+SNfreak21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why would you discount the NAM when its in range and the storm is highly dynamic? This reminds me of 1/27/11 quite a bit in terms of dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year everyone URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY356 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...STRONGWINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-021000-/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0005.140102T2300Z-140103T1800Z//O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.140102T2300Z-140103T1800Z/WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-356 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM ESTFRIDAY......NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY EVENING INTOFRIDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM6 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERNWESTCHESTER COUNTY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AFTERMIDNIGHT THROUGH THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS FORECAST THURSDAY EVENINGTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...11 TO 28.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW COULD CAUSE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS DURINGTHE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILLPRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 5DEGREES BELOW ZERO T0 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO WILL MAKE IT FEELEXTREMELY COLD.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What? Everyone knows the NAM is usually too high with QPF amounts. That usually happens for most winter storms. You have to cut the QPF that NAM shows. The NAM in this case is maybe 0.10 or so higher than the consensus. The NAM isn't showing something ridiculous like it did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 At 1 inch we are prob at the top of end of where could go . But 20 to 1 at some point is possible So depend ending on when the best snow growth occurs will tell you what u get But if 1 inch does fall I do believe that's 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Upton just hoisted Blizzard Warnings for Nassau on east on LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Meh, new WSW for NYC is very, very bearish. NO change to accumulations and not a mention of near-blizzard conditions. Plus, they did not lower the forecast low of 9 degrees for Sat AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You don't know what you're talking about. The QPF looks spot on. Can you please, just TRY to tone it down when disagreeing? These threads have handled the ups and downs the last 18 hrs pretty well. No need for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 235 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-062-020500- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.140102T2300Z-140103T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.140102T1800Z-140103T1500Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 235 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING...SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE SNOW WILL THEN INCREASE BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS LATE THURSDAY AS SNOW INCREASES. THIS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW AND AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. ROAD PLOWING OPERATIONS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM THURSDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING FRIDAY. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY, THEN DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. * WIND CHILLS...THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD HAVE THE MOST DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. THEREFORE, OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE MINIMIZED IF POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW, BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is solidly a 6-12" event and painfully close to being much, much more than that. Another shift west and I think ur right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Meh, new WSW for NYC is very, very bearish. NO change to accumulations and not a mention of near-blizzard conditions. Plus, they did not lower the forecast low of 9 degrees for Sat AM. It states "near blizzard conditions" and a lack of change doesnt mean its "very bearish". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Perhaps I'm nuts, but it seems to me 24 hrs+ out (arguably 30 hrs+) from the heaviest accumulation, it would be wise to have a slightly wider range than the two inch range of Upton. Say 5-9 or 6-10... not 6-8 or 8-10. Give yourself a greater MoE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 mount holly may issue blizzard warning too for monmouth and ocean counties ...said it was a 20% chance of doing that in their afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Another shift west and I think ur right This is about done shifting I think. You should be happy, the 4k 18Z NAM is close to 2 feet for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Another shift west and I think ur right biggest thing 18z gfs and on we have to look for is this thing not to kick east and taking the best dynamics with it and off shore. like yanksfan said this is tantalizingly close to being ALOT bigger than forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even if the totals are juiced by 10-20% for the location of the storm, the placement looks very close to the other models now. A 0z shift west would justify higher totals than todays other guidance came in with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Meh, new WSW for NYC is very, very bearish. NO change to accumulations and not a mention of near-blizzard conditions. Plus, they did not lower the forecast low of 9 degrees for Sat AM. Don't be surprised if they expand the blizzard warnings west tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Meh, new WSW for NYC is very, very bearish. NO change to accumulations and not a mention of near-blizzard conditions. Plus, they did not lower the forecast low of 9 degrees for Sat AM. Agree. They actually knocked down the top end of accumulations from 9 to 8 but bumped it from 5 to 6 on the low end. It's not too bearish but surely not very bullish. They are usually content to bump totals as they go along with a lot of these coastals. It's ok with me I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It states "near blizzard conditions" and a lack of change doesnt mean its "very bearish". Mt holly is worse winter storm watch 3 to 7"of snow rediculous forecast. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 New OKX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is probably the best we could have hoped for in what is truly a progressive pattern. The trough never really goes negative tilt and the low gets going a hair late and a hair southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol heavy snow and 9 degrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 15z SREF plumes have 0.73 QPF for LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It states "near blizzard conditions" and a lack of change doesnt mean its "very bearish". They should have at least issued Blizzard watches (but not warnings for uncertainty) for NYC's 5 boroughs and coastal CT along with the blizzard warnings for LI. And I think a range of 8-12" for NE NJ/NYC and 12-16" for LI would be more prudent according to the latest models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 They should have at least issued Blizzard watches for NYC's 5 boroughs and coastal CT along with the blizzard warnings for LI. And I think a range of 8-12" would be more prudent according to the latest models. blizzard warning up for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 They should have at least issued Blizzard watches for NYC's 5 boroughs and coastal CT along with the blizzard warnings for LI. And I think a range of 8-12" would be more prudent according to the latest models. Ok, but you said they dont mention anything about possible near blizzard conditions, which isnt true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 .A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... NYZ078>081-177-179-021000- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0005.140102T2300Z-140103T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.140102T2300Z-140103T1800Z/ NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 356 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ... BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND INCLUDING NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 7 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE FORECAST. * WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. * TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. * IMPACTS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO WILL PRODUCE EXTREME COLD IMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 They should have at least issued Blizzard watches for NYC's 5 boroughs and coastal CT along with the blizzard warnings for LI. And I think a range of 8-12" would be more prudent according to the latest models. agreed here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol uptons map doesnt go with their point and click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 They should have at least issued Blizzard watches for NYC's 5 boroughs and coastal CT along with the blizzard warnings for LI. And I think a range of 8-12" would be more prudent according to the latest models. They will wait till after 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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