IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4k NAM totals are 12-15" for Northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island away from the immediate shoreline. 15-18" for the NW areas like Vernon up through Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Let's call it a 12-14 hour event on the 18z 4k NAM for NYC proper. Yanks what are the temps looking like at the end there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Services will go on even if there is no minyan. I remember as a kid walking to shul Friday night during the February 1983 blizzard. Obviously this one is much smaller but same idea nice clean white shabbos , no shoveling until after sundown Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yanks what are the temps looking like at the end there 2M temps start in the 30's for NYC and drop into the single digits by hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4k NAM totals are 12-15" for Northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island away from the immediate shoreline. 15-18" for the NW areas like Vernon up through Orange County.Cut those totals in half and we are in business. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4k NAM totals are 12-15" for Northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island away from the immediate shoreline. 15-18" for the NW areas like Vernon up through Orange County. why would shorelines matter in bitter cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ah- hem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Caution is a good word to describe a projection that gives 1/3 to 1/2 of accumulations from an inverted trough. We've been through this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Something happened at 500mb between hours 39 and 42 which caused the trough to suddenly de-amplify. Instead of the coastal being forced north it gets shunted quickly ENE. We're saved by the inverted trough. Otherwise this would have been like a 6 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ah- hem another shift west and some better banding on 18z gfs maybe paul? where I am in SW Suffolk I should jackpot pretty nicely as it should be around 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Cut those totals in half and we are in business. Great run. Just stop with this kind of non-sense. The QPF is 0.75"+ for all and at 15:1 that's 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Something happened at 500mb between hours 39 and 42 which caused the trough to suddenly de-amplify. Instead of the coastal being forced north it gets shunted quickly ENE. We're saved by the inverted trough. Otherwise this would have been like a 6 hour event. that doesn't sound right. should continue on that trajectory not get shunted. any mets chime in on that output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4k NAM totals are 12-15" for Northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island away from the immediate shoreline. 15-18" for the NW areas like Vernon up through Orange County. Would not be surprised to see 20:1 - 30:1 ratios up this way. The brunt of the storm falls while temps are in the single digits. We also benefit from the initial WAA snow tonight which should drop 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The last several hours Friday morning would have 15:1 20:1 ratios this run with the finest powder this side of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If you count the placement of the initial light snow tonight and tomorrow morning like the Euro shows, and then add in the NAM for the coastal and inverted trough, it would be a long duration mostly light snow event with a majority of the snow falling in less than 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 a little shift west and it looks good for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 why would shorelines matter in bitter cold air? He's just showing what the maps saying. I'm almost certain mixing won't be a problem for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just stop with this kind of non-sense. The QPF is 0.75"+ for all and at 15:1 that's 12"+ It's the nam. ALWAYS way to much QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If you count the placement of the initial light snow tonight and tomorrow morning like the Euro shows, and then add in the NAM for the coastal and inverted trough, it would be a long duration mostly light snow event with a majority of the snow falling in less than 12 hours. This is a progressive storm, no doubt about it. That's why I think amounts over 12" will be very few outside of maybe easternmost Mass. 6-10" or 6-12" is probably the best call for the region now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 JM 1220 think NOAA will hoist Blizzard watch for Long Island for tomorrow night into Friday for LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Surface winds look to be in the 30-35MPH range at the height of the storm. Probably just under blizzard warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 another shift west and some better banding on 18z gfs maybe paul? where I am in SW Suffolk I should jackpot pretty nicely as it should be around 15:1 You just wana see 1 inch QPF model support right now the mean is prob .75. Let the higher res come to it And if it 1 then it's 12 to 15. I'm still using .75 in my mind as a base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's the nam. ALWAYS way to much QPF. You don't know what you're talking about. The QPF looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is solidly a 6-12" event and painfully close to being much, much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You don't know what you're talking about. The QPF looks spot on. What? Everyone knows the NAM is usually too high with QPF amounts. That usually happens for most winter storms. You have to cut the QPF that NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 agree with yanksfan yes.... qpf is pretty similar ,believe it or not between all the models i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is solidly a 6-12" event and painfully close to being much, much more than that. That's exactly what I said. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Blizzard warnings up for LI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What? Everyone knows the NAM is usually too high with QPF amounts. That usually happens for most winter storms. You have to cut the QPF that NAM shows. Only when its wayy above other guidance. Right now its not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ... Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 1 PM ESTFriday... The National Weather Service in New York has issued a BlizzardWarning... which is in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 1 PM ESTFriday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.* Locations... Long Island including Nassau and Suffolk counties.* Hazard types... snow and blowing snow.* Accumulations... up to around 1 inch of snow is forecastovernight through the Thursday morning rush hour. An additional7 to 9 inches of snow is forecast Thursday evening throughFriday. Total accumulations of 8 to 10 inches are forecast.* Winds... north 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.* Temperatures... in the lower 20s.* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less.* Timing... the heaviest snow and the strongest winds will occur Thursdaynight into Friday.* Impacts... blowing and drifting snow will produce dangeroustravel conditions. Wind chills from 5 degrees below zero to 5degrees above zero will produce extreme cold impacts.Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions areexpected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong windsand poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteoutconditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. Ifyou must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you getstranded... stay with your vehicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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