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January 2014 Obs


tnweathernut

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Are you all talking about the system next week? I'm ready! Even if it's tomorrow or two weeks. I knew this subforum would bring us good luck.

 

We need Middle TN to get in on some, too.

 

I guess it's time to check out NC pictures and worry about the people getting ice. I didn't want to jinx us so I didn't go to the grocery store since you all 1st talked about this days ago, so I have to brave it if there's another coming. Not tomorrow, though.

 

Isn't the difference between a dusting a real snow just beautiful? I don't want anyone walking in my snow.

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That is awesome to hear, congrats!

 

I'm really liking what I'm seeing on radar.  This storm continues to impress the hell out of me.  Looks like I'm on my way to 2.5 inches, currently 18 degrees.  That is entering nekkid snow angel territory.  And yes, Robert will be getting a new subscription from me.  Amazing weather voodoo chops on his part.

 

Edit:  My road and the stranded school bus that was blocking my neighborhood made an appearance on the WBIR, go me lol.

 

:lmao:

I just subscribed to Robert again. It has been over a year when I cancelled it. $10 dollars a month is not bad and he deserves every penny of it. In my opinion he is the best met in the Southeast. Most mets just model hug but Robert forms his own educated opinion and knows what to look for when the models don't. Getting dark now so any road that is still not covered will be shortly.

Thanks you guys...and glad the initial band worked out and held together. I put this graphic out last week. thinking that synoptic forecasting is always first and foremost (its dying out though in college today) and usually the models and actual weather always finds a way to end up falling in line with it. It works most of the time. I'm glad this event had cold air to work with, usually that is lacking, but things worked out pretty nicely this time. Its a totally different setup from the last two years. I doubt that TN Valley is done on Winter, seriously doubt it. February and early March is very volatile. Dont' trust any ensembles or long range operationals without a really good reason to. Right now it looks active as all get out, and sagging jet, which is what you'd expect this time of year. I know the Southeast ridge is showing up and will come, but so will fast changes. Fun Winter really.

post-38-0-32674300-1390963206_thumb.gif

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Yeah, this has been fun hanging on here with all of you.  I've been a member for a long time but usually just lurk since I don't have much to contribute in the model discussion threads.  Supposedly the system next week is supposed to be mostly rain.  Are there any rumblings that could be snow instead?  I would LOVE to see snow on my bday Wednesday.  That only rarely happens, even though I was born in the middle of winter.  LOL

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Yeah, this has been fun hanging on here with all of you.  I've been a member for a long time but usually just lurk since I don't have much to contribute in the model discussion threads.  Supposedly the system next week is supposed to be mostly rain.  Are there any rumblings that could be snow instead?  I would LOVE to see snow on my bday Wednesday.  That only rarely happens, even though I was born in the middle of winter.  LOL

 

I lurked too, since 2011 after the Christmas snow and finally joined in 2012, but I never had the nerve to post in the SE Forum. Those guys scare me. :cry:  I always looked for our guys that led the way here so I'm really happy and I'm sure I broke all kinds of rules today being so excited. I'll try, as we grow, to learn and not yap so much and stay out of trouble.

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:lmao:

Thanks you guys...and glad the initial band worked out and held together. I put this graphic out last week. thinking that synoptic forecasting is always first and foremost (its dying out though in college today) and usually the models and actual weather always finds a way to end up falling in line with it. It works most of the time. I'm glad this event had cold air to work with, usually that is lacking, but things worked out pretty nicely this time. Its a totally different setup from the last two years. I doubt that TN Valley is done on Winter, seriously doubt it. February and early March is very volatile. Dont' trust any ensembles or long range operationals without a really good reason to. Right now it looks active as all get out, and sagging jet, which is what you'd expect this time of year. I know the Southeast ridge is showing up and will come, but so will fast changes. Fun Winter really.

 

Thank you for stopping by my friend, we very much appreciated your insight into the latest situation!  I wish you the best of luck with snow this season and I hope you get many many more subscribers, you deserve them!

 

1zsIPx7.jpg

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:lmao:

Thanks you guys...and glad the initial band worked out and held together. I put this graphic out last week. thinking that synoptic forecasting is always first and foremost (its dying out though in college today) and usually the models and actual weather always finds a way to end up falling in line with it. It works most of the time. I'm glad this event had cold air to work with, usually that is lacking, but things worked out pretty nicely this time. Its a totally different setup from the last two years. I doubt that TN Valley is done on Winter, seriously doubt it. February and early March is very volatile. Dont' trust any ensembles or long range operationals without a really good reason to. Right now it looks active as all get out, and sagging jet, which is what you'd expect this time of year. I know the Southeast ridge is showing up and will come, but so will fast changes. Fun Winter really.

Thanks for stopping by Robert, you really nailed this one and I am happy to be a subscriber of yours.  I always look forward to your opinions and forecasting prowess.  Have a great rest of the week.  I hope you get a boatload of new subscribers.

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about 4 years ago when i first started reading any weather forums i told my wife there is one guy in particular that really knows what he is posting, it turns out now that was Robert although then i only knew his moniker online and only knew what i had read really made sense.........

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Now the thing here is the cold. I'm already down to 3 degrees. Finished up with 1.9 inches of snow, total on the year is now 12.7 inches. Glad to see you guys get a good 3-5 inches down in the Valley. You so often have to watch snow on the Plateau and in the Mountains while you get flizzards. Glad today was a pay-off.

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It's so pretty, John, and I didn't have to drive to see it!

 

From reading in the SE Forum, it sounds like we did better so far than people that were forecast to get around six inches. Now that would kill me. They say it's really tiny powder and my flakes looked like normal snow, which was surprising to me. I didn't expect that with the temps we had.

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It's so pretty, John, and I didn't have to drive to see it!

 

From reading in the SE Forum, it sounds like we did better so far than people that were forecast to get around six inches. Now that would kill me. They say it's really tiny powder and my flakes looked like normal snow, which was surprising to me. I didn't expect that with the temps we had.

Most of the time, when temps are this cold, snow falls in very tiny flakes, when snow is heavy it's just a whole lot of tiny flakes. I've especially found this true for synoptic snow. You usually only get the big flakes down to the upper 20s. I am not sure what caused the big flakes here today considering it was 12 degrees when I had the biggest flakes falling.

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about 4 years ago when i first started reading any weather forums i told my wife there is one guy in particular that really knows what he is posting, it turns out now that was Robert although then i only knew his moniker online and only knew what i had read really made sense.........

I told my wife the same thing two years ago!! Now, I'm no Nostradamus, but the next huge snow for the Knoxville area is gonna be on February 21st. Book it. Wife and I are buying a house and moving that day. I LOVE snow, but I'm already having dreams of driving a Uhaul in the snow. Wheeee!!!!!!

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John, I'm not sure how cold it was here all day. I forgot to check I was so busy watching the snow. When it came back later than I expected, I know it was in the teens then. I lived in NM for a while and I saw some tiny tiny snow when it was super cold. There'd be so much of it, it would still build up, but man would that stuff blow around.

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