wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Which model has the lowest max on Friday for knyc and what would that temp be? the one with the most snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i think the immediate nyc area gets around .6" liquid. assuming an average ratio of 15:1 yields 8.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Everyone should just chill and enjoy their day off if indeed your off today for the holiday. I am reminded of the saying, live by the models die by the models. Models are only a weather forecasting tool and are far from perfect. As we get closer to this dynamic event looking at the sensible weather will need to be used to hone and verify the forecast. As per the potential snowstorm tomorrow night into Friday, it will be what it will be. Most model indications have moved towards a greater probability of a significant dump followed by very cold temps. If indeed you get six inches or more of snow be happy. If you get less than six inches, don't sweat it. It is what it is and another snowstorm will come another day. Just my opinion.. And furthermore, get some sleep so you don't sleep through the best part of the storm! (note to self). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i think the immediate nyc area gets around .6" liquid. assuming an average ratio of 15:1 yields 8.5" Man, 8.5" of snow. What a bummer, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Man, 8.5" of snow. What a bummer, huh? Apparently, standards for some have been raised since 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. It's double-digits or bust for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Who is poo pooing..I am being called out by nextreme because im saying 4-8 for cj and 6-10 to the north..gee pretty much what the nws is calling...my problem is with thinking 12plus is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z thread open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Will edit the below as each model comes out for quick reference Summary of 18z Guidance range generally west to east QPF SREF: 0.50 - 0.70 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_057_precip_p24.gif NAM: 0.75 - 1.00 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif GFS: 0.25 - 0.50 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_057_precip_ptot.gif GEFS: 0.25 - 0.50 UKMET RGEM: 0.40 - 1.00 (LI) http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/accum/PR_000-048_0000.gif Still think a general 4 - 8 with locally higher amounts (eastern zones)is good for NJ/NYC. LI 6 - 10 with higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Who is poo pooing..I am being called out by nextreme because im saying 4-8 for cj and 6-10 to the north..gee pretty much what the nws is calling...my problem is with thinking 12plus is likely Fact is ... Totals have been increasing from NWS's call of 2-4 since yesterday. Many pro mets have said a foot or more is now on the table. When NWS increases their totals again please do post. You haven't answered the question, tell us why we should pay more attention to the GFS QPF and not the 500 MB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I95 corridor getting owned: Ralph, here do you find all these graphics? Keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i think the immediate nyc area gets around .6" liquid. assuming an average ratio of 15:1 yields 8.5" Actually, it's 9... but who's counting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 And furthermore, get some sleep so you don't sleep through the best part of the storm! (note to self). Thanks - I'll try . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hey, I used to be one of you guys, my swan song in March 2010, but I was here to win a bet on the "Snowicane", as I predicted 16" + in Central Park. A Peter Luger dinner was the wager, which I won, but never collected. In that Winter of 2009-2010, Philly got record snowfalls, over 80" of snow, when NYC did a third of that. Since I moved back, after 14 years in NYC, to Philly, we had a decent snowfall in 2010-2011, but nothing last year, literally, nothing, no matter what KPHL reports. I never forgot that this forum, which my favorite moderator "EARTHLIGHT", NAILED, in that hilarious day in the life post, can lose its collective mind, over a qpf change or storm total, even when a storm is a guarantee. You all live one statistic to another, one model to another. How about trying forecasting, if your math and physics are up to speed, and you have access to soundings and surface maps. As expected, the only thing more sure, the effect of a ten mile wide asteroid hitting the Earth ( I purposefully doubled the extinction size of the dinosaur's Wipeout asteroid ), is the absurdity of watching the flip flop model game of models. It is pure folly, as their winning percentage , based on long range 120 hours, are ALL around 20% ( being generous ). Halve the time, and they are wildly divergent, and professional Meteorologists use a term, "BLEND" ( as in knowing the biases inherent in each model ) what could all be bad physics or initialization, and mix on a weather palette. This isn't conjecture, as there are thousands of posts proving the reliance on models, like finding pyrite, and thinking it is gold. Yes, they are helpful in showing who the players may be, and where other mere meteorological tools, can work. I admit, I'm a JB fan, he's a snow lover. But, his teleconnections is "old school", but accurate. His analog years, a little more his "out there" brand, he merges with his weather sense OF OUR REGION. He is intimately familiar with the tendencies, bias , and history of past storms when fashioning his FORECAST. Surface maps, soundings, water vapor imagery, the season to date, all have more value than entrusting a model, where like a roulette wheel, it comes up 50-50, red or black, one a bust. The jackpot green holds one tiny space. We don't know each other, but I'm a techie. I am working with engineers on my own project, so exacting, as we wanted perfection, and projected performance is based on that perfection. Models are by analogy, in their infancy. I know it's boring to plot surface maps, and keep a memory store of teleconnections, looking up soundings, but the resources are there. I could get a bulls eye at darts ( and I'm lousy at the game ), as be a model and hit the correct outcome. I used to say of meteorologists, just as a joke, what would happen in other real world jobs, where your accuracy was reduced to nowcasting, and looking out a window? JB loves to call out the point and click forecasts. They get paid, right or wrong. In other day jobs, this performance would be unacceptable. The personnel and members of NOAA, are exemplary, and filled with talent. I wish they had the resources given them, to set up the systems which would help these models with their physics' biases, which as currently constructed, produce an oscilloscope sine curve of ups and downs, the pogo sticks barometers of members who live and die with each run. My answer....CHILL , by the end of this system, we have two more months, plus a week or two, to be satiated. Its all good. My call based upon the current surface maps, the improving h5, the seeming intensity only now being felt by the models ( Nam was there ) of the lagging low, putting too much front end energy into the first low, is a solid foot for Philly Metro and NYC, with you guys getting the stronger winds, we are 60 miles removed from off the ocean out of the NE. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!! And CHILL. We have tons of fun headed our way in the form of that crystalline purity, a wonder of nature, the love of which I never outgrow. Keep it together lads. The Storm is coming. Hey, did those lame brains at TWC give this a "name" yet?? Don't be a . CHILL. I'll be back...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hey, I used to be one of you guys, my swan song in March 2010, but I was here to win a bet on the "Snowicane", as I predicted 16" + in Central Park. A Peter Luger dinner was the wager, which I won, but never collected. In that Winter of 2009-2010, Philly got record snowfalls, over 80" of snow, when NYC did a third of that. Since I moved back, after 14 years in NYC, to Philly, we had a decent snowfall in 2010-2011, but nothing last year, literally, nothing, no matter what KPHL reports. Best post Ive seen here in a while! . I never forgot that this forum, which my favorite moderator "EARTHLIGHT", NAILED, in that hilarious day in the life post, can lose its collective mind, over a qpf change or storm total, even when a storm is a guarantee. You all live one statistic to another, one model to another. How about trying forecasting, if your math and physics are up to speed, and you have access to soundings and surface maps. As expected, the only thing more sure, the effect of a ten mile wide asteroid hitting the Earth ( I purposefully doubled the extinction size of the dinosaur's Wipeout asteroid ), is the absurdity of watching the flip flop model game of models. It is pure folly, as their winning percentage , based on long range 120 hours, are ALL around 20% ( being generous ). Halve the time, and they are wildly divergent, and professional Meteorologists use a term, "BLEND" ( as in knowing the biases inherent in each model ) what could all be bad physics or initialization, and mix on a weather palette. This isn't conjecture, as there are thousands of posts proving the reliance on models, like finding pyrite, and thinking it is gold. Yes, they are helpful in showing who the players may be, and where other mere meteorological tools, can work. I admit, I'm a JB fan, he's a snow lover. But, his teleconnections is "old school", but accurate. His analog years, a little more his "out there" brand, he merges with his weather sense OF OUR REGION. He is intimately familiar with the tendencies, bias , and history of past storms when fashioning his FORECAST. Surface maps, soundings, water vapor imagery, the season to date, all have more value than entrusting a model, where like a roulette wheel, it comes up 50-50, red or black, one a bust. The jackpot green holds one tiny space. We don't know each other, but I'm a techie. I am working with engineers on my own project, so exacting, as we wanted perfection, and projected performance is based on that perfection. Models are by analogy, in their infancy. I know it's boring to plot surface maps, and keep a memory store of teleconnections, looking up soundings, but the resources are there. I could get a bulls eye at darts ( and I'm lousy at the game ), as be a model and hit the correct outcome. I used to say of meteorologists, just as a joke, what would happen in other real world jobs, where your accuracy was reduced to nowcasting, and looking out a window? JB loves to call out the point and click forecasts. They get paid, right or wrong. In other day jobs, this performance would be unacceptable. The personnel and members of NOAA, are exemplary, and filled with talent. I wish they had the resources given them, to set up the systems which would help these models with their physics' biases, which as currently constructed, produce an oscilloscope sine curve of ups and downs, the pogo sticks barometers of members who live and die with each run. My answer....CHILL , by the end of this system, we have two more months, plus a week or two, to be satiated. Its all good. My call based upon the current surface maps, the improving h5, the seeming intensity only now being felt by the models ( Nam was there ) of the lagging low, putting too much front end energy into the first low, is a solid foot for Philly Metro and NYC, with you guys getting the stronger winds, we are 60 miles removed from off the ocean out of the NE. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!! And CHILL. We have tons of fun headed our way in the form of that crystalline purity, a wonder of nature, the love of which I never outgrow. Keep it together lads. The Storm is coming. Hey, did those lame brains at TWC give this a "name" yet?? Don't be a . CHILL. I'll be back...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hey, I used to be one of you guys, my swan song in March 2010, but I was here to win a bet on the "Snowicane", as I predicted 16" + in Central Park. A Peter Luger dinner was the wager, which I won, but never collected. In that Winter of 2009-2010, Philly got record snowfalls, over 80" of snow, when NYC did a third of that. Since I moved back, after 14 years in NYC, to Philly, we had a decent snowfall in 2010-2011, but nothing last year, literally, nothing, no matter what KPHL reports. I never forgot that this forum, which my favorite moderator "EARTHLIGHT", NAILED, in that hilarious day in the life post, can lose its collective mind, over a qpf change or storm total, even when a storm is a guarantee. You all live one statistic to another, one model to another. How about trying forecasting, if your math and physics are up to speed, and you have access to soundings and surface maps. As expected, the only thing more sure, the effect of a ten mile wide asteroid hitting the Earth ( I purposefully doubled the extinction size of the dinosaur's Wipeout asteroid ), is the absurdity of watching the flip flop model game of models. It is pure folly, as their winning percentage , based on long range 120 hours, are ALL around 20% ( being generous ). Halve the time, and they are wildly divergent, and professional Meteorologists use a term, "BLEND" ( as in knowing the biases inherent in each model ) what could all be bad physics or initialization, and mix on a weather palette. This isn't conjecture, as there are thousands of posts proving the reliance on models, like finding pyrite, and thinking it is gold. Yes, they are helpful in showing who the players may be, and where other mere meteorological tools, can work. I admit, I'm a JB fan, he's a snow lover. But, his teleconnections is "old school", but accurate. His analog years, a little more his "out there" brand, he merges with his weather sense OF OUR REGION. He is intimately familiar with the tendencies, bias , and history of past storms when fashioning his FORECAST. Surface maps, soundings, water vapor imagery, the season to date, all have more value than entrusting a model, where like a roulette wheel, it comes up 50-50, red or black, one a bust. The jackpot green holds one tiny space. We don't know each other, but I'm a techie. I am working with engineers on my own project, so exacting, as we wanted perfection, and projected performance is based on that perfection. Models are by analogy, in their infancy. I know it's boring to plot surface maps, and keep a memory store of teleconnections, looking up soundings, but the resources are there. I could get a bulls eye at darts ( and I'm lousy at the game ), as be a model and hit the correct outcome. I used to say of meteorologists, just as a joke, what would happen in other real world jobs, where your accuracy was reduced to nowcasting, and looking out a window? JB loves to call out the point and click forecasts. They get paid, right or wrong. In other day jobs, this performance would be unacceptable. The personnel and members of NOAA, are exemplary, and filled with talent. I wish they had the resources given them, to set up the systems which would help these models with their physics' biases, which as currently constructed, produce an oscilloscope sine curve of ups and downs, the pogo sticks barometers of members who live and die with each run. My answer....CHILL , by the end of this system, we have two more months, plus a week or two, to be satiated. Its all good. My call based upon the current surface maps, the improving h5, the seeming intensity only now being felt by the models ( Nam was there ) of the lagging low, putting too much front end energy into the first low, is a solid foot for Philly Metro and NYC, with you guys getting the stronger winds, we are 60 miles removed from off the ocean out of the NE. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!! And CHILL. We have tons of fun headed our way in the form of that crystalline purity, a wonder of nature, the love of which I never outgrow. Keep it together lads. The Storm is coming. Hey, did those lame brains at TWC give this a "name" yet?? Don't be a . CHILL. I'll be back...... Best post Ive seen in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If by "best" you mean "most pompous," I agree. (It's named "Hercules.") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm so happy someone took the time to write what I would if I had the energy, enjoy the weather it's always going to surprise you. Oh, and forget about inverted troughs, if you get one great, but the wind and cold will make this a memorable event. 6" of wind-whipped arctic fun is much more satisfying than an 18" thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks Mookie.....Peter Luger is a little overrated anyway......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Best post Ive seen in a while Thank you White Gorilla. I enjoyed the .....umm, vibrancy, yes, that's it, of this forum. Seriously, there are some incredibly knowledgeable posters with great information and weather aptitude. Then there are the model huggers, who have more ups and downs, than a stressed out mom looking for Prozac. If these members added all the time they spent fretting over something they have no control over, they would shock themselves. They would have 10% more time, or more, to enjoy the world as a participant in events, than by posting every six hours, and poring over hidden meanings for three more hours. In a day, it is mind boggling. I just want people to see the World OBJECTIVELY. Look, other than working across the street from World Trade on 9/11 ( won't go there ), I loved my time in NYC. But coming to NYC from Philly, allowed me to see the blind spots some residents aren't even aware they possess. Like the blind spot when a car is almost equidistant with yours , either right or left. An outsider can see the absurdity of arguing a miniscule point to death. An outsider to weather, would see the folly in MODELS, wonder why anyone would ever do more than get the forecast on storm day. You can be reasonably assured of accuracy then. Happy New Year White Gorilla, and all my former neighbors from the Empire State!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If by "best" you mean "most pompous," I agree. (It's named "Hercules.") Other than my limited knowledge of Greek Gods, and their progeny, I don't know what you mean by "Hercules". I have been registered on this site as Mookiemike , back to the Eastern Forum days. Pompous? To call out absurdity, like how much time is wasted fretting over one model run to another? Someone's "Pompous", due to their need to devalue an opinion which threatens their own tenuous insight that you are a model hugger, is my own plea for sanity. But, Earhlight wrote about that already. Whatever Swiscaster, your attempt to mis-characterize my comment and intent, is just that, your PROJECTION, the truth being I think model hugging is provably absurd. Ten thousand posts here would prove that on any storm with huggers from 120 hours out to the projected storm, 80% plus, never materialize. But, please, ignore reality..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The storm. TWC named it Hercules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z thread time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hey, I used to be one of you guys, my swan song in March 2010, but I was here to win a bet on the "Snowicane", as I predicted 16" + in Central Park. A Peter Luger dinner was the wager, which I won, but never collected. In that Winter of 2009-2010, Philly got record snowfalls, over 80" of snow, when NYC did a third of that. Since I moved back, after 14 years in NYC, to Philly, we had a decent snowfall in 2010-2011, but nothing last year, literally, nothing, no matter what KPHL reports. I never forgot that this forum, which my favorite moderator "EARTHLIGHT", NAILED, in that hilarious day in the life post, can lose its collective mind, over a qpf change or storm total, even when a storm is a guarantee. You all live one statistic to another, one model to another. How about trying forecasting, if your math and physics are up to speed, and you have access to soundings and surface maps. As expected, the only thing more sure, the effect of a ten mile wide asteroid hitting the Earth ( I purposefully doubled the extinction size of the dinosaur's Wipeout asteroid ), is the absurdity of watching the flip flop model game of models. It is pure folly, as their winning percentage , based on long range 120 hours, are ALL around 20% ( being generous ). Halve the time, and they are wildly divergent, and professional Meteorologists use a term, "BLEND" ( as in knowing the biases inherent in each model ) what could all be bad physics or initialization, and mix on a weather palette. This isn't conjecture, as there are thousands of posts proving the reliance on models, like finding pyrite, and thinking it is gold. Yes, they are helpful in showing who the players may be, and where other mere meteorological tools, can work. I admit, I'm a JB fan, he's a snow lover. But, his teleconnections is "old school", but accurate. His analog years, a little more his "out there" brand, he merges with his weather sense OF OUR REGION. He is intimately familiar with the tendencies, bias , and history of past storms when fashioning his FORECAST. Surface maps, soundings, water vapor imagery, the season to date, all have more value than entrusting a model, where like a roulette wheel, it comes up 50-50, red or black, one a bust. The jackpot green holds one tiny space. We don't know each other, but I'm a techie. I am working with engineers on my own project, so exacting, as we wanted perfection, and projected performance is based on that perfection. Models are by analogy, in their infancy. I know it's boring to plot surface maps, and keep a memory store of teleconnections, looking up soundings, but the resources are there. I could get a bulls eye at darts ( and I'm lousy at the game ), as be a model and hit the correct outcome. I used to say of meteorologists, just as a joke, what would happen in other real world jobs, where your accuracy was reduced to nowcasting, and looking out a window? JB loves to call out the point and click forecasts. They get paid, right or wrong. In other day jobs, this performance would be unacceptable. The personnel and members of NOAA, are exemplary, and filled with talent. I wish they had the resources given them, to set up the systems which would help these models with their physics' biases, which as currently constructed, produce an oscilloscope sine curve of ups and downs, the pogo sticks barometers of members who live and die with each run. My answer....CHILL , by the end of this system, we have two more months, plus a week or two, to be satiated. Its all good. My call based upon the current surface maps, the improving h5, the seeming intensity only now being felt by the models ( Nam was there ) of the lagging low, putting too much front end energy into the first low, is a solid foot for Philly Metro and NYC, with you guys getting the stronger winds, we are 60 miles removed from off the ocean out of the NE. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!! And CHILL. We have tons of fun headed our way in the form of that crystalline purity, a wonder of nature, the love of which I never outgrow. Keep it together lads. The Storm is coming. Hey, did those lame brains at TWC give this a "name" yet?? Don't be a . CHILL. I'll be back...... great post. well written, homorous and refreshing. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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