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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014


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CTP lowered MDT from 4-6 to 1-3.

It's 2-4. You have to add up all the accumulations. The 1-3 tonight is not the total.

 

See:

 

  • This Afternoon Snow. High near 31. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
  • Tonight Snow. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -2. Blustery, with an east wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Friday Snow showers likely, mainly before 7am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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I know NWS has lowered totals but I don't think anything changed as far as what was modeled and timing of snow. It is now cast time and I see nothing drastic from radar returns that would prompt a change in our area getting 3-4 inches of snow. It sure would be nice to see the error this time be on the upper size of amounts for a change. :snowing:

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Don't worry about NWS tweaking snowfall maps...$20 says they raise them around 10:00p.m.  Interesting to see the short range meso models trying to linger the snow to near dawn in the Harrisburg area.

 

Not worried about it, just making an observation. I'm sure they'll tweak them a few more times today.

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It's 2-4. You have to add up all the accumulations. The 1-3 tonight is not the total.

 

See:

 

  • This Afternoon Snow. High near 31. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
  • Tonight Snow. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -2. Blustery, with an east wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Friday Snow showers likely, mainly before 7am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

Weird they changed the language. Oh well, thank you for the clarification!

 

Safe travels home everyone later today, kinda bad timing for commuters huh. :)

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No more snow pellets. All real American strong flakes, so crisis averted.

 

Dry slot finally filling in for the most part, have had a little bit more of an established light snow the last half hour. Nice heavy band southeast of Pittsburgh from the SW corner of the state running thru Greensburg, Blairsville, and Indiana could be slated for us here in a bit. 

 

Although things have seemed sluggish with getting going, it's actually pretty well on track, NWS wasn't expecting a start til after 1pm here and late afternoon once to the Sus Valley.

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Triple 2s on the temp and falling.

Last from BGM:

 

LGT TO MOD SNOW WILL CONT TODAY AS MOISTURE IF FRCD UP AND OVER
THE VERY COLD AIR NEARER THE SFC THAT IS BEING SUPPLIED BY ARCTIC
HIPRES. MODEL QPF OUTPUT CONTS TO BE RATHER LOW AND FCSTD
REFELCTIVITY IS LOW AS WELL. BUT SYSTEM SHD CONT TO BE A VERY
EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCERS WITH GOOD UPWARD MOTIONS AND DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THIS LEADS TO A VERY TRICKY SNOW
ACCUM FCST AS LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS COULD GET VERY LOW...I.E. 20
TO 1 OR EVEN BETTER PSBL. WITH LTL CHG IN THE MODEL SOLNS HAVE
SEEN LTL REASON TO MAKE MAJOR SUBSTANTIVE CHGS TO THE WX GRIDS.

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