jaxjagman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Vids out https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Patterns vs smaller storms makes sense, John. IF it happens, would it be similar to the temps you posted earlier? I may get another run of propane. I only use it when it's really really cold or I want a fire and use the heat pump the rest of the time. I have enough left for what our normal winters are, but this doesn't sound normal, at least lately. If it keeps showing the same solution over the next few days, there's a good shot that we'd see a lot of days with highs well below freezing and lows approaching 0. I don't know that the extreme -10 lows with subzero highs would happen. That's an extreme event. But what the models are showing in regards to cold are pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Coming Soon to a theater near you: Polar Vortex: The Sequel Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Still no southern stream. When dealing with northern stream nonsense one must have patience. We will not have long leads with regards to storms, until we have a true southern stream we should not look beyond 96 hours for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 GFS lost it, Canadian picked it up. 0z GGEM hour 192: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Live vicariously on the Upper Plateau into the Tri Cities through the weekend. I don't see any snow outside of those areas. Moisture has really tanked ahead of these weekend clippers. Up there go on the low end of whatever MRX/BNA say. Finally, even mountains probably will struggle. Wind direction has too much of a westerly component vs northwest. Enjoy the NFL playoffs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Live vicariously on the Upper Plateau into the Tri Cities through the weekend. I don't see any snow outside of those areas. Moisture has really tanked ahead of these weekend clippers. Up there go on the low end of whatever MRX/BNA say. Finally, even mountains probably will struggle. Wind direction has too much of a westerly component vs northwest. Enjoy the NFL playoffs! It's not exactly lighting it up here. You know that when even LeConte barely gets any snow that something isn't working for East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 On the plus side, the 12z GFS has fun times from 192 on. Another southeast weenie run. To my eyes it looks pretty good from a 500mb perspective although the "ridge bridge" doesn't seem to be as well developed as has been shown previously. I'll be interested to read what you pattern guys think of that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I almost feel like if I look at the GFS past 240 that I should kind of avert my eyes...kinda like the green traffic light you are approaching...maybe it will stay green if I do not look at it directly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 12z Canadian said "jk!!" on the big snow event from 0z. The low went from near the Florida panhandle to the desert sw. It shows that storm in the GOM a few days later. The models continue with the "nothing but clippers inside 8 days" trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 12z Canadian said "jk!!" on the big snow event from 0z. The low went from near the Florida panhandle to the desert sw. It shows that storm in the GOM a few days later. The models continue with the "nothing but clippers inside 8 days" trend. 12z Euro has the GOM storm but cold air too far north. Edit: By 240 the vodka cold is in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z Euro has the GOM storm but cold air too far north. Edit: By 240 the vodka cold is in TN. A big rain event in between two shots of Arctic air would be fitting for this winter. If we don't get a storm, I expect this may be the coldest January on record without a significant snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I swear it seems like we just can't get no kinda timing. I know I shouldn't be griping with a pattern with potential, but I don't think no state gets more close calls the tennessee. You would think at some point this winter we will get it to come together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I expect the ensembles to again lead the way. Once the PV is trapped underneath the enormous western ridging with a severely negative AO, we can begin to look for threats. I would expect we will have something to "track" within 3-4 days, but that again is JMO. Follow the ensembles and reel the time period for cold in before trying to latch onto any specific threat. It very well may happen that something hits us with very little lead time (3 days or less). Overall, the pattern is headed in a great direction. The last 2 years, your bucket of "hope" would have been empty. The period coming up, it's sloshing out and running over it's so full. Patience will be necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I realize a sensible person would only look at ensembles and take note of pattern trends. A sensible person would be cautiously optimistic at this point. But I'm not a sensible person. I enjoy watching the run to run fantasy show and seeing the crazy possibilities on the models. The one thing that keeps me from being a full blown foaming at the mouth weenie is that I'm not stressing over the bad runs. It's just cheap entertainment. And the bonus side effect is that it's a great learning experience because you can study the 10,000 ways things can go wrong for this area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Stovepipe, you mean there is only 10,000 things that can go wrong? Feels like more than that honestly. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Not surprised at the wx model flip-flopping. Been going on all winter. Anyway, strange week to boot. Kiffin to Bama. Franklin to PSU. Had to snow today anyway - Vols are in Rupp. Always cold for the UK game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Anyone else feel like that if we can't pull something out in the next 7-10 days we're probably not going to this year? Normally I'd never say that but this year, not even being able to get an actual winter storm even when it's well below normal in January, combined with the last two years, makes it tough to keep hope alive. Especially when very warm February is the normal rule after a very cold January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Anyone else feel like that if we can't pull something out in the next 7-10 days we're probably not going to this year? Normally I'd never say that but this year, not even being able to get an actual winter storm even when it's well below normal in January, combined with the last two years, makes it tough to keep hope alive. Especially when very warm February is the normal rule after a very cold January. It definitely seems we are in a different regime from what we were in 20 years ago. A new normal. I'm not too worried about the medium/long range though. With the models flipping around, nothing screams winter cancel so that is good. Still have cold shots and still have storms around. From a gardening perspective though, I won't mind at all if we have a warm period in early February. That will be ideal for planting my spring greens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Anyone else feel like that if we can't pull something out in the next 7-10 days we're probably not going to this year? Normally I'd never say that but this year, not even being able to get an actual winter storm even when it's well below normal in January, combined with the last two years, makes it tough to keep hope alive. Especially when very warm February is the normal rule after a very cold January. In years past, it would seem that is the rule...but normally you see the cold leave our side of the planet. The cold is still there. I think it is a continuation of the same pattern. We will go zonal for a few weeks and then turn cold. I think we go cold for 8-10 days again at the mid to end of Feb if the pattern continues. Might be the year for a late snow. Canada is loaded for bear w/ cold. Shows that a +PNA pattern with no blocking is no good for eastern storms. We'll file that away for future reference. Looking like we might go Niño late summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So is "northern stream" a bad word in Tennessee too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So is "northern stream" a bad word in Tennessee too? Yes, without a doubt Franklin. I can't remember a time when we had such a large amount of cold air on our side of the globe and the complete inability to track a real snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 "crapola"the word of the day from the GFS 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think I am going to skip following weather for a few days and come back with a fresh mindset. It might be for the best, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think I am going to skip following weather for a few days and come back with a fresh mindset. It might be for the best, lol.same here. I think Ji was right. Self waterboarding would be more fun than this hobby. Im sure the euro will have another day ten storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It looks to me like day 8 instead of day ten. Not that it really matters. We really need the pac ridge to retrograde and it just isn't happening. Gotta love how an almost due north jet aimed right at Nashville can smash any s/w that gets in theway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I am ready for the PNA to retrograde or just go away, We might be able to swing a thread the needle storm if we could get a storm past that giant wall on the west coast and keep the damn northern stream domination in check, It's amazing how many ways we can avoid snow here these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I swear, these past few nights make me wonder if I wouldn't be better off building my house on the ridge directly behind me. It's about 500 feet higher up. Because I live in basically a hole in the mountains, I get stupidly cold compared to right around me. I wonder how much it effects my heating cost yearly. I'm 28 degrees right now. My cousin, who lives 2 miles away, at 2700 feet, 1000 feet above me, says it's 38 there. He's occasionally 3-4 degrees colder than me during snow events, which means he gets much more snow than me. And during these clear nights when there are ridge/valley splits, which is often, he will stay in the upper 30s while I'm in the mid 20s. Provided I could get electricity there, which I can, but it would cost 70,000 dollars, I'd move up to the 35 acres remaining from where my mom grew up. It's close to 3000 feet. It also gets no road treatment from the county and I'd have to have satellite internet. But that's what satellite and 4x4 is for. I've honestly thought of moving there anyway. It's completely forested. Just building a big log cabin and using solar panels. Plenty of underground, fresh water on the place for water purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I expect the ensembles to again lead the way. Once the PV is trapped underneath the enormous western ridging with a severely negative AO, we can begin to look for threats. I would expect we will have something to "track" within 3-4 days, but that again is JMO. Follow the ensembles and reel the time period for cold in before trying to latch onto any specific threat. It very well may happen that something hits us with very little lead time (3 days or less). Overall, the pattern is headed in a great direction. The last 2 years, your bucket of "hope" would have been empty. The period coming up, it's sloshing out and running over it's so full. Patience will be necessary. Some of us are running out of patience after 3 years of near nada. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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