WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Slightly more digging at 36, this run should be a little wetter - nice run imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not unless you live well north of NYC. Look at the sim radar it has light snow/showers in E-NJ/NYC tomorrow afternoon. Not a big deal the main show is much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Overrunning typically becomes a nowcast situation this evening into tomorrow, especially with the kind of setup we are dealing with. Can recall in a lot of previous storms the overrunning sometimes shifting by a significant margin in terms of location and bust potential either way is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hour 36 sub 996mb low 150 miles SE of ACY. Moderate snow for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0.25 QPF at 33 hours as per the 18Z NAM. Snow would go from light to moderate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 hr 36 heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hr 36 heaviest precip is right at the coast. Moderate/heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Moderate snow continues at 36 hours in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Pretty nice run...similar....a bit better. Holds back the heaviest precip but still a nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Only a single surface low this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Look at the sim radar it has light snow/showers in E-NJ/NYC tomorrow afternoon. Not a big deal the main show is much later. The QPF fields on my pay site have nothing before 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hr 36 heaviest precip is right at the coast. Moderate/heavy snow Concur. Banding present, so it all depends where the mesoscale banding sets up. At that time we will be nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The vort off Florida was slightly weaker this run so that helped - should be .75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 hr 39 mod snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hour 39 moderate snow continues, surface low starting to pull away eastward. Heaviest snow stays 50 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Look at HR 39. The tilt at the lead vort is tilting more negative than the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The vort off Florida was slightly weaker this run so that helped - should be .75+ Good. The less energy that has, the more energy our storm will have. And the better 500mb depiction would yet pay off for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sref are identical to 9z for us monmouth county folks..Mean of 0.85" at kblm..Min has gone up to 0.27", max of 1.67"..Nmm members skewing the mean with a little over 1/2".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 heaviest stuff puling away at 39 hours as per the 18Z NAM. 6-8" total still looks good to me on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 hr 42 mod snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 At hour 39 a vort max passes right over southern NJ. That is classic for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like that coastal trough the 12z NAM had in southern NJ is now further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Excellent run and 50-100 miles from outstanding. Let's do it! Winter Storm Warnings up in many counties already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wow still mod to heavy snow around @ 42.... could push 1+ ... forks are getting crushed...even @ 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That tilt messed up @HR 42, but overall a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Somewhat of a trend on the latest guidance to increase qpf into eastern and southern NJ. Slicing totals into NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking at hour 39-42 zoomed in 500mb maps you can see how this de-amplifies at the last second and everything slides east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM really gets the storm going, and the quicker the storm strengthens the more likely heavy mesoscale bands will effect the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You guys should do very well, this run. Mod snow with 850 temps below -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like that coastal trough the 12z NAM had in southern NJ is now further north. Those inverted troughs usually trend north. It's probably good for us that it's now supposed to be over central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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