nrgjeff Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I give up on Mid South snow. Time to live vicariously on the East Coast from DC to BOS, esp Philly and NYC. They are getting hammered. Fun to read their obs threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I give up on Mid South snow. Time to live vicariously on the East Coast from DC to BOS, esp Philly and NYC. They are getting hammered. Fun to read their obs threads.not really, the fact that the southern apps to the northern apps are below average in snow while coastal areas are above in a +nao is rather depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z Euro fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I would give up the next 5 clippers for that to show up within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z Euro fantasy Of course it hits central Jersey..........it's their year, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Rough season for MRX. Very little of the advisory area looks to verify. Warning-criteria mountain snow may also be a stretch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Rough season for MRX. Very little of the advisory area looks to verify. Warning-criteria mountain snow may also be a stretch at this point. I can't hold much blame for them, the models have been absolutely awful this year, even 24 hours out. The 00z GFS last night missed this forecast by a mile. As did the NAM, and SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I can't hold much blame for them, the models have been absolutely awful this year, even 24 hours out. The 00z GFS last night missed this forecast by a mile. As did the NAM, and SREF. Agreed. The GFS was awful well into the onset of the event, actually. The HRRR painted widespread heavy snow across the Tri-Cities between 1 and 3 PM. Yikes, what a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 eps is showing a Miller "A"Majority in the valley are left out,even clocks Jacksonville,Fl.3-4" Edit:29th system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Everyone needs to cheer up. It is cold and it is winter. Love it. The trough is a little more elongated on the Euro and GFS today. Have to think that might let something develop in the western GOM and move north. Houston might be in the hunt soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 eps is showing a Miller "A"Majority in the valley are left out,even clocks Jacksonville,Fl.3-4" Edit:29th system Unless a -NAO develops, I can't see a storm sticking that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Unless a -NAO develops, I can't see a storm sticking that far south. It shouldn't,should be a cutter with the -PNA,+NAO.More like what the Euro showed today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 That map would make for an awful Super Bowl, which means it will probably happen up there. My ex-in-laws are in New Jersey. I know they're hating this winter and I'd love to take it off their hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 0z Euro week from Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 222 is better than 240! The great warm up for next week is bursting like water pipes it looks like. High of 21 next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If y'all don't mind, I have a question. It has seemed in years past that the models, however divergent they may be at long range, have for the most part came together in agreement the closer we get to an event (i.e., 24 to 36 hours). This year it seems that this is not the case. There is a wide spread varience right up to the the time of the event and more often than not, there are some pretty big misses among the models. My question is, why this year? Is it something "off" in the models? Meaning are they keying on certain parts of the existing pattern and over/under stating it? Is it the particular bias(es) of the models coming into play? Or is it merely the difficulty of getting an accurate handle on the type of systems we're having...like giving too much moisture to the Cutter type systems we're experiencing? I know the variances have always been there between the models even at event time but it seems this year there is a greater spread. Or is it just my imagination? Not a whine...just an honest question! You know, one of my college professors used to say that there is no such thing as a stupid question; just a lot of stupid people who ask questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I honestly don't know that they are that bad overall, they just seem to be struggling with our area for whatever reason. Now for our area, they are as bad inside 48 hours as I've ever saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I honestly don't know that they are that bad overall, they just seem to be struggling with our area for whatever reason. Now for our area, they are as bad inside 48 hours as I've ever saw. Thanks for the reply, John. Yep, I should have specified that the question was directly related to our area and not overall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think it all has to do with the mountains KV, seems to play havoc with the models on a consistent basis, especially when there is solely northern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro is trying to roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z Euro fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN22 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 12Z 22-JAN -11.3 -12.6 1025 59 85 0.00 541 522 WED 18Z 22-JAN -3.3 -12.2 1022 32 46 0.00 544 527 THU 00Z 23-JAN -4.5 -11.9 1021 46 8 0.00 546 530 THU 06Z 23-JAN -5.9 -11.7 1024 58 7 0.00 548 530 THU 12Z 23-JAN -6.5 -14.5 1029 53 11 0.00 548 526 THU 18Z 23-JAN -7.5 -16.8 1036 28 9 0.00 547 520 FRI 00Z 24-JAN -9.2 -20.0 1038 30 7 0.00 544 515 FRI 06Z 24-JAN -11.8 -19.6 1041 42 11 0.00 539 508 FRI 12Z 24-JAN -12.6 -16.9 1040 45 4 0.00 549 519 FRI 18Z 24-JAN -4.6 -7.6 1035 25 7 0.00 554 528 SAT 00Z 25-JAN -4.4 -3.1 1026 26 4 0.00 552 532 SAT 06Z 25-JAN -3.6 -3.2 1020 26 56 0.00 551 535 SAT 12Z 25-JAN -1.3 -2.4 1013 33 96 0.00 550 539 SAT 18Z 25-JAN 5.5 -3.9 1013 35 31 0.00 550 540 SUN 00Z 26-JAN -2.0 -5.9 1015 67 18 0.00 552 540 SUN 06Z 26-JAN -4.1 -5.3 1015 70 49 0.00 554 542 SUN 12Z 26-JAN -2.4 1.4 1012 81 64 0.00 554 545 SUN 18Z 26-JAN 10.4 6.1 1007 43 42 0.00 553 548 MON 00Z 27-JAN 1.6 1.0 1007 82 36 0.00 551 545 MON 06Z 27-JAN 0.4 -4.9 1013 74 16 0.00 548 537 MON 12Z 27-JAN -5.4 -16.0 1021 31 3 0.00 543 528 MON 18Z 27-JAN -4.3 -18.2 1024 20 4 0.00 540 522 TUE 00Z 28-JAN -7.3 -19.5 1027 20 17 0.00 536 515 TUE 06Z 28-JAN -13.4 -23.0 1031 27 12 0.00 532 508 TUE 12Z 28-JAN -16.1 -22.5 1033 30 23 0.00 528 504 TUE 18Z 28-JAN -10.1 -23.4 1033 21 20 0.00 528 503 WED 00Z 29-JAN -12.2 -22.2 1032 27 9 0.00 529 504 WED 06Z 29-JAN -12.7 -20.2 1034 32 13 0.00 531 505 WED 12Z 29-JAN -12.4 -17.7 1035 33 22 0.00 533 507 Bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I see channel 10 has got themselves a new weekend weather girl and she's quite fetching. Sadly, she's a Bulldog from UGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think it all has to do with the mountains KV, seems to play havoc with the models on a consistent basis, especially when there is solely northern stream involvement. Thanks for the reply nut! I'm sure that plays a huge part of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Does anyone else feel like we have been following a 240 hour threat on the GFS for about 3 days now? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Does anyone else feel like we have been following a 240 hour threat on the GFS for about 3 days now? lol I feel like I've been chasing fantasy range storms since new years lol. Next one is juuuuust around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I feel like I've been chasing fantasy range storms since new 3 years lol. Next one is juuuuust around the corner. Fixed it for you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 0z Euro 10:1 ratio: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Fixed it for you....about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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