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January 2nd/3rd Storm Observations


Bostonseminole

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Here's the latest regional loop and you can see where the last shot of good snow may come from for the interior...the hop is that the mid-level center gives one last injection...the area near AVP in NE PA is sort of where you want to watch...that batch

Jan2_1015pm_Radar.gif

Too little too late for the cape and se ma. I think this thing is busting bad on the high total side. Snow will ramp up later but we are going to be hard pressed to see another 10+

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I'm wondering about that 12-18" swath they have in the Berkshires.

 

I suppose I might make the low end of that 8-12" swath but I'm thinking it's closer to 6-8".

What's comical is their amounts will verify because every County has a slant stick somewhere. 

3.6° to go to get to no temperature. 

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4.3°F

Ah, no *PINGERS* in this baby -  none whatsoever.

 

Pingers, has a bad rap, actually...  There's an old saying in winter storm snow totals: "It's better to just kiss the sleet"  ;) 

 

Why that is important is because just on the western edge of pingers, or even just a tad inside the pinging axis, that is where your heaviest fall rates are taking place. 

 

For most that is bad, because they don't won't snow -- but speaking just in terms of the "sickness" (as Jerry sometimes refers ha).  

 

But .. .moot for this event, yeah.  This is an arctic nor-easter, rim to rim to geographic rim.  Even were people are 26F, they are still blowing and drifting..  Snow distribution will come down to meso bands.

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The snow should make one more push to the northwest as the rapidly developing mid-level center makes its pass near the south coast of CT and RI. The stuff currently in PA from AVP down toward ABE will probably be the batch we watch...that would give the interior folk NW of the BOS-PVD corridor their last shot of several inches between about 05z and 09z should it perform.

 

Yup... SREF showed a band of intensity passing through later on. 

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i NEVER get the jackpot or even close to it and know that its just about IMPOSSIBLE back this way but i dont think its wrong to be just a little bummed out when it seems like theres much bigger totals all around. i didnt experience a fraction of the victories ct folk have recently either so i CAN BE A LITTLE BENT OUT OF SHAPE over it snowing for 24 hours with less than three inches to show for it.

 

Nobody should hold it against you bro.  Measured 3" here just now also, dense stuff.  Dryslot filling in now and it's improved.  If I wake up to 6" I'll call it a win.

 

6 inches so far here not bad damn dryslot is killing us though hope it fills in

 

Nice, you've overperformed locally at any rate. 

 

GL folks, congrats to you easterners.  True arctic air is always the #1 powder keg element in my book.

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Throwing these up for the weatherman types. Sagamore bridge. Again maybe 2 or so". There's more right on the water but not much more. Still just very light snow

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have a friend up near the Plymouth Ctr. area she reported 6" about 2 hours ago. Will be interesting to see a map of the actual snowfall. 

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BOS was 3.4 at 1, 7.6 at 7. 13 at 1, 19 at 7am?

 

Hope so. Just took a walk, still coming down pretty decently despite unimpressive returns. 

But the mid level center will really have to deliver if Logan gets 8"+ in the next 10 hours...

 

Will post pics in a bit.

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Will be surprised if I get more then 8 inches here.

 

I'm expecting about 6" more here, roughly. 

 

I think best snows occur between now and 12pm tomorrow, I think we have another 14-16 hours of snow out here on the Cape.  995mb low over Cape Hatteras, NC, a little further west than the NAM had it as of 00z.

 

This little lull was modeled and has been modeled most of the day.  The question becomes the 12-1am onward timeframe.  I'm not sold we see the type of ramp up the RAP and 4km NAM show.  The ML centers will be active at that point and that should help but the question to me is how much can we make up for lost time.  This has been anemic for about 15+ hours now.  Every band that tried to form or move in got zapped.   OES bands aren't pulling together "yet" to provide other than bursts of more important snow.

 

The 10-14/14-18 to me for my immediate surrounding area seems like a strong reach based on overperformance earlier. Model QPF, nor radar etc supports those types of totals in the areas hovering around 2-3" right now, JMHO.

EDIT:  A lot of the areas that are forecast to have 10-14 or 14-18 down this way were sitting at .9 to 2 or so inches on the latest PNS.   Meh...just not seeing it.  This may come together sharply in a few hours for some late stage 2+" per hour snows but....I may go down in flames but sticking to the 6-10...more likely 7-9" totals.  Somewhere around 8 +- was the thought but wondering on that now too.

 

There's a blizzard warning up and so far I don't think anyone has come close to verifying that down this way.

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