earthlight Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I cannot believe the changes aloft on this run compared even to the 06 and 00z runs. Remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Look At H5 This is gonna be a good run! IMO http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I cannot believe the changes aloft on this run compared even to the 06 and 00z runs. Remarkable. I am assuming you mean this in a good way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Northern stream Getting involved like crazy! If the NAM is right :0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hr 42-45 mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol earthlight am I looking at a different model run? Seems much more progressive and lighter. Could be not much more than half of the qpf last run. New England forum saying it backed off too. Me confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Look At H7 wow perfect StJ connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh sweet tender loving NAM dont tease me just give it all to me baby! ( banter john i know lol ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hr 48 steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol earthlight am I looking at a different model run? Seems much more progressive and lighter. Could be not much more than half of the qpf last run Stop Talking please & let pros handle analysis. THANK YOU & Happy new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nam is more realistic with qpf thus far thru 39 hrs. Now it starts to get out of its wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I cannot believe the changes aloft on this run compared even to the 06 and 00z runs. Remarkable. They're impressive. In addition, with the slower but steady improvement in 500 mb on recent GFS runs and slow increase in qpf since 12/31 18z, perhaps things are trending toward a somewhat larger snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah someone explain the excitement because this went towards the gfs solution with the two lows and lighter qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 .5+ for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm not constantly negative. And I actually do not agree. It is backing off a good deal Credit where due. Surface did not show what the upper levels seemed to indicate. Still a healthy 6-9" with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guess the GFS/Euro were onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah someone explain the excitement because this went towards the gfs solution with the two lows and lighter qpf The run illustrates a high degree of potential even if it does not fully deliver. Small details will, in the end, have a very big impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM always plays catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guess the GFS/Euro were onto something. chop the NAM QPF totals in half and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This run was really close to a big storm. It didn't translate to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The run illustrates a high degree of potential even if it does not fully deliver. Small details will, in the end, have a very big impact. If the low on Artic front becomes primary low & pulled as little as 50 miles to the west - to say the least it would be game on & start to match upper level structure & H7 . Timing of the phase,as always , will be prime importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Stop Talking please & let pros handle analysis. THANK YOU & Happy new year He's right tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What the nam has aloft looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I will say this its only one run of the nam but that 500 mb would suggest a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Come on we all knew the last two runs was just the nam doing what the nam does. This is much more in line with the other guidance. Now we can focus on the rgem and short term models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 He's right tho... Technically. You could tell he was only looking at the surface though. The look aloft argued for a MECS there. And we will likely get it if these trends continue. Oh look, all the negative nellies coming out now. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What the nam has aloft looks great. Almost a little inverted trough in southern jersey. They get close to an inch of QPF. Still .5 + for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Surface much more realistic this run. High 3-4 mb lower over Quebec and low near benchmark also few mb higher. Most NWS offices in Northeast are happy this run lines up pretty well with amounts already forecasted. Lingering trough hinted at by NAM in S.Jersey will need to be watched in further runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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