January 6-8 2014 arctic attack obs thread...

[BullCityWx]

I agree but I was also referring to our area in upstate, looks like around .10 which would be a inch if 10:1 but as you stated even .10 at a higher rate would be more even for us

Nothing has changed. Nobody outside of the mountains will see any substantial snow out of this. You can't rule out a single flake or two, I guess.

Date: 3 day AVN valid 12Z MON  6 JAN 14
Station: KCEU
Latitude:   34.67
Longitude: -82.89
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    78                                                                 
SFC  967   349  -3.1  -5.2  85  2.1  -3.8 290  12 272.7 273.1 271.1 280.0  2.67
  2  950   486  -3.1  -7.1  74  4.0  -4.4 306  20 274.0 274.4 271.5 280.6  2.36
  3  900   912  -4.5 -10.1  65  5.7  -6.2 322  24 276.9 277.2 272.6 282.5  1.96
  4  850  1363  -3.2 -14.4  42 11.2  -6.5 297  27 282.8 283.1 275.2 287.2  1.48
  5  800  1842  -4.0 -19.5  29 15.5  -8.1 273  34 286.8 287.0 276.6 290.0  1.02
  6  750  2348  -6.7 -27.8  17 21.1 -11.0 255  44 289.3 289.4 277.2 291.0  0.52
  7  700  2884  -9.2 -37.3   8 28.1 -13.6 243  58 292.3 292.3 278.2 293.0  0.22
  8  650  3454 -11.0 -38.7   8 27.7 -15.2 232  75 296.5 296.5 280.1 297.2  0.21
  9  600  4068 -11.9 -40.3   7 28.3 -16.2 226  94 302.3 302.4 282.6 303.0  0.19
 10  550  4733 -12.0 -41.7   6 29.7 -16.6 227 112 309.8 309.8 285.5 310.4  0.18
 11  500  5459 -14.1 -44.2   6 30.1 -18.4 224 125 315.9 315.9 287.6 316.4  0.15
 12  450  6250 -19.6 -49.9   5 30.3 -22.9 225 126 318.6 318.6 288.4 319.0  0.09
 13  400  7114 -25.9 -54.9   5 29.0 -28.2 229 130 321.3 321.3 289.2 321.5  0.06
 14  350  8067 -32.5 -54.5   9 22.0 -34.0 232 138 324.9 324.9 290.3 325.2  0.07
 15  300  9136 -39.9 -49.8  34  9.9 -40.5 235 148 329.1 329.2 291.6 329.7  0.13
 16  250 10360 -47.6 -53.5  51  5.9 -47.9 240 155 335.3 335.3 293.2 335.7  0.10
 17  200 11805 -55.7 -61.2  51  5.4 -55.9 243 151 344.5 344.5 295.4 344.7  0.05
 18  150 13615 -60.1 -70.4  25 10.3 -60.2 236 126 366.6 366.6 299.9 366.7  0.02
 19  100 16123 -63.5 -79.4  10 15.9 -63.7 240  98 405.1 405.1 305.9 405.1  0.01
TRP                                             0

[Met1985]

 

Coldest Wind Chill panel

 

 

Again wow looks like most of the mountains have wind chills of negative 20 or below. This could end up being a very dangerous period in a large swath of the SE.

[WXinCanton]

Nothing has changed. Nobody outside of the mountains will see any substantial snow out of this. You can't rule out a single flake or two, I guess.

 

Date: 3 day AVN valid 12Z MON  6 JAN 14
Station: KCEU
Latitude:   34.67
Longitude: -82.89
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    78                                                                 
SFC  967   349  -3.1  -5.2  85  2.1  -3.8 290  12 272.7 273.1 271.1 280.0  2.67
  2  950   486  -3.1  -7.1  74  4.0  -4.4 306  20 274.0 274.4 271.5 280.6  2.36
  3  900   912  -4.5 -10.1  65  5.7  -6.2 322  24 276.9 277.2 272.6 282.5  1.96
  4  850  1363  -3.2 -14.4  42 11.2  -6.5 297  27 282.8 283.1 275.2 287.2  1.48
  5  800  1842  -4.0 -19.5  29 15.5  -8.1 273  34 286.8 287.0 276.6 290.0  1.02
  6  750  2348  -6.7 -27.8  17 21.1 -11.0 255  44 289.3 289.4 277.2 291.0  0.52
  7  700  2884  -9.2 -37.3   8 28.1 -13.6 243  58 292.3 292.3 278.2 293.0  0.22
  8  650  3454 -11.0 -38.7   8 27.7 -15.2 232  75 296.5 296.5 280.1 297.2  0.21
  9  600  4068 -11.9 -40.3   7 28.3 -16.2 226  94 302.3 302.4 282.6 303.0  0.19
 10  550  4733 -12.0 -41.7   6 29.7 -16.6 227 112 309.8 309.8 285.5 310.4  0.18
 11  500  5459 -14.1 -44.2   6 30.1 -18.4 224 125 315.9 315.9 287.6 316.4  0.15
 12  450  6250 -19.6 -49.9   5 30.3 -22.9 225 126 318.6 318.6 288.4 319.0  0.09
 13  400  7114 -25.9 -54.9   5 29.0 -28.2 229 130 321.3 321.3 289.2 321.5  0.06
 14  350  8067 -32.5 -54.5   9 22.0 -34.0 232 138 324.9 324.9 290.3 325.2  0.07
 15  300  9136 -39.9 -49.8  34  9.9 -40.5 235 148 329.1 329.2 291.6 329.7  0.13
 16  250 10360 -47.6 -53.5  51  5.9 -47.9 240 155 335.3 335.3 293.2 335.7  0.10
 17  200 11805 -55.7 -61.2  51  5.4 -55.9 243 151 344.5 344.5 295.4 344.7  0.05
 18  150 13615 -60.1 -70.4  25 10.3 -60.2 236 126 366.6 366.6 299.9 366.7  0.02
 19  100 16123 -63.5 -79.4  10 15.9 -63.7 240  98 405.1 405.1 305.9 405.1  0.01
TRP                                             0

I wouldnt be so quick to say that.  I think someone outside the mountains could very well pick up an inch or two very easily.  Like EmersonGA said ala 2003.  

[mackerel_sky]

Again wow looks like most of the mountains have wind chills of negative 20 or below. This could end up being a very dangerous period in a large swath of the SE.

Anybody know why the "warm" temps keep showing on the NC/SC border area? I want to feel the below 0 wind chills too!

[buckeyefan1]

CAE isn't budging on their temps for next week....Monday's high is 49, Tuesday 39, Wednesday 44, Thursday 48

 

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE AT THIS TIME. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO
30S...ABOVE FREEZING AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD DRY AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN EARNEST
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES...HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

[griteater]

Anybody know why the "warm" temps keep showing on the NC/SC border area? I want to feel the below 0 wind chills too!

As the arctic air crosses the mountains out of the NW, downsloping is maximized in that area due to the concentration of high mountains in SW NC - the Smokies and Balsams...I believe that's the main reason for the delayed cooling

[BullCityWx]

I wouldnt be so quick to say that. I think someone outside the mountains could very well pick up an inch or two very easily. Like EmersonGA said ala 2003.

Like 1/23/03? There's not the players on the field for that.

[LithiaWx]

Prediction based on model output. KMGE will hit 10 or lower with this next shot. 12 z GFS spurts out a low of 2 for me. It has consistently shown coldest in a decade or two cold and I buy it.

[Lookout]

Again wow looks like most of the mountains have wind chills of negative 20 or below. This could end up being a very dangerous period in a large swath of the SE.

 

It's pretty rare for it to be cold enough to actually pose a real danger to people here in the southeast but next week is one of those times. With wind chills that low, exposed skin could get frost bite within just a few minutes in the mountains and as little as a half hour  outside of them.  I really feel bad for the homeless who really are going to be in a bad situation if they can't find proper shelter. It's also going to be pretty rough on any pets too. 

 

Of course people up north are probably thinking it's been a lot colder for weeks than what we will be so what's the big deal but people (and pets for that matter) down here just aren't used to this type of cold.

 

 

I wouldnt be so quick to say that.  I think someone outside the mountains could very well pick up an inch or two very easily.  Like EmersonGA said ala 2003.  

 

jeremy's right, it's highly unlikely anyone besides the usual post frontal upslope areas will get anything except maybe a token flurry if they are lucky. Moisture looks decent enough (combined with the very cold temps in the low levels) for possibly some light accumulation in the northwest half of Ga/mountains, northern alabama, etc. Maybe even a few snow showers breaking containment over the nc and sc foothills... but downslope drying will be very strong down wind from the mountains. So folks shouldn't get their hopes up along and southeast of 85.

CAE isn't budging on their temps for next week....Monday's high is 49, Tuesday 39, Wednesday 44, Thursday 48

 

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE

SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT

RANGE AT THIS TIME. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO

30S...ABOVE FREEZING AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID

50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT STRONG

COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE

UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD

OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY

AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD DRY AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN EARNEST

UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER

TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST

TUESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. HIGHS

TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES...HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY

BE IN THE UPPER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY

NIGHT ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL

INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY WARMING

SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL

CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS HIGH

PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY

AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE

TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

yeah, it's one thing to be conservative at this time range but it's another to be so much so you look really dumb since it's pretty much a lock that temps will be much colder than that for central sc and every where else.

[EmersonGA]

Like 1/23/03? There's not the players on the field for that.

I don't remember the exact setup but I'm not sure my snow came from the system.  It came in with the arctic front moving almost north to south and died just past Marietta.  It started as rain for just a few minutes and quickly switched to snow to leave about 1/4" of ice and 3/4" of snow on top covering everything.  The temperature hung in the upper teens all day.  I think being NW of I-85 helps.

[Lookout]

I don't remember the exact setup but I'm not sure my snow came from the system.  It came in with the arctic front moving almost north to south and died just past Marietta.  It started as rain for just a few minutes and quickly switched to snow to leave about 1/4" of ice and 3/4" of snow on top covering everything.  The temperature hung in the upper teens all day.  I think being NW of I-85 helps.

I have looked many many times trying to find the date of one of my favorite snows of all time but have never been able to find it. There was a major arctic front, with temps in the teens during the afternoon in west ga and low 30s here in the afternoon. The forecast was for some flurries/isolated snow showers in west ga and flurries or nothing here. I remember being frustrated because west ga/atlanta were seeing light snow with a dusting to half inch or so while nothing was happening here.

 

I also was frustrated because it was so much colder in west ga than here..I really was wanting to see teens in the afternoon , which I had never experienced before. Wind chills to the west were really cold but, again, not here.  The winds were very light, even though the front had passed, winds were howling in west ga, and the forecast was for 20 or 30mph gusts. 

 

Well it started snowing here during the late afternoon on a saturday and ended up snowing all night and most of the morning on sunday, with temps in the mid to upper 20s. It stopped around noon but had snowed non stop for around 18 hours iirc...I ended up getting a little bit over 4 inches and it was one of the prettiest snow falls I've ever seen. The flakes were huge and with the light winds, it was just awesome to watch. I think the accumulations extended from athens or so northeast toward anderson...it was a rather narrow corridor IIRC but since I've never been able to nail down the date of it happening,  I can't be sure. It's bad I can't even say which decade it was in lol. I think it was in the mid to late 90s though. I know I had the internet at the time.

 

And of course the best part was, it was totally unexpected. None of the models picked up on it and of course ffc and gsp didn't either. Although I had a hell of a lot more than that a few years ago, it still remains to this day one of my favorite snows ever.

[NCsandhills]

I am curious as to what is keeping it so warm in the Sandhills region of NC? I just find it so strange that Macon and Atl are going to be colder than Fayetteville. It is pretty frustrating though, TWC has our high Tuesday at 35 and a low of 18. Cold, but not record breaking or even all that uncommon.

 

If this belonged in banter I am sorry please letme know!!

[WXinCanton]

I don't remember the exact setup but I'm not sure my snow came from the system.  It came in with the arctic front moving almost north to south and died just past Marietta.  It started as rain for just a few minutes and quickly switched to snow to leave about 1/4" of ice and 3/4" of snow on top covering everything.  The temperature hung in the upper teens all day.  I think being NW of I-85 helps.

 

Yeah, it was mess and not that much QPF.  It was a post frontal band definitely not the 01/23/03 system,  Just looked at that one. It was a mess it was like everything flash froze.  Tell Queencity and lookout to leave us alone we can always hope.  (just kidding guys)

[Met1985]

Ya Lookout it is very rare. Our local news outlet did a story about more homeless shelters opening up during this arctic outbreak. Also people tend to forget about pets and outside during super cold periods. We brought our cat and dog in last night.

[Wild Weather Monger]

LOL, I remember the system you're referring to well Lookout.  I got nothing more than flurries on the front end, and that band that rotated in from the east stopped a few miles to my east.  I could actually see the thick, dark clouds looking to the east.  Would liked to have forgotten that one!

[buckeyefan1]

It's pretty rare for it to be cold enough to actually pose a real danger to people here in the southeast but next week is one of those times. With wind chills that low, exposed skin could get frost bite within just a few minutes in the mountains and as little as a half hour  outside of them.  I really feel bad for the homeless who really are going to be in a bad situation if they can't find proper shelter. It's also going to be pretty rough on any pets too. 

 

Of course people up north are probably thinking it's been a lot colder for weeks than what we will be so what's the big deal but people (and pets for that matter) down here just aren't used to this type of cold.

 

 

 

jeremy's right, it's highly unlikely anyone besides the usual post frontal upslope areas will get anything except maybe a token flurry if they are lucky. Moisture looks decent enough (combined with the very cold temps in the low levels) for possibly some light accumulation in the northwest half of Ga/mountains, northern alabama, etc. Maybe even a few snow showers breaking containment over the nc and sc foothills... but downslope drying will be very strong down wind from the mountains. So folks shouldn't get their hopes up along and southeast of 85.

yeah, it's one thing to be conservative at this time range but it's another to be so much so you look really dumb since it's pretty much a lock that temps will be much colder than that for central sc and every where else.

With the afternoon package the temp change is as follows.....

Sundays low is 45, Mondays high is 45, Tuesday 36, Wednesday 43, Thursday 50  

[calculus1]

Prediction based on model output. KMGE will hit 10 or lower with this next shot. 12 z GFS spurts out a low of 2 for me. It has consistently shown coldest in a decade or two cold and I buy it.

 

Hey!  A MariettaWx sighting!  Those have been few and far between lately.  Welcome back, sir!

 

Based on data from the meteostar site, I don't see much, if any, snow for the Hickory area.  The three-hour window from 12Z to 15Z on Monday has 0.05 inch of precipitation fall and sometime during that period the 850mb temp falls from +5 F to -6 F.  My guess is that the 850 temp drops after the precip has passed through.  At least, that's how it normally happens with downsloping in the lee side of the Apps.

[GaWx]

I have looked many many times trying to find the date of one of my favorite snows of all time but have never been able to find it. There was a major arctic front, with temps in the teens during the afternoon in west ga and low 30s here in the afternoon. The forecast was for some flurries/isolated snow showers in west ga and flurries or nothing here. I remember being frustrated because west ga/atlanta were seeing light snow with a dusting to half inch or so while nothing was happening here.

 

I also was frustrated because it was so much colder in west ga than here..I really was wanting to see teens in the afternoon , which I had never experienced before. Wind chills to the west were really cold but, again, not here.  The winds were very light, even though the front had passed, winds were howling in west ga, and the forecast was for 20 or 30mph gusts. 

 

Well it started snowing here during the late afternoon on a saturday and ended up snowing all night and most of the morning on sunday, with temps in the mid to upper 20s. It stopped around noon but had snowed non stop for around 18 hours iirc...I ended up getting a little bit over 4 inches and it was one of the prettiest snow falls I've ever seen. The flakes were huge and with the light winds, it was just awesome to watch. I think the accumulations extended from athens or so northeast toward anderson...it was a rather narrow corridor IIRC but since I've never been able to nail down the date of it happening,  I can't be sure. It's bad I can't even say which decade it was in lol. I think it was in the mid to late 90s though. I know I had the internet at the time.

 

And of course the best part was, it was totally unexpected. None of the models picked up on it and of course ffc and gsp didn't either. Although I had a hell of a lot more than that a few years ago, it still remains to this day one of my favorite snows ever.

 

Lookout,

 I'm 95% sure you're talking about early Feb. of 1996.

[max100]

I am curious as to what is keeping it so warm in the Sandhills region of NC? I just find it so strange that Macon and Atl are going to be colder than Fayetteville. It is pretty frustrating though, TWC has our high Tuesday at 35 and a low of 18. Cold, but not record breaking or even all that uncommon.

 

If this belonged in banter I am sorry please letme know!!

Because Atlanta is over 1000 feet above sea level and Atlanta is colder than Fayetteville, NC,  Macon and Fayetteville would be about the same climo, verbatim.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I am curious as to what is keeping it so warm in the Sandhills region of NC? I just find it so strange that Macon and Atl are going to be colder than Fayetteville. It is pretty frustrating though, TWC has our high Tuesday at 35 and a low of 18. Cold, but not record breaking or even all that uncommon.

 

If this belonged in banter I am sorry please letme know!!

Latitude isn't everything. Proximity to the ocean, elevation, etc are also factors. Brownsville, tx often gets colder than Tampa, fl despite being further south.

[Wow]

Because Atlanta is over 1000 feet above sea level and Atlanta is colder than Fayetteville, NC,  Macon and Fayetteville would be about the same climo, verbatim.

 Well, in this case it's because the direction the cold is coming from.  The mountains are less of a barrier for the dense cold air to move into Atlanta compared to the piedmont and coastal regions of NC & SC.

[max100]

 

Coldest Wind Chill panel

 

 

Again, the core at least in the deep south, are smack dab right over the Atlanta Metro.  amazing.  It looks like a glacier...

[max100]

 Well, in this case it's because the direction the cold is coming from.  The mountains are less of a barrier for the dense cold air to move into Atlanta compared to the piedmont and coastal regions of NC & SC.

Thank you for clarifying.  It was like a few weeks ago or a month when Memphis, Dallas sat in the low 20's and ATL was 45..

[griteater]

I am curious as to what is keeping it so warm in the Sandhills region of NC? I just find it so strange that Macon and Atl are going to be colder than Fayetteville. It is pretty frustrating though, TWC has our high Tuesday at 35 and a low of 18. Cold, but not record breaking or even all that uncommon.

 

If this belonged in banter I am sorry please letme know!!

 

Latest GFS has the Fayetteville area with low in the lower teens Tues morning and high in the mid 20's Tues Aftn

[strongwxnc]

sitting at 25 degrees in Spindale NC. Foretasted high for today was 35... I assume this will be the same thing during the next air mass.

[burgertime]

sitting at 25 degrees in Spindale NC. Foretasted high for today was 35... I assume this will be the same thing during the next air mass.

 

I was thinking the same thing. The cold air mass effecting us now seems like it is colder than molded. 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Nothing of interest on the EURO?

[Cold Rain]

 

Nothing of interest on the EURO?

 

No:

[max100]

This is great website, this frame shows current Georgia temps, and it automatically updates every 15 mins.

 

http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT

[Jon]

sitting at 25 degrees in Spindale NC. Foretasted high for today was 35... I assume this will be the same thing during the next air mass.

 

I was thinking the same thing. The cold air mass effecting us now seems like it is colder than molded. 

It is. Models are verifying warmer