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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014


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Most models I saw had that dry slot. Even the snow total maps had that area in the least amount of snow in that area so don't think its time to panic for York Lancaster area at least.

There will likely be a sharp gradient where the coastal snows only move so far west and where the current snows begin to weaken. Lots of juice though south of the Mason-Dixon Line. I think Lancaster Reading and points north and east will do fine.

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Weird to see wsw south, east and north of lancaster cty. I know it can happen just weird looking.

 

Remember that most of LWX's CWA (and including that area) has different warning criteria than CTP...Needing 5 inches in 12 hrs or 7 in 24 hours instead of CTP's 6"/12hr and 8"/24hr. They're warning statements are for 4-6", while Lancaster and York are in a high end advisory for essentially the same amounts. It's just that anyone reaching the 6 inch threshold in that area is going to likely be in the minority. 

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Taking a brief detour to note CTP's very strongly worded long term this afternoon:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
***SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20 YEARS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA JANUARY 7-8TH**
*

THE MEDIUM RANGE/LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH HIGH PRES MIGRATING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. RETURN SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

THE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN RESUMES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF A DEEP VORTEX
SPINNING ALONG THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER HELPS TO
INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK/DEPTH OF THE LOW WITH
THE ECMWF REPRESENTING THE STRONGER AND WRN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE CMC/UKMET/SREF MEAN IN THE MIDDLE AND
GFS/GEFS WEAKER AND FURTHEST TO THE EAST. WHILE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST DETAILS SUCH AS THE TRACK WHICH WOULD
IMPACT SENSIBLE WX PTYPES...THERE IS ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PCPN THEREFORE INCREASED POPS AOA CONSENSUS MOS/RAW
MODEL BLEND TO 60-80 PCT FOR DAY 4.

ENTER THE DEEP FREEZE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE ERN U.S NEXT WEEK...DRIVING A TRUE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20 YEARS IS
EXPECTED TO INVADE THE REGION FROM LATE ON DAY 5/MON NGT THRU DAY
6/TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -25 TO -35C /-3 TO -4SD/
WILL SUPPORT FRIGID/BITTER TO NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
DAILY HI/LO DEPARTURES -20 AND -30 DEGREES BELOW EARLY JANUARY
CLIMO. THE EPICENTER OF THE COLD OUTBREAK SHOULD PEAK ON TUESDAY
WITH LOWS FROM 0F IN THE LSV TO -20F BELOW IN THE NW MTNS. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE...A BLUSTERY WEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE BONE-
CHILLING ARCTIC AIR TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20 AND -40F
BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
MAKING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA A REAL CONCERN IF EXPOSED TO THE
ELEMENTS FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD. PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AND PREPARE FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE AREA SINCE
JANUARY 1994. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO START RAISING AWARENESS BY
HIGHLIGHTING THE UPCOMING COLD EPISODE BY ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE EXTREME COLD
IN THE HWO.

 

 

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I would keep your eye on what's happening west of the Susquehanna river and when the heavy precip begins to take on that pivot look around Balt DC.

 

That dry slot at the moment looks like it has it's eyes set on Schuylkill County. We'll see as the night goes on, but like PSU, that worries me a bit.

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I wouldn't get too crazy about the dry slot yet, I do think  from about Shippensburg up to PSU Hazelton's neck of the woods may have a bit of a lull in the snow with lighter rates. Precip still solid in the western part of the state and seeing a little bit of regeneration in the echoes to the SW ot Harrisburg. I'd be a little more worried about the southern tier counties west of York and Lancaster, but they were only supposed to see 2-4 inches to begin with... and folks like Cashtown already have over 2".

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All the dry slot posts was why I found the dry slot in the pre-Xmas rainstorm so damn hilarious.

 

I just got home from work so I've seen next to nothing as far as what happened, or will happen. I looked at the radar, saw the dry area southwest of Harrisburg moving northeast, and saw PSU's post. I'm not going to panic, but I wonder if it fills in as the coastal takes over. Like I said, I just got home from a bad day of work, a long ride home, and didn't really look at much beyond the radar and this page.

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There will likely be a sharp gradient where the coastal snows only move so far west and where the current snows begin to weaken. Lots of juice though south of the Mason-Dixon Line. I think Lancaster Reading and points north and east will do fine.

Yea, the dry slot is much longer then I thought earlier. Area of Bedford-adams seemed to be the least in models. Stil not a bust as 2-4 was predicted in that area and many are close or at it already.

Even here I have 2.75 and the forcast was 3-5 so not a bust. Seems on track in Southern Pa.

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Remember that most of LWX's CWA (and including that area) has different warning criteria than CTP...Needing 5 inches in 12 hrs or 7 in 24 hours instead of CTP's 6"/12hr and 8"/24hr. They're warning statements are for 4-6", while Lancaster and York are in a high end advisory for essentially the same amounts. It's just that anyone reaching the 6 inch threshold in that area is going to likely be in the minority. 

Not to derail things but that confuses me. Shouldnt the criteria for warnings/watches be the same across the offices? Though granted I could see differences for snow storm warnings/watches for PA vs California but still

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I wouldn't get too crazy about the dry slot yet, I do think  from about Shippensburg up to PSU Hazelton's neck of the woods may have a bit of a lull in the snow with lighter rates. Precip still solid in the western part of the state and seeing a little bit of regeneration in the echoes to the SW ot Harrisburg. I'd be a little more worried about the southern tier counties west of York and Lancaster, but they were only supposed to see 2-4 inches to begin with... and folks like Cashtown already have over 2".

All I hope for is for 4-8 snowfall; preferably around 6.

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