Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 EPS is still showing sn in N/FL on the 23rd,just see light still other the the mounts for us in the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Great Googly Moogly 6z GFS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 if anyone (besides me) would like to read up on this "trowal" feature, there is some good information here: Mesoscale Snow Banding http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/023/ Richard Pollman, Lead Meteorologist at the National Weather Service Office in Detroit says strong convection is the basic building block for frontogenesis forcing. “You might have a trough of warm air aloft within and stacked occluded system combining with TROugh of Warm air ALoft (TROWAL). All of these things work together to create instability.” Pollman also notes that it is important to consider Conditional Symmetric Instability where the movement of the parcel slanted, rather than straight up.“Storms occluding on top of you are in the deepening phase, causing a deeper storm than one that occludes to the left of you,” Pollman says. His forecasting team looks for warm or occluded fronts as the first building block for frontal forcing. He says the extreme forcing occurs because the convergence and lift is over a concentrated area. “Lifting the moist, unstable air with added lift from convection helps the parcel to precipitate out,” he adds.TROWAL is defined by Professor James T. Moore of the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems at St. Louis University as a 3D sloping intersection of the upper cold front portion of the warm occlusion with the warm frontal zone. It is a wedge of warm air on top of cold air. He points to the exact location of TROWAL is usually along the ridge of high Theta-e values. It is the cyclonic portion of the warm conveyor belt that wraps around to the NW of the cyclone.Pollman says, “TROWAL is between 700- 500 mb level. Frontal forcing is usually stretched from the surface up through to the 500 mb level, but most commonly found around 850 mb. It is a ridge of theta e extending into the cold sector of the storm. You can find it by looking at the 500-700 mb plan view of theta e. Trowel does enhance the lift, like summertime CAPE. And often, the TROWAL and forcing is accelerated within this winter instability. He says it is hard to forecast. “Usually there are three or four f-gen bands, but only a couple of them really come active.”This banding can result in a blown forecast. Meteorologists may be able to forecast the large scale synoptic event, but locating the meso bands is more difficult until the storm is about two hours away. Weather balloon measurements may miss the entire event. This is another cause for missing the banding effect. Since balloons are released only every 12 hours, the banding event could have occurred in the middle of the launchings and go undetected until it shows up on radar. Meteorologists may have forecasted two to three inches of accumulation, when the stationary frontal forcing caused over six inches to fall. Pollman says there isn’t one specific thing that can be done to accurately predict where the heaviest snow fall will be. He says, “ You have to keep monitoring them on radar hour by hour.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It would have been much better had Cades Cover Loop Rd been open. The snow switch turned off around daylight though. We need a snow picture/video thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 count me in, it has to verify, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 count me in, it has to verify, right? book it Dano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Woo hoo!!!!! :santa: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like the Euro took the bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro looks to be setting up a repetitive pattern beginning as early as 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'll take the above snow map - we had a quick 4" about this time last year under an ULL!!! Profile pic from snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro looks to be setting up a repetitive pattern beginning as early as 168. Nice storm for the E on the 24th maybe.WE get nailed by a warm nose and coming in the mid day dont help any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Glad it shows mid day this far out, likely to miss it 12 hours either way..... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 So true,we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Must. Temper. Enthusiasm. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I honestly hope for the snow, but I really hate the thoughts of that level of cold. It's probably not going to happen, but no one would have believed January 1985, December 1989, January 1994, or other big cold outbreaks would happen either. The timeframe around the 28th when the highs are 5 to -5 across the entire Tennessee Valley are just brutal. the -15 degree lows also dip into East Tennessee with the whole region below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 There are returns all over the state of TN - anyone hearing reports of anything reaching the ground? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 We have eight inches at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 GFS is rollin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 WEENIE RUN!!! WEENIE RUN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z GFS 300 hour fantasy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z GFS 300 hour fantasy: Liked the 12z better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I would like to see one of those at 96 hours. It's bouncing around storms in a 2-5 day window. Hopefully one of them actually starts getting closer. It had a 300hr storm several days ago. I thought it was reeling it in earlier but seems like it's back at 300. Possibly a good pattern, hopefully we cash in at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I would like to see one of those at 96 hours. It's bouncing around storms in a 2-5 day window. Hopefully one of them actually starts getting closer. It had a 300hr storm several days ago. I thought it was reeling it in earlier but seems like it's back at 300. Possibly a good pattern, hopefully we cash in at least once. When was the last time the GFS bounced around storms, even in fantasy land, for this many days in a row? I recall 2010ish GFS showing some whoppers but this regularly, I think this is unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Stovepipe, thank you for the link in the patterns thread (the Atl met). I liked his blog because even I could understand most of it. -That blog says they're better able to forecast cold at ~10 days than they are storms. Does that mean within the next few days we will know if we're getting the really cold like we did last week? I can't remember how many days out we knew that was coming, but it seems like I was warning my brother by Thursday to go to my late mom's home and cover her outdoor faucets, etc. I guess I'm wondering HOW much better are they at temps than they are rain/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Models are better at seeing patterns than they are at seeing smaller scale features like individual storms. There's a growing consensus of the towering West Coast ridge, If it links with the ridge in central Asia and cuts off a lobe of the Polar Vortex just north of the Great Lakes, it will be very very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Patterns vs smaller storms makes sense, John. IF it happens, would it be similar to the temps you posted earlier? I may get another run of propane. I only use it when it's really really cold or I want a fire and use the heat pump the rest of the time. I have enough left for what our normal winters are, but this doesn't sound normal, at least lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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