Wannabehippie Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I wouldn't get worked up over qpf, really. We all know tomorrow at noon people will be calling storm is a bust, I told you so, this storm sucks, etc etc. Don't really get the panic over the 18zgfs. It's fine Who will be the first one to say "storm Cancel"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 For those interested, the 18z NAM text output for LGA gets down to 7.4 degrees with ratios of 23:1 at the peak. SWF is the highest with 20:1+ ratios for several hours and lower single digit temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol...typical if it cut backs on precip ignore it...if gfs showed .75-1plus would people ignore it They wouldn't. They'd praise it and say it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 18z GFS snow maps show 2-4" for NJ and 4-6" from the city north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 18z GFS snow maps show 2-4" for NJ and 4-6" from the city north and east. With 10:1 ratios. It's 4-6 and 6-8 with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can't we all just get along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If I could make a small request, since i'm out in Arizona for this storm can your guys please post more pictures and video than normal since I won't be able to experience it firsthand. I would greatly appreciate it, and I hope you all do well and i'm rooting from the sidelines for the lucky foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With 10:1 ratios. It's 4-6 and 6-8 with ratios. I think we'll average about 15:1. If it gets too cold, we could actually have lower ratios because needles form (sugar snow, tiny flakes) when it gets too cold. That's just about straight 10:1. I think the powerful vort passing underneath us will mean we have some good surprises. I don't think it will just be light or light-mod snow with those dynamics and that sharp a trough. That will create a lot of lift and a large area of good snow, even if the heavy bands stay offshore. And tomorrow daytime might have some light accumulations especially north. People need to think positive-this is our wintriest storm when combining cold, wind, and snow since probably Boxing Day 2010, although this will not have nearly the snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can someone post a decent snowfall map based on the 18z GFS? Trying to get an idea of how ratios can overcome the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol...typical if it cut backs on precip ignore it...if gfs showed .75-1plus would people ignore it Lmao.. You are so brilliant ... Tell us why we should pay more attention to the GFS QFP and not the 500 MB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We're not a wee bit obsessive........nah.....can"t be......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I95 corridor getting owned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If I could make a small request, since i'm out in Arizona for this storm can your guys please post more pictures and video than normal since I won't be able to experience it firsthand. I would greatly appreciate it, and I hope you all do well and i'm rooting from the sidelines for the lucky foot of snow. I will have a live feed starting at some point tomorrow using a 2MP IP camera w .003 lux lowlight performance. As long as power holds the camera will be up. I will post the IP address as soon as it's up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lmao.. You are so brilliant ... Tell us why we should pay more attention to the GFS QFP and not the 500 MB? Don't worry when 00z shows a QPF bomb, he'll learn to look at H5. Even if it doesn't, this is still the significant storm. I can't see how with a look like that at 500mb, we only just get 5-10". 00z is going to for sure be one of the most interesting model runs we've had to watch. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Poo pooing a storm after a minuscule decrease in qpf on one model run of one model is just as bad if not worse then people hyping a blizzard after one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Everyone should just chill and enjoy their day off if indeed your off today for the holiday. I am reminded of the saying, live by the models die by the models. Models are only a weather forecasting tool and are far from perfect. As we get closer to this dynamic event looking at the sensible weather will need to be used to hone and verify the forecast. As per the potential snowstorm tomorrow night into Friday, it will be what it will be. Most model indications have moved towards a greater probability of a significant dump followed by very cold temps. If indeed you get six inches or more of snow be happy. If you get less than six inches, don't sweat it. It is what it is and another snowstorm will come another day. Just my opinion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If I could make a small request, since i'm out in Arizona for this storm can your guys please post more pictures and video than normal since I won't be able to experience it firsthand. I would greatly appreciate it, and I hope you all do well and i'm rooting from the sidelines for the lucky foot of snow. Okay. Enjoy your stay at Arizona. We'll post more pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Poo pooing a storm after a minuscule decrease in qpf on one model run of one model is just as bad if not worse then people hyping a blizzard after one run. Agreed. Especially when people don't even look at 500mb and see the set-up instead of just the QPF a model is spitting out. This storm is literally a hair away from being a storm for the books and I'm literally willing to put stock on 00z showing a huge solution tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You guys have to realize even at 13:1 ratio .5 gets you over 6 inches. Which would still be an awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Does anyone know what yesterdays snow squalls were ratio wise? It produced a solid coating from new brunswick all the way to easton pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We do tend to get greedy, there are times we would salivate for a dusting to two inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Agreed. Especially when people don't even look at 500mb and see the set-up instead of just the QPF a model is spitting out. This storm is literally a hair away from being a storm for the books and I'm literally willing to put stock on 00z showing a huge solution tonight. I've been told many times the qpf isn't really that important. Like you said it's other things. This is going to be a great event regardless. People love to split hairs and make mountains out or mole hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Agreed. Especially when people don't even look at 500mb and see the set-up instead of just the QPF a model is spitting out. This storm is literally a hair away from being a storm for the books and I'm literally willing to put stock on 00z showing a huge solution tonight. I've looked at the 500mb, I see the setup but I don't see this being a hair away from a HECS or one for the books. At least not for the NYC metro area. If I'm missing something please point it out. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This should come in as a wall of snow , and is about 1 inch in QPF that falls in about 9 hours so it prob mod to heavy snow , Temps will be on there way down from 20 to 10 , you got from 12 to 1 to 15 to 1 then 20 to 1 towards the end I think this is a blizzard and wide range 12 inch amounts look good to me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 gfs end mean pretty close to op. The .5 qpf gets back to eastern nj…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 For those interested, the 18z NAM text output for LGA gets down to 7.4 degrees with ratios of 23:1 at the peak. SWF is the highest with 20:1+ ratios for several hours and lower single digit temps. Ratios are gonna be insane up here.. One positive is its gonna be easy to remove off the driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Which model has the lowest max on Friday for knyc and what would that temp be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hahaha you're awesome. What's your call for this event foro ur area? Im liking 8-10 for Nassau and 10-12 for Suffolk as of now im thinking 6-9" for south shore and 7-11" north shore of nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I've looked at the 500mb, I see the setup but I don't see this being a hair away from a HECS or one for the books. At least not for the NYC metro area. If I'm missing something please point it out. Thanks Get the wave to dig a little more and tuck a little closer to the coast and you got yourself a hecs buddy, especially for LI and CT. I wouldn't hold off to say that if we get that wave to dig and tuck a little more, some places could see 18"+ and the average would be 12-15" less west, more east, but that's why I don't post much because I'm not really keen on forecasting, i leave that to the forecasters, but you can just smell the big snow totals, its that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 gfs end mean pretty close to op. The .5 qpf gets back to eastern nj…. western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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