DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As with its previous runs, I really think the GFS is struggling mightily with this one. Can't decise on a SLP, h5 is very nice, and its dry for your area and S (well drier than it should be**) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hr 45 steady snow temps in teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 gfs looks better than the past two runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hr 48 steady snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 .5+ from eastern half of nj-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 gfs looks better than the past two runs It continues to improve. All models keep trending for more and more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4-8 this run with 8+ on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS like the NAM...solid warning level snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How are the ratios on this run? Must be atleast 15:1, maybe 20:1. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Right around .4" for at least the 4th run in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4-8 this run with 8+ on Long Island With great 15:1 or greater ratios i think LI can get a foot+ with this system not to mention blizzard conditions with the winds with this storm as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So far looks like the nam rgem and now gfs AT LEAST has 5 or 6 plus inches of snow for most on this forum. Thats with just 10:1-12:1 ratios. Good trends this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can someone post GFS precip maps please? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM .8 , SREF .75 , NAM .75, GFS .5 , at 15 to 1 , Think that's a good hit regardless . Euro will be in this range . Thinks its 8 to 10 around the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We could do even better in later runs if that southern vort shears out a little bit more with the coupled jet structure near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Trends this morning have actually been away from a MAJOR event. Being that that was not what would happen anyway....trends have been steadily moving towards a low warning criteria snowfall. Very solid, very cold !. Also think someone in south central jersey will get more than NNJ here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Trends this morning have actually been away from a MAJOR event. Being that that was not what would happen anyway....trends have been steadily moving towards a low warning criteria snowfall. Very solid, very cold !. Also think someone in south central jersey will get more than NNJ here Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Trends this morning have actually been away from a MAJOR event. Being that that was not what would happen anyway....trends have been steadily moving towards a low warning criteria snowfall. Very solid, very cold !. Also think someone in south central jersey will get more than NNJ here NAM, SREF, GFS, CMC are <0.5 QPF, which is 6+ for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Trends this morning have actually been away from a MAJOR event. Being that that was not what would happen anyway....trends have been steadily moving towards a low warning criteria snowfall. Very solid, very cold !. Also think someone in south central jersey will get more than NNJ here RGEM .8 , SREF .75 , NAM .75, GFS .5 , at 15 to 1 , Think that's a good hit regardless . Euro will be in this range . Thinks its 8 to 10 around the area . This is NYC The artic low is getting better defined . Chicago already has 4 to 6 out of .3 not low end at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lets see Mount Holly responds now with WSW for our area!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM, SREF, GFS, CMC are <0.5 QPF, which is 6+ for the area Did you mean >.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We could do even better in later runs if that southern vort shears out a little bit more with the coupled jet structure near the BM. USA_GRDHGT_300mb_045.gif this is painfully close to being a bigger event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM, SREF, CMC are <0.5 QPF, which is 6+ for the area Add the GFS also. 0.5-0.75" QPF could mean 6-10" amounts. Most models seem to be honing in on that, and the upper air trends continue to be encouraging. I think if anything the returns near the coast should keep strengthening on future runs. I don't think an RGEM like outcome is really that farfetched-and if that verified there would be amounts to a foot if not slightly more. The lead wave coming out ahead of the main trough should hopefully keep shearing out and de-emphasizing, and that would be to our benefit. Friday morning could be an all out blizzard, or near blizzard for many especially near the coast, given there will likely be a lot of blowing snow, and temps dropping through the teens with what remains of the falling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Trends this morning have actually been away from a MAJOR event. Being that that was not what would happen anyway....trends have been steadily moving towards a low warning criteria snowfall. Very solid, very cold !. Also think someone in south central jersey will get more than NNJ here What ? I you still drunk? Come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol I'm being attacked here....all I am saying is that model runs do not continue the nuttiness from yesterday. They are more realistic and will deliver an excellent snow event ! No downer here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What ? I you still drunk? Come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol I'm being attacked here....all I am saying is that model runs do That's the problem. You clearly don't look at any other levels other than the surface and only post when a run comes out that shows a less snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What ? I you still drunk? Come on man. Example of someone who should read more and post less right there. Anyway this is VERY close to becoming something much bigger and trends are slowly stepping towards that, its soooo close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is the hour which could change everything , that max that's off the Delmarva coast should be closer to the coast , The RGEM is seeing it , last nites NAM saw it . This is not done trending IMO , look at the 500 MB map there should be more SLP closer to the coast . The high res gona catch this first . this could easily get to 1 inch QPF .and at 15 to 1 its not off the table . We are in a great spot .worst case and this is our safety net . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is painfully close to being a bigger event Coming from you, I'm impressed, as you, I think, would be the last person to hype an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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