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12z model discussion jan 2-3 storm 1/1/2014


Zelocita Weather

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Based on all the model guidance, including some input from the NAM, my preliminary snowfall ideas for the NYC area are:

 

EWR: 4"-8"

GON: 6"-12"

HPN: 4"-8"

ISP: 6"-10"

JFK: 4"-8"

LGA: 4"-8"

NYC 4"-8"

POU: 6"-12"

 

The single caveat is that if there is going to be an error, odds lean toward the error's being the result of a larger snowfall rather than a smaller one given the potential shown in the upper-air maps relative to the surface.

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hires_ref_streak_neng_43.png

If  we reach Blizzard criteria , its here and the Following 3 hours at 45 by this time temps will have fallen into the low teens ,

and winds should b near 25 mph , with this kind of reduced visibility , its possible if these rates  verify

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hires_ref_streak_neng_43.png

If we reach Blizzard criteria , its here and the Following 3 hours at 45 by this time temps will have fallen into the low teens ,

and winds should b near 25 mph , with this kind of reduced visibility , its possible if these rates verify

Think from nassua/suffolk border we can pull off a foot plus paul?

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