ag3 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 18z GFS looks a lot like the 12z Euro. No it's not. Gfs has .35-.40" of precip for NYC and the Euro has .62". That's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yawnnnn. The center is NOT gona move due east at 36 hours. It has no allies here. It goes against its own 500 mb Which says this will b closer to coast. It's still close to its .5 and its the driest of all the models You guys hav to look at the 500 mb and stop looking at what the algorithm prints out . The euro ensenble 500 mb is classic. If any seasoned met didn't look at a precip Printout and saw that 500 mb map. They would tell u a snowstorm was goin off It's closer to .75 and that's big when talking 20 to 1 at the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 2013 took with him the real forkyfork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even if the totals are juiced by 10-20% for the location of the storm, the placement looks very close to the other models now. A 0z shift west would justify higher totals than todays other guidance came in with. ptot54.gif Almost looks like an inverted trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Effective with tonight's 00Z runs I'm starting to ride the RGEM, its yet to be on a storm thus far this winter...unless it shows something drastically different than the others at 00Z I'll be using it for my forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I keep on reading (for past few days) that the 500mb map should translate into the storm being further east. What causes this and why have we not seen an alignment as of yet? Edit: I meant further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here comes the classic pre-event freakout. 1plus. The kids are home today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Effective with tonight's 00Z runs I'm starting to ride the RGEM, its yet to be on a storm thus far this winter...unless it shows something drastically different than the others at 00Z I'll be using it for my forecasts. This storm is going to be closer to the coast like the RGEM. Think that some of the heaviest totals will be from monmouth up to eastern nassua-suffolk and up to CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I keep on reading (for past few days) that the 500mb map should translate into the storm being further east. What causes this and why have we not seen an alignment as of yet? We have seen it on the NAM and SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone expecting more than 10" is setting themselves up for disappointment. Enough already jeez.. This is a 6-12" storm with localized higher amounts in the higher terrain and maybe E LI. Be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 don't be shock to see some light snow tomorrow morning, but it should lift north. Our show starts tomorrow evening People from NYC east will have to watch that little rogue surface low feature that forms off LI around 10Z tomorrow AM...alot of models show a band of snow from that crossing LI and reaching back towards NYC in the 10-15Z window...and some models show some heavier echoes...the SPC WRF sees it, the HRRR as usual is down before a significant event and the RAP sees it as shown below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yawnnnn. The center is NOT gona move due east at 36 hours. It has no allies here. It goes against its own 500 mb Which says this will b closer to coast. It's still close to its .5 and its the driest of all the models You guys hav to look at the 500 mb and stop looking at what the algorithm prints out . The euro ensenble 500 mb is classic. If any seasoned met didn't look at a precip Printout and saw that 500 mb map. They would tell u a snowstorm was goin off It's closer to .75 and that's big when talking 20 to 1 at the back end. +1 Here is some reading that complies with that. http://tornado.sfsu.edu/geosciences/classes/m302/Notes_Sp07/Notes_2_22_07.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This storm is going to be closer to the coast like the RGEM. Think that some of the heaviest totals will be from monmouth up to eastern nassua-suffolk and up to CT 6-10" with local spots to 12" is the best call for now. And people freaking out over the GFS... Even the half inch plus of liquid it has for all of Long Island would easily be 6"+, maybe 8-10". NYC would probably be around 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can some flakes be in the air after midnight for NYC/LI as Upton says? Edit...Posted too soon, Upton calling for an inch tonight after 10PM, is this believable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here comes the classic pre-event freakout. I can't wait for the classic "radars do not look good" "storm is a bust" posts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I can't wait for the classic "radars do not look good" "storm is a bust" posts tomorrow. Haha it is almost as positive as the sun rising and setting each day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 B.5 into the city .6 Monmouth and ocean counties in NJ thru the N / S line on Long Island and sitting 50 miles E is .7 .8 ( 50 miles ) with a model who`s bias it is to S and E when taking center out too fast . at 36 hours it take the center too far east too fast . Watch the high res models from here on in . I think there`s real agreement that we are looking at .75 here . Its not like the GFS is dry , just A BIT too fast , we have all seen it before . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS is not a dynamic model, as we get closer to the event the NAM and SREF are more reliable for mesoscale banding The GFS is not a dynamic model? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I can't wait for the classic "radars do not look good" "storm is a bust" posts tomorrow. I wil try to not let you guys down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No it's not. Gfs has .35-.40" of precip for NYC and the Euro has .62". That's not even close. The look at H5. People need to stop obsession with QPF outputs. They are going to change every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GFS is not a dynamic model? What? I think he meant that it's not a Mesoscale Model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even the moderate snow stays offshore on the GFS whereas on the NAM it makes it well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GFS is not a dynamic model? What? I meant that the GFS does not point out bigger QPF outputs in mesoscale banding features, the 4km NAM is useful for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Expecting at least .50" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think he meant that it's not a Mesoscale Model. Yes my mistake lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 12z GGEM ensemble mean gets the 0.50"+ contour back into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol...typical if it cut backs on precip ignore it...if gfs showed .75-1plus would people ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I wouldn't get worked up over qpf, really. We all know tomorrow at noon people will be calling storm is a bust, I told you so, this storm sucks, etc etc. Don't really get the panic over the 18zgfs. It's fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 .5 into the city .6 Monmouth and ocean counties in NJ thru the N / S line on Long Island and sitting 50 miles E is .7 .8 ( 50 miles ) with a model who`s bias it is to S and E when taking center out too fast . at 36 hours it take the center too far east too fast . Watch the high res models from here on in . I think there`s real agreement that we are looking at .75 here . Its not like the GFS is dry , just A BIT too fast , we have all seen it before . looking at that, that puts down even more out here than 12z. If you live in the city, you should be encouraged by this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I wil try to not let you guys down Hahaha you're awesome. What's your call for this event foro ur area? Im liking 8-10 for Nassau and 10-12 for Suffolk as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.