SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like 0.50 - 0.75right along coastal NJ on east. 0.25 - 0.50 from EPA to the rest of NJ west of GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The sv maps that have 4-6 is that at 10-1 ratio or 15-1 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Any reason why a better look on the H5 doesn't translate better on the surface? H5 was pretty much the same, just a little more energetic northern stream @ 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Can anyone chime in that is able to give an explanation as to why these upper level features simply do not translate to the surface ? I keep hearing everyone say not to look at the model's qpf output....but the computer models are created to formulate just that based on many things including upper air data. Everyone is saying "looks great at h5....it should translate to the surface".....but run after run it just simply does not...even on the hi resolution nowcasting models. Any opinions? Haven't heard much about this "issue" in other winters but it seems to be "the thing" this winter. Plain and simple the models often suck at qpf output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 H5 was pretty much the same, just a little more energetic northern streamGo back and look at hour 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Is what Yanksfan saying accurate? Since 1/1/14 0z, the GFS has had each run with qpf ranging from 0.41" to 0.48" for NYC except for the 18z run (0.37"). This run came out at 0.44". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thank you Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 H5 was pretty much the same, just a little more energetic northern stream Look at the curl at the lead vort. That was present on the 18Z NAM. The 18Z NAM was more negative tilted with that feature though. The 00Z NAM has it too, but the back vort is a bit more negative tilted on the 00Z NAM Vs. the 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Go back and look at hour 27. Yea man if it followed through it would have been more tucked in, lets see what the EURO shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Plain and simple the models often suck at qpf output Or do they ? If the qpf output consensus is correct....we will get between 6 and 8 inches for NENJ/NYC with good snow ratios. This would make the qpf output correct. What it wouldn't make correct, however, are the ideas that the models are very wrong and underestimating the qpf/snow amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 H5 was pretty much the same, just a little more energetic northern stream Wow, that's a great vortmax track for our area, and it's intense. Too bad the pattern's so damn progressive. If that block wasn't there this would probably end up a sheared out mess off the SE coast. If the pattern could just slow down a little and that lead vort wasn't there, this would be a MECS easy. But if you're okay with 6-10", temps dropping to 10F at the end of the falling snow, and 20-40 mph wind, this should be a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The sv maps that have 4-6 is that at 10-1 ratio or 15-1 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Look at the curl at the lead vort. That was present on the 18Z NAM. The 18Z NAM was more negative tilted with that feature though. Yea it was more energetic, but not enough to tuck it in but we still a little have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 wish this change reflected better at the surface 18Z 500mb for 9Z Friday 00Z 500mb for 9Z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yeah by 7am the accumulating snow should be over.. ..it will be a dynamic situation and time will tell if we get the bear or if the bear gets us. The NWS has scaled back on the light snow that could have fallen tonight and tomorrow. To early to give up on the brunt of a storm for tomorrow night. It is a nail bitter. Argument is to go with prior model consistency and believe (hope) that about six inches is doable for the NYC area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow, that's a great vortmax track for our area, and it's intense. Too bad the pattern's so damn progressive. If that block wasn't there this would probably end up a sheared out mess off the SE coast. If the pattern could just slow down a little and that lead vort wasn't there, this would be a MECS easy. But if you're okay with 6-10", temps dropping to 10F at the end of the falling snow, and 20-40 mph wind, this should be a nice storm. Yea JM the overall pattern hurt us, still it is pretty impressive that this storm is giving us 6-10 given the small window it has with the polar vortex block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow from nws my forecast for Friday's temps went from 15/-1 to 25/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That vortmax on the GFS came a lot closer to the coast, I don't know why that didn't improve the surface depiction. I still think 0.40" is the absolute minimum for QPF here and through most of the rest of NJ, which with 15:1 ratios as much of the snow falls when temps are plummeting into the teens would still give 6". 6-10" seems like a very reasonable call throughout northern and central NJ with the highest amounts in NE NJ. Wish the pattern weren't so progressive but I will gladly take a storm like this especially with the intense arctic air associated with it. I don't think I ever remember potential for snow with temperatures as low as the lower teens and upper single digits by the end of the storm, that will certainly be a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That vortmax on the GFS came a lot closer to the coast, I don't know why that didn't improve the surface depiction. I still think 0.40" is the absolute minimum for QPF here and through most of the rest of NJ, which with 15:1 ratios as much of the snow falls when temps are plummeting into the teens would still give 6". 6-10" seems like a very reasonable call throughout northern and central NJ with the highest amounts in NE NJ. Wish the pattern weren't so progressive but I will gladly take a storm like this especially with the intense arctic air associated with it. I don't think I ever remember potential for snow with temperatures as low as the lower teens and upper single digits, that will certainly be a sight to see. The clipper in mid January 2004 had conditions like that-I remember it was pure fluff falling from the sky and it was a time the ratios really worked out. I think I had 7" of powder on 0.40" or so liquid. The temperatures throughout were in the mid teens, and then dropped to around 10. This one will have wind associated with it as well-that one had little wind. I am kind of surprised that Upton hoisted blizzard warnings for Long Island but not Taunton for eastern Massachusetts. The conditions out there will likely be worse than ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The clipper in mid January 2004 had conditions like that-I remember it was pure fluff falling from the sky and it was a time the ratios really worked out. I think I had 7" of powder on 0.40" or so liquid. The temperatures throughout were in the mid teens, and then dropped to around 10. This one will have wind associated with it as well-that one had little wind. I am kind of surprised that Upton hoisted blizzard warnings for Long Island but not Taunton for eastern Massachusetts. The conditions out there will likely be worse than ours. It was a "very close call" for BOX. The overnight shift might well issue such warnings depending on the overnight data. From BOX: WE THOUGHT A LOT ABOUT ISSUING BLIZZARD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT THIS TIME WE THINK THAT THE FULL CRITERIA FOR A BLIZZARD WILL NOT BE MET...BUT IT IS VERY CLOSE. AS SUCH WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MA...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. From OKX: A BLIZZARD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND...WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH SNOW REDUCING VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Quite tonight for a storm under 24 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Quite tonight for a storm under 24 hours away Largely because majority were clearly hunting Big dog & there is a bit of a letdown. Its simple. most models have largely been consistent with QPF .5-.75 but I think folks got excited with the structure & kept waiting for models 2 correct & when they didnt the baloon burst a bit. But dont worry once we get into nowcast the wishcasters will be out in fullforce & here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Largely because majority were clearly hunting Big dog & there is a bit of a letdown. Its simple. most models have largely been consistent with QPF .5-.75 but I think folks got excited with the structure & kept waiting for models 2 correct & when they didnt the baloon burst a bit. But dont worry once we get into nowcast the wishcasters will be out in fullforce & here Agreed.. I wish I could go back to earlier this afternoon when everyone was excited over the H5 and completely ignoring the surface, but as soon as someone mentions it there's like 30 posts biting ur head off... This should be a nice event regardless and I hope it does better than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks everyone for the info on here I am in NC was going to leave Friday morning decided to call airline if could change flight to tomorrow morning and was able to get different flight for free hope everyone enjoys and stays safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00Z UKMET HR 24 00Z UKMET HR 30 00Z UKMET HR 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone have the gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone have the gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 And of course it's wetter than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 A lot of our snow after hr 30 seems to be coming from the inverted trough on the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 A lot of our snow after hr 30 seems to be coming from the inverted trough on the UKIE. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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