WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 18z GFS and NAM Precip...lets see what 0z brings us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here we go, getting into crunchtime. Does anyone have the 4km NAM snowmap for the mid atlantic...Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here we go, getting into crunchtime. Does anyone have the 4km NAM snowmap for the mid atlantic...Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Mt Holly potential Blizzard disco... AS YOU KNOW...THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON QPF WITH THE 12Z/2 EC HAVING MARKEDLY INCREASED QPF IN NJ. THERE IS A SMALL CHC WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES BUT FOR NOW...ITS ONLY A 20 PCT CHANCE IN OUR MINDS. LETS JUST FOCUS ON VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL TO FOLLOW FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Mt Holly potential Blizzard disco... AS YOU KNOW...THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON QPF WITH THE 12Z/2 EC HAVING MARKEDLY INCREASED QPF IN NJ. THERE IS A SMALL CHC WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES BUT FOR NOW...ITS ONLY A 20 PCT CHANCE IN OUR MINDS. LETS JUST FOCUS ON VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL TO FOLLOW FRIDAY MORNING. Been monitoring this at a distance. Why would Ocean and Monmouth get blizzard warning but interior counties not? Due to coastal winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Been monitoring this at a distance. Why would Ocean and Monmouth get blizzard warning but interior counties not? Due to coastal winds? Winds and the heavier snow will also be on the coast. (visability requirement for blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yes. Blizzard warnings are about wind and visibility. Winds need to be in excess of 35mph for 3 hours with visibility below 1/4 of a mile. Anywhere away from the coast will not see thaws conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yes. Blizzard warnings are about wind and visibility. Winds need to be in excess of 35mph for 3 hours with visibility below 1/4 of a mile. Anywhere away from the coast will not see thaws conditions. Blowing snow plus moderate snow falling and wind gusts in the upper 30s as forecast by mt holly for the shore locations would produce conditions that would qualify as blizzard...the duration of those conditions is the issue and how much of that heavier snow can fall will be factored into a potential blizzard warning IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Quick question.....on radar, I see a link developing between the northern snow streak and the gulf moisture with precip slowly filling in. Also noticing heavy precip on the SE Atlantic coast. Was this depiction forecasted by models at this time? Is anything ahead of schedule, or signs of greater digging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Blowing snow plus moderate snow falling and wind gusts in the upper 30s as forecast by mt holly for the shore locations would produce conditions that would qualify as blizzard...the duration of those conditions is the issue and how much of that heavier snow can fall will be factored into a potential blizzard warning IMO. 00z data will be key here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Blowing snow plus moderate snow falling and wind gusts in the upper 30s as forecast by mt holly for the shore locations would produce conditions that would qualify as blizzard...the duration of those conditions is the issue and how much of that heavier snow can fall will be factored into a potential blizzard warning IMO. Isn't that often the sort of Blizzard you see in the plains states? I've seen some Blizzard warnings issued for snowfall of only 5-7'' due to winds that accompany the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Isn't that often the sort of Blizzard you see in the plains states? I've seen some Blizzard warnings issued for snowfall of only 5-7'' due to winds that accompany the snowfall. We rarely see true old standard blizzard conditions here due to trees. In the plains states, there are few obstructions to defuses the winds which can easily whip up white out conditions, even with no snow falling. Our blizzards depend on winds and snowfall rates to greatly reduce visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Quick question.....on radar, I see a link developing between the northern snow streak and the gulf moisture with precip slowly filling in. Also noticing heavy precip on the SE Atlantic coast. Was this depiction forecasted by models at this time? Is anything ahead of schedule, or signs of greater digging?That crap off the coast is that lead vort developing. That needs to get sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ive seen blizzard warnings issued for 1-3 inch events. has more to do with wind and blowing snow than it does with falling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SnowNAO , ASKED for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SnowNAO , ASKED for this Does this incorporate better than 10-1 ratios or is it just 10-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Does this incorporate better than 10-1 ratios or is it just 10-1? That's based on 10 to 1 , but mayb a bit overdone , but 12 inches in NYC is poss either way u slice it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF's are drier. 0.5" line through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF mean has cut down on precip, and the low is further east and appears weaker. Not surprising, some of the individual members were pretty out there and I assume they came back to earth. .5+ from Central NJ and NYC east, .25-.5 elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF mean has cut down on precip, and the low is further east and appears weaker. Not surprising, some of the individual members were pretty out there and I assume they came back to earth. .5+ from Central NJ and NYC east, .25-.5 elsewhere. 21Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF mean has cut down on precip, and the low is further east and appears weaker. Not surprising, some of the individual members were pretty out there and I assume they came back to earth. .5+ from Central NJ and NYC east, .25-.5 elsewhere. they seem to jump back and forth in every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 they seem to jump back and forth in every storm. They are very inconsistent and volatile, even from run to run you see drastic changes with each individual member. I don't find them particularly useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HRRR drier with the northern stream snow tonight. Isn't that good for us and the storm's development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HRRR drier with the northern stream snow tonight. Isn't that good for us and the storm's development? Could mean that the lead vort is weakening. That's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 21z SREF's are only out to hour 24 on paid sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 21 SREF cut back a bit, but it's .5"+ for most of NJ and into Western LI. .75"+ for the rest of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HRRR drier with the northern stream snow tonight. Isn't that good for us and the storm's development? Could mean that the lead vort is weakening. That's good. Yes not for New England but for us I would think it's great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The WAA wave is not looking good at all for the areas way north, I've noticed the HRRR has not been impressed with it at all, not to mention even the SPC WRF run from 12Z had really lousy reflectivity with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 21z SREF's look fine. 0.50" back to KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The WAA wave is not looking good at all for the areas way north, I've noticed the HRRR has not been impressed with it at all, not to mention even the SPC WRF run from 12Z had really lousy reflectivity with it yeh at 15 hrs , big hole to fill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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