wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GGEM is pretty much the continuation of the RGEM, so that should be of no surprise. When the RGEM looked great last night, the GGEM whiffed largely. It doesn't work that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GGEM is pretty much the continuation of the RGEM, so that should be of no surprise. Heard through the grapevine ukie is amped, need confirmation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Heard through the grapevine ukie is amped, need confirmation Can i join you on the grapevine? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 When the RGEM looked great last night, the GGEM whiffed largely. It doesn't work that way. Wasn't the bulk of the storm still in GGEM range though last night; where as now it's mainly RGEM's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 500 BM says he may be right We really need that southern feature to dampen out along the lines of the RGEM instead of the NAM and consolidate the low further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think as more models come into play they will start consolidating the main low like the RGEM is showing instead of the initial one, which will be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We really need that southern feature to dampen out along the lines of the RGEM instead of the NAM and consolidate the low further west. GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif GZ_D5_PN_036_0000NAM.gif When the center comes off the Delmarva it should deepen closer in not sure if the euro is gona see it But think the his res models will catch the banding that's Gona go on closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 QPF summary for today's 12z runs all seem to indicate at least 0.50 or higher for eastern NJ into NYC and more as you head north and east into LI and SNE. SREF: > 0.5 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_063_precip_p24.gif NAM: >0.50 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_066_precip_ptot.gif RGEM: 0.75 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_12/accum/PR_000-048_0000.gif GFS: 0.50 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_066_precip_ptot.gif GGEM: NOT out yet but appears to be 0.50 - 0.75 UKMET: 0.50 I think 4 - 8 is a good projection now with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am gaining confidence that NYC metro will see 6+ with a foot possible esp in Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With each of these little improvements I'm very confident the NS of Long Island especially east of Huntington has a very good chance of going over the 10-12" mark if these small improvements in runs continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am gaining confidence that NYC metro will see 6+ with a foot possible esp in Hudson Valley. Metsfan you think that according to the H5/500mb presentation on the models that we will indeed see trends reflected on the models that the storm will be closer to the coast and banding towards coastal areas as well? Im thinking personally JB saying 1-2 for nyc and especially may not be far fetched if we can easily attain 15:1 ratios and over 1 inch liquid if the storm does indeed develop and bomb out closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Metsfan you think that according to the H5/500mb presentation on the models that we will indeed see trends reflected on the models that the storm will be closer to the coast and banding towards coastal areas as well? Im thinking personally JB saying 1-2 for nyc and especially may not be far fetched if we can easily attain 15:1 ratios and over 1 inch liquid if the storm does indeed develop and bomb out closer to the coast Based on the presentation of the 250 mb jet the storm will be closer to the coast. As far as banding the storm looks to develop a tad too late, but eastern Long Island might see some banding only because they are closer to the low pressure center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With each of these little improvements I'm very confident the NS of Long Island especially east of Huntington has a very good chance of going over the 10-12" mark if these small improvements in runs continues... There could be some LI Sound enhancement at the end as the very cold temps move over that water. I could definitely see jackpots along Rt. 25 in Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Based on the presentation of the 250 mb jet the storm will be closer to the coast. As far as banding the storm looks to develop a tad too late, but eastern Long Island might see some banding only because they are closer to the low pressure center. it'll be interesting to see where the exact banding sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 12Z SPC WRF continues on the idea NYC/LI could see some activity tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There could be some LI Sound enhancement at the end as the very cold temps move over that water. I could definitely see jackpots along Rt. 25 in Suffolk County. The ending Friday morning looks as cold as the start of PD2 at JFK. That was some of the best powder that I have seen here. 2-16-03 JFK 8:51 PM 14.0 °F -2.0 °F 14.0 °F 100% 30.56 in 0.8 mi NNE 16.1 mph - 0.02 in Snow Light Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 His calls of 1-2 feet are not far fetched i think I'm not saying he doesn't hype, but "( and this could dump 1-2 feet NYC -ratio)" is not a "call" of 1-2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I have a feeling the euro is going to hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am gaining confidence that NYC metro will see 6+ with a foot possible esp in Hudson Valley. Esp. if the low sets in closer to the coast along with the snow ratios in the Hudson valley. That could also bring up the wind speeds a bit inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I have a feeling the euro is going to hit hard. Highly doubt it. This close to an event it doesn't usually shift much and I've seen it on the lower end of guidance before. Would be nice if it did and we had a consensus but wouldn't be surprised if it stayed on the drier side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I have a feeling the euro is going to hit hard. Well lets hope it comes in line with all the other models... Totals across the area seem to be in the 6-10 inch range with the potential for more!!! The storm really excites me because of the extreme cold and high potential ratios. Even if we only saw .30-.40 we could very well see a low end warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deguy50 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I have a feeling the euro is going to hit hard. how hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Still can't get over the beautiful H5 on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs mean .5+ back to del river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs mean .5+ back to del river that sounds like the wettest run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 how hard Well.. we are just gonna have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 how hard Whew its gonna hurt bad! Hahaha Wouldnt surprise me to see the euro show a more amped up closer to coast solution non-red tagger and red taggers have been saying this argues to be closer to the coast so we'll see the trends at 12z euro my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GEFS is gorgeous. .5 is well back into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That H5 is at some point going to have to translate to the surface or this is going to become a what if scenario. Most models are continuing the more snow trend. Even if the euro doesn't, who really cares. It hasn't been that good lately, and most models point too at the very least high end moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just watch the Hi Res models QPF from here on in. Lotta smart pp think this goes from 15 to 1 to 20 to 1 at the back end . You are close to seeing .75 on a lot of the models today. Ths is not a 6 inch storm anymore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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