PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is painfully close to being a bigger event 500 mb says more slp closer to coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Basicall its a 4-8 type forecast in nj......nice storm....warning levels probably not reached south of somerset but ocean and monmouth the exceptions. Ny to li probably 6-10 I do not get all the noise here. The model runs are not trending toward more snow...they are hovering in the same area and starting to agree. Why are people continuing to hope for bigger totals when models arent showing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Mods can you please remove my last few posts. I don't want to start a fire here with my observations of the model readings. However, if everything does not seem to support constant improvement in subsequent runs, I don't feel there is a need to pretend they do. Sorry if what I was saying has been misconstrued. I am of course excited about this event as well and simply trying to be realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Add the GFS also. 0.5-0.75" QPF could mean 6-10" amounts. Most models seem to be honing in on that, and the upper air trends continue to be encouraging. I think if anything the returns near the coast should keep strengthening on future runs. I don't think an RGEM like outcome is really that farfetched-and if that verified there would be amounts to a foot if not slightly more. The lead wave coming out ahead of the main trough should hopefully keep shearing out and de-emphasizing, and that would be to our benefit. Friday morning could be an all out blizzard, or near blizzard for many especially near the coast, given there will likely be a lot of blowing snow, and temps dropping through the teens with what remains of the falling snow. I agree with this, and I think we could actually verify the B word in this type of setup. Even without heavy accums, dump a few inches of fluff crank up the wind and it gets nasty in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Mods can you please remove my last few posts. I don't want to start a fire here with my observations of the model readings. However, if everything does not seem to support constant improvement in subsequent runs, I don't feel there is a need to pretend they do. Sorry if what I was saying has been misconstrued. I am of course excited about this event as well and simply trying to be realistic You have not said one single thing to back up the claim that the models are trending better each run, especially at H5. Of course you can share an opinion, but you have to back it up mang. Can't claim the trends are away from a major hit, when the RGEM and 6z NAM had us getting 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is the hour which could change everything , that max that's off the Delmarva coast should be closer to the coast , The RGEM is seeing it , last nites NAM saw it . This is not done trending IMO , look at the 500 MB map there should be more SLP closer to the coast . The high res gona catch this first . this could easily get to 1 inch QPF .and at 15 to 1 its not off the table . We are in a great spot .worst case and this is our safety net . agreed. 18z and 00z are going to tell the story. we're literally one baby step away from a 4-8 to 12-15" in areas. Today is a big day, and it's still early, but you can see the picture being painted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What time should winter storm warnings be up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 agreed. 18z and 00z are going to tell the story. we're literally one baby step away from a 4-8 to 12-15" in areas. Today is a big day, and it's still early, but you can see the picture being painted. Paul ( PB GFI ) has been pretty dead on with his future model run predictions and i agree with him in saying that max should be closer to the coast with the Lp. As the afternoon wears on models should start to see that and we'll gradually get better results. H5/500mb shows this storm is one baby step away from being ALOT. As said rgem is seeing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What time should winter storm warnings be up? Warnings are for when we are within 24 hours of the main snow event. OKX is considering blizzard watches out here. Winds are looking very strong. 20-30mph sustained easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What time should winter storm warnings be up? If positive trends and closer to the coast solutions commence and continue today i feel confident in blizzard warnings atleast for coastal locations for the winds than will also be big as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What time should winter storm warnings be up? Looks like we're going to miss the overrunning, so I'd guess Upton raises the warnings with this afternoon's packages, since the event won't start for un until tomorrow late day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Basicall its a 4-8 type forecast in nj......nice storm....warning levels probably not reached south of somerset but ocean and monmouth the exceptions. Ny to li probably 6-10 I do not get all the noise here. The model runs are not trending toward more snow...they are hovering in the same area and starting to agree. Why are people continuing to hope for bigger totals when models arent showing that Another one who doesn't know what he's talking about! Yesterday you said this was 2-4, now you are saying 4-8 and 6-10? Every model run is showing more and more snow. Every pro met is saying the same thing and that the storm is trending bigger as it's looking more impressive with each model run. If it's going to bust then it's likely to bust with much more snow then less. Those are the odds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Warnings are for when we are within 24 hours of the main snow event. OKX is considering blizzard watches out here. Winds are looking very strong. 20-30mph sustained easily. So that would be around 3 today? And can we have both a storm warning and a blizzard watch? Or the blizzard watch overrides the warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So that would be around 3 today? And can we have both a storm warning and a blizzard watch? Or the blizzard watch overrides the warning? No. Blizzard warning only. And you will have one. My guess is, for 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like we're going to miss the overrunning, so I'd guess Upton raises the warnings with this afternoon's packages, since the event won't start for un until tomorrow late day. We may get hit with the initial round of it from about 10-14Z...last night's SPC WRF showed that and a few higher RES models show that timeframe too, especially LI and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We may get hit with the initial round of it from about 10-14Z...last night's SPC WRF showed that and a few higher RES models show that timeframe too, especially LI and NYC Sure. I'm just nowcasting. Radar doesn't seem conducive. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No. Blizzard warning only. And you will have one. My guess is, for 8-12". Nice. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is painfully close to being a bigger event Yeah, we'll be monitoring convective trends down to the south to see how that weak southern feature verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The HRRR I'm looking forward to looking at, come tonight. Always fun to watch that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Another one who doesn't know what he's talking about! Yesterday you said this was 2-4, now you are saying 4-8 and 6-10? Every model run is showing more and more snow. Every pro met is saying the same thing and that the storm is trending bigger as it's looking more impressive with each model run. If it's going to bust then it's likely to bust with much more snow then less. Those are the odds now. Clearly some of the models are catching on to the potential of it being something more. That's not wish casting. It would be irresponsible to be caught off guard because you said this is a 4-8" event no more no less. Sometimes its a 4-8" event and that's the max no chance of more. This setup is one that needs to be monitored. That doesn't mean it will happen or that we're wishcasting..that's just good forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So accuweather has me with a high of 15 Friday low -1!!! Brrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The HRRR I'm looking forward to looking at, come tonight. Always fun to watch that Your right about that. That model has my MVP nomination for the winter or 2013-14 thus far, it hasnt missed much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 12Z GGEM looks like its 0.60-0.75 liquid but don't hold me too it, need the color maps first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Joe B now feels he may be too low for NYC area: I am not backing down from Blizzard idea for several hours late Thu night into Fri am NJ to New England. Storm may double my amts some spots NYC. Whether 4, 8 or 16 ( and this could dump 1-2 feet NYC -ratio) Rarely is the kind of wind and cold while snowing seen in these areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Joe B now feels he may be too low for NYC area: he may be right if the models keep trending that way. He also brings up a good point that this will be one of our coldest snowstorms area wide with temps in the teens and single digits and abnormally high ratios. His calls of 1-2 feet are not far fetched i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Joe B now feels he may be too low for NYC area: Joe B's jumping the gun as much as possible like always. I think 12" is a possibility though if the surface depictions improve along with the upper air energy later today and tonight. The blizzard conditions are the most likely outcome, regardless of the amount of snow that falls. Friday morning will be absolutely brutal outside. I'd say 6-10" is the best guess for now, with potential for upside if models like the RGEM are correct. Southern NJ could be a jackpot zone if the NAM and other models developing the inverted trough there are correct-although those often trend north at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 confirmed. ggem is on board! wintersgrasp frowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Joe B's jumping the gun as much as possible like always. I think 12" is a possibility though if the surface depictions improve along with the upper air energy later today and tonight. The blizzard conditions are the most likely outcome, regardless of the amount of snow that falls. Friday morning will be absolutely brutal outside. I'd say 6-10" is the best guess for now, with potential for upside if models like the RGEM are correct. Southern NJ could be a jackpot zone if the NAM and other models developing the inverted trough there are correct-although those often trend north at the end. 500 BM says he may be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 confirmed. ggem is on board! wintersgrasp frowns. The GGEM is pretty much the continuation of the RGEM, so that should be of no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GGEM will have 9-12" of snow with 15:1 ratios for NE NJ/NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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