or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Low temperatures Tuesday Morning, according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well, I've got my wsw wind, but only .04 in precip when it's cold enough, lol. That'll be black ice so I won't even get to see it unless I catch it falling Goofy needs to find more precip. And I guess the models will find a short wave to grow into something, and we'll be waiting for it as the cold erodes Never easy here. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The last time Savannah had a high of 32 or less was the 22 of 12/23/89! I'm leaning against it this time as of now, but there is a chance. The longest gap between 32's since 1874 is the current 24+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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